برآورد ETp بخش جنوبی حوضه ارس بر مبنای برونداد داده‌های مدل CanESM2

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

گروه جغرافیای طبیعی، دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی، اردبیل، ایران

چکیده

مقدمه: تبخیر و تعرق یکی از مؤلفه­های مهم در بیلان آب است. تخمین تبخیر و تعرق مورد توجه پژوهشگران بسیاری در ایران و جهان بوده است. تخمین دقیق تبخیر و تعرق در مدل­سازی هیدرولوژی، طراحی آبیاری و مدیریت منابع آب اهمیت زیادی دارد. این متغیر یکی از مؤلفه­های بسیار مهم و مؤثر در بیلان آب است. تبخیر و تعرق بعد از بارش به­ عنوان دومین مؤلفه بزرگ چرخه آب زمین در مقیاس جهانی محسوب می­شود. ارزیابی وضعیت اقلیم دوره آینده و تغییر اقلیم و اثرات آن از طریق خروجی مدل­های اقلیمی انجام می­شود.
مواد و روش­ها: در این پژوهش، داده­های روزانه متوسط حداقل و حداکثر دما به‌ منظور ترسیم دورنمای ETp به روش هارگریوز-سامانی تا دهه 2050 میلادی برای 6 ایستگاه سینوپتیک بخش جنوبی حوضه آبریز رودخانه ارس براساس مدل CanESM2 تحت سناریوهای RCP با استفاده از SDSM ریزمقیاس شد. بدین منظور، داده­های مشاهداتی ایستگاه­ها و داده­های بازتحلیل (NCEP) در بازه زمانی روزانه (2005-1985) و نیز داده­های تاریخی مدل (historical-2005) CanESM2 تحت سناریوهای RCP (برای بازه زمانی 2100-2006) به کار رفته است.
بحث و نتایج: مقادیر ETp تخمینی برای حوضه ارس طی دوره آتی براساس ریزمقیاس­نمایی داده­های دمایی مدل CanESM2 تحت سناریوهای RCP نشان داد مقدار این متغیر تحت سناریوی RCP2.6 نسبت به دوره پایه، کاهش جزئی و تحت سناریوهای RCP4.5 و RCP8.5 افزایش جزئی خواهد داشت. مقدار ETp در این حوضه ایستگاه اردبیل، اهر و خوی تغییر کاهشی و در پارس­آباد و جلفا تغییر افزایشی خواهند داشت. مقدار ETp ماهانه حوضه ارس در دوره آینده در ژانویه، آوریل تا ژوئن و اوت با دامنه­ای بین 1/0 تا حداکثر 3/24 میلی­متر نسبت به دوره پایه افزایشی برآورد شد. مقایسه مقادیر ETp برآوردی دوره آینده و گذشته نشان داد که ETp برآوردی به روش هارگریوز -سامانی در دوره گذشته نسبت به داده تبخیر ایستگاهی به‌ جز پارس­آباد و خوی بیش از 100 میلی­متر در سال بیش ­برآورد و در سایر ایستگاه­ها کم­برآورد می­کند. مقادیر ETp هارگریوز - سامانی به‌ جز ماکو که در دوره 2005-1985 بیشتر از 2005-1992 است، در بقیه ایستگاه­ها در 2005-1992 بزرگ‌تر از مقادیر دوره پایه است.
نتیجه ­گیری: مقادیر ETp تخمینی برای حوضه ارس طی دوره آتی نشان داد که مقدار این متغیر در سطح حوضه سالانه نسبت به ETp دوره پایه (به روش هارگریوز -سامانی) افزایش جزئی خواهد یافت که این افزایش به معنی افزایش نیاز آبی گیاهان در آینده در فصل رشد، کاهش نفوذ و افزایش تبخیر آب حاصل از بارندگی و ذوب برف و کاهش تغذیه آبخوان­ها است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Estimation of ETp in the southern part of Aras Basin based on CanESM2 model data

نویسندگان [English]

  • Bromand Salahi
  • Mahnaz Saber
Department of Physical Geography, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, Iran
چکیده [English]

Introduction: Evapotranspiration is one of the important components of water balance. Estimation of evapotranspiration has been the focus of many researchers in Iran and the world. Accurate estimation of evapotranspiration is very important in hydrological modeling, irrigation design, and water resources management. This variable is one of the most important and effective components in the water balance. Evapotranspiration after rainfall is considered the second largest component of the earth's water cycle on a global scale. The assessment of the future climate and climate change and its effects is done through the output of climate models.
Materials and Methods: In this research, the average daily minimum and maximum temperature data were scaled according to the CanESM2 model under RCP scenarios using the SDSM for 6 synoptic stations in the southern part of the Aras River basin to draw the perspective of ETp using the Hargreaves-Samani method until the 2050s. For this purpose, observational data of stations and reanalysis data (NCEP) in the daily period (1985-2005) as well as historical data of the CanESM2 model (historical-2005) under RCP scenarios (for the period 2006-2100) has been used.
Results and Discussion: Estimated ETp values for the Aras basin during the coming period based on the downscaled temperature data of the CanESM2 model under RCP scenarios showed that the value of this variable under the RCP2.6 scenario compared to the base period, slightly decreased and under the RCP4.5 and RCP8 scenarios will have a slight increase. The amount of ETp in this basin will have a decreasing change in the Ardabil, Ahar, and Khoi stations and an increasing change in the Pars-Abad and Jolfa stations. The monthly ETp value of the Aras basin in the future period in January, April to June, and August was estimated to increase with a range between 0.1 to a maximum of 24.3 mm compared to the base period. Comparing the estimated ETp values of the future and the past period showed that the ETp estimated by the Hargreaves-Samani method in the past period compared to the evaporation data of stations except Pars-Abad and Khoi was overestimated by more than 100 mm per year, and it was less in other stations. Hargreaