برآورد ETp بخش جنوبی حوضه ارس بر مبنای برونداد داده‌های مدل CanESM2

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

گروه جغرافیای طبیعی، دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی، اردبیل، ایران

10.48308/esrj.2023.104049

چکیده

مقدمه: تبخیر و تعرق یکی از مؤلفه­های مهم در بیلان آب است. تخمین تبخیر و تعرق مورد توجه پژوهشگران بسیاری در ایران و جهان بوده است. تخمین دقیق تبخیر و تعرق در مدل­سازی هیدرولوژی، طراحی آبیاری و مدیریت منابع آب اهمیت زیادی دارد. این متغیر یکی از مؤلفه­های بسیار مهم و مؤثر در بیلان آب است. تبخیر و تعرق بعد از بارش به­ عنوان دومین مؤلفه بزرگ چرخه آب زمین در مقیاس جهانی محسوب می­شود. ارزیابی وضعیت اقلیم دوره آینده و تغییر اقلیم و اثرات آن از طریق خروجی مدل­های اقلیمی انجام می­شود.
مواد و روش­ها: در این پژوهش، داده­های روزانه متوسط حداقل و حداکثر دما به‌ منظور ترسیم دورنمای ETp به روش هارگریوز-سامانی تا دهه 2050 میلادی برای 6 ایستگاه سینوپتیک بخش جنوبی حوضه آبریز رودخانه ارس براساس مدل CanESM2 تحت سناریوهای RCP با استفاده از SDSM ریزمقیاس شد. بدین منظور، داده­های مشاهداتی ایستگاه­ها و داده­های بازتحلیل (NCEP) در بازه زمانی روزانه (2005-1985) و نیز داده­های تاریخی مدل (historical-2005) CanESM2 تحت سناریوهای RCP (برای بازه زمانی 2100-2006) به کار رفته است.
بحث و نتایج: مقادیر ETp تخمینی برای حوضه ارس طی دوره آتی براساس ریزمقیاس­نمایی داده­های دمایی مدل CanESM2 تحت سناریوهای RCP نشان داد مقدار این متغیر تحت سناریوی RCP2.6 نسبت به دوره پایه، کاهش جزئی و تحت سناریوهای RCP4.5 و RCP8.5 افزایش جزئی خواهد داشت. مقدار ETp در این حوضه ایستگاه اردبیل، اهر و خوی تغییر کاهشی و در پارس­آباد و جلفا تغییر افزایشی خواهند داشت. مقدار ETp ماهانه حوضه ارس در دوره آینده در ژانویه، آوریل تا ژوئن و اوت با دامنه­ای بین 1/0 تا حداکثر 3/24 میلی­متر نسبت به دوره پایه افزایشی برآورد شد. مقایسه مقادیر ETp برآوردی دوره آینده و گذشته نشان داد که ETp برآوردی به روش هارگریوز -سامانی در دوره گذشته نسبت به داده تبخیر ایستگاهی به‌ جز پارس­آباد و خوی بیش از 100 میلی­متر در سال بیش ­برآورد و در سایر ایستگاه­ها کم­برآورد می­کند. مقادیر ETp هارگریوز - سامانی به‌ جز ماکو که در دوره 2005-1985 بیشتر از 2005-1992 است، در بقیه ایستگاه­ها در 2005-1992 بزرگ‌تر از مقادیر دوره پایه است.
نتیجه ­گیری: مقادیر ETp تخمینی برای حوضه ارس طی دوره آتی نشان داد که مقدار این متغیر در سطح حوضه سالانه نسبت به ETp دوره پایه (به روش هارگریوز -سامانی) افزایش جزئی خواهد یافت که این افزایش به معنی افزایش نیاز آبی گیاهان در آینده در فصل رشد، کاهش نفوذ و افزایش تبخیر آب حاصل از بارندگی و ذوب برف و کاهش تغذیه آبخوان­ها است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Estimation of ETp in the southern part of Aras Basin based on CanESM2 model data

نویسندگان [English]

  • Bromand Salahi
  • Mahnaz Saber
Department of Physical Geography, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, Iran
چکیده [English]

Introduction: Evapotranspiration is one of the important components of water balance. Estimation of evapotranspiration has been the focus of many researchers in Iran and the world. Accurate estimation of evapotranspiration is very important in hydrological modeling, irrigation design, and water resources management. This variable is one of the most important and effective components in the water balance. Evapotranspiration after rainfall is considered the second largest component of the earth's water cycle on a global scale. The assessment of the future climate and climate change and its effects is done through the output of climate models.
Materials and Methods: In this research, the average daily minimum and maximum temperature data were scaled according to the CanESM2 model under RCP scenarios using the SDSM for 6 synoptic stations in the southern part of the Aras River basin to draw the perspective of ETp using the Hargreaves-Samani method until the 2050s. For this purpose, observational data of stations and reanalysis data (NCEP) in the daily period (1985-2005) as well as historical data of the CanESM2 model (historical-2005) under RCP scenarios (for the period 2006-2100) has been used.
Results and Discussion: Estimated ETp values for the Aras basin during the coming period based on the downscaled temperature data of the CanESM2 model under RCP scenarios showed that the value of this variable under the RCP2.6 scenario compared to the base period, slightly decreased and under the RCP4.5 and RCP8 scenarios will have a slight increase. The amount of ETp in this basin will have a decreasing change in the Ardabil, Ahar, and Khoi stations and an increasing change in the Pars-Abad and Jolfa stations. The monthly ETp value of the Aras basin in the future period in January, April to June, and August was estimated to increase with a range between 0.1 to a maximum of 24.3 mm compared to the base period. Comparing the estimated ETp values of the future and the past period showed that the ETp estimated by the Hargreaves-Samani method in the past period compared to the evaporation data of stations except Pars-Abad and Khoi was overestimated by more than 100 mm per year, and it was less in other stations. Hargreaves-Samani ETp values, except for Mako, which is higher from 1985 to 2005 than in 1992-2005, in the other stations in the period of 1992-2005 are greater than the values of the base period.
Conclusion: The estimated ETp values for the Aras basin during the coming period showed that the value of this variable at the annual basin level will increase slightly compared to the ETp of the base period (by the Hargreaves-Samani method), which means that the water requirement of plants will increase in the future in the growing season and this increase means an increase in the water requirement of plants in the future in the growing season, a decrease in infiltration and an increase in evaporation of water resulting from rainfall and snow melting, and a decrease in the feeding of aquifers.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Aras
  • Potential evapotranspiration
  • CMIP5
  • CanESM2 model

مراجع

Aalijahan, M., Salahi, B. and Hatami, D., 2021. Investigating the relationship between changes in atmospheric greenhouse gases and discharge fluctuations in the Basin of Aras River, International Journal of Geography and Geography Education (IGGE), v. 44, p. 461-474. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/352088704
Ahmadi, A., Khoramian, A., & Safavi, H., 2015. Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Snow-Runoff Processes a Case Study‌: Zayandehroud River Basin. Iran-Water Resources Research, v. 11(2), p. 70-82 (in Persian).
Arora, V.K. and Boer, G.J., 2010. Uncertainties in the 20th century carbon budget associated with land use change, Glob. Change Biol, v. 16(12), p. 3327-3348, Doi:10.1111/j.1365- 2486.2010.02202.x
Chen, Y., Xia, J., Liang, Sh., Eeng, J. et al, 2014. Comparison of satellite-based evapotranspiration models over terrestrial ecosystems in China, Remote Sensing of Environment, v. 140, p. 279-293.
Chylek, P., Li, J., Dubey, M.K., Wang, M. and Lesins, G., 2011. Observed and model simulated 20th century Arctic temperature variability: Canadian Earth System Model CanESM2, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions, v. 11, p. 22893-22907.
Dinpazhooh, Y, Jahanbakhsh Asl, S, Foroughi, M., 2019. Sensitivity analysis of reference crop evapotranspiration to change in meteorological parameters in north-west and west of Iran. Journal of water and soil resources conservation, v. 8(2), p. 1-14 (in Persian).
Dong Phuong, D.N., Duong, T.Q., Liem, N.D., Quynh Tram, V.N., Cuong, D.K. & Kim Loi, N., 2020. Projections of Future Climate Change in the Vu Gia Thu Bon River Basin, Vietnam by Using Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM). Water, v. 12, p. 75-95, Doi:10.3390/w12030755
Esfandiari, F., Ali-Jahan, M., Rahimi, M., Mehrovarz, A., 2013. Statistical detection of the effect of global warming on the discharge anomalies of Aras river basin, Quantitative Geomorphological Research, 1(4), p. 43-60 (in Persian).
Esmaeilpour, M., & Dinpazhooh, Y., (2012). Analyzing long term trend of potential evapotranspiration in the Southern parts of the Aras river basin. Geography and Environmental Planning, v. 23(3), p. 193-210 (in Persian).
Esmaeilpour, M., 2016. Assessment of water balance for agricultural use in the southern basin of Aras River, master's thesis, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, University of Tabriz (in Persian).
Farid Giglou, B., Ghazavi, R., & Dokhani, S., 2020. Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Aras River Flow (Case Study: Ardabil Province). Iran-Water Resources Research, v. 16(3), p. 198-211 (in Persian).
Farrokhzadeh, B, Choobeh, S, Bazrafshan, O., 2020. Assessing the climate change effects on Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), case study: Latian dam. Journal of rainwater catchment systems, v. 8(3(26)), p. 59-72 (in Persian).
Fataei, E., Aziz, A. I., Seiied Safaviyan, S. T., Imani, A. A., Ojaghi, A., & Farhadi, H., 2017. Prediction of the changes in some climate variables in Darehrood River of Aras Basin over next decades using of GCM Models. v. 11(39), p. 1-13 (in Persian).
Feng Huang, Y., Tat Ang, J., Jie Tiong, Y., Mirzaei, M. and Mat Amin, M.Z., 2016. Drought Forecasting using SPI and EDI under RCP-8.5 Climate Change Scenarios for Langat River Basin, Malaysia, Procedia Engineering, v. 154, p. 710-717.
Goodarzi M, salahi B, Hosseini A., 2016. Performance Analysis of LARS-WG and SDSM Downscaling Models in Simulation of Climate Changes in Urmia Lake Basin. Jwmseir. 9(31), p. 11-23 (in Persian).
Heshmati, F., & Sayari, N., 2021. Projected changes of potential evapotranspiration under RCP climate change scenarios (Case study: Bandar Anzali). Journal of Agricultural Meteorology, v. 9(1), p. 63-76 (in Persian).
Hafezparast, M. and Sharifazari, S., 2016. Impact of Climate Change on the Inflow of the Aras, Ghorichai and Sattarkhan Dams, Journal of Multidisciplinary Engineering Science Studies (JMESS), v. 2(8), p. 782-797.
Harrison, L.S., 2014. Impacts of Climate Variability on Surface Energy and Water Budgets in sub-Saharan Africa. PH.D. dissertation in Geography. University of California.
Jahanbakhsh, S., Rezaee Banafshe, M., Esmaeelpour, M., & Tadayoni, M., 2012. The Evaluation of Potential Evapotranspiration Estimation Models and Its Spatial Distribution in the Southern Basin of Aras River. Geography and Planning, v. 16(40), p. 25-46 (in Persian).
Javadizadeh, F., Kardavani, P., Alijani, B., Asadian, F., 2017. The effectiveness of SDSM statistical exponential microscale model models in predicting temperature parameters. Physical Geography Quarterly, v. 11(42), p. 47-66 (in Persian).
Kalanki, M., & karandish, F., (2015). Predicting The Long-term Effect of Climate Change on Climatic Variables in Humid Region. Irrigation and Water Engineering, v. 5(4), p. 131-149 (in Persian).
Khalil, A.A., 2013. Effect of climate change on evapotranspiration in Egypt. Central Laboratory for Agricultural Climate (CLAC)-Agricultural Research Center (ARC)-Ministry of Agriculture and Land Reclamation- Dokki, Giza, Egypt. Researcher, v. 5(1), p. 7-12.
Large, W.G., Danabasoglu, G., McWilliams, J., Gent, P. and Bryan, F., 2001. Equatorial circulation of a global ocean climate model with aniostropic horizontal viscosity, J. Phys. Oceanogr, v. 31, p. 518-536.
Liu, Z., Herman, J.D., Huang, G., Kadir, T. and Dahlke, H., 2020. Identifying climate change impacts on surface water supply in the southern 1 Central Valley, California. https://www.elsevier.com/open-access/userlicense/1.0/
Mirgol, B., Nazari, M. and Eteghadipour, M., 2020. Modelling Climate Change Impact on Irrigation Water Requirement and Yield ofWinter Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.), Barley (Hordeum vulgare L.), and Fodder Maize (Zea mays L.) in the Semi-Arid Qazvin Plateau, Iran. Agriculture, v. 10 (60), p. 1-14.
 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/agriculture10030060
Rezaei, M., Nohtani, M., Moghaddamnia, A., Abkar, A., & Rezaei, M., 2014. Performance Evaluation of Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) in Forecasting Precipitation in two Arid and Hyper arid Regions. Water and Soil, v. 28(4), p. 836-845 (in Persian).
Salahi, B., Khorshiddust, A., Qavidel Rahimi, Y., 2016. The relationship between North Atlantic atmospheric-oceanic circulation fluctuations and droughts in East Azerbaijan, Geographical Research, v. 60, p.  156-147 (in Persian).
Simmons, H.L., Laurent, S., Jayne, S. and Weaver, A., 2004. Tidally driven mixing in a numerical model of the ocean general circulation. Ocean Modell, v. 6, p. 245-263. Doi:10.1016/S1463- 5003(03)00011-8.
Sorman, A.A., Tas, E. and Dogan, Y.O., 2020. Comparison of hydrological models in upper Aras Basin. Pamukkale Univ Muh Bilim Derg, v. 26(6), p. 1015-1022.
Vaziri, ZH., Salamat, A., Entesari, M., Meschi, M., Heydari, N., Dehghani-Sanich, H., 2017. Evaporation-transpiration of plants (instructions for calculating the water required by plants). Translation and editing: Working group for sustainable use of water resources for the production of agricultural products, National Irrigation and Drainage Committee of Iran, first edition, Tehran: National Irrigation and Drainage Committee of Iran, 355 p (in Persian).
Zahabion, B., Gudarzi M., Masah-Bavani, A., 2019. The application of SWAT model in the estimation of watershed runoff in future periods under the conditions of climate change, Climatology Research, v. 1 & 2, p. 43-58 (in Persian).
Zoheyri, Z., ghazavi, R., omidvar, E., & Davudi_rad, A., 2020. Comparison of LARS-WG and SDSM Downscaling Models for Prediction Temperature and Precipitation Changes under RCP Scenarios. Journal of Arid Regions Geographic Studies, v. 11(40), p. 39-52 (in Persian).
Zoratipour, E., SoltaniMohammadi, A., & Baradaran, F., 2018. Investigating the effect of climate change on Increasing thetemperature and potential evapotranspiration using SDSM model in Ahvaz city. Journal of Water Science & Engineering, v. 7(18), p. 47-56 (in Persian).
Zulkarnain, H., Supiah, S. and Sabri, H., 2014. Application of SDSM and LARS-WG for simulating and downscaling of rainfall and temperature, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, v. 116, p. 243-257
پژوهشهای دانش زمین
دوره 15، شماره 1 - شماره پیاپی 57
پژوهشی
فروردین 1403
صفحه 84-98

فایل ها

هم رسانی

ارجاع به این مقاله

آمار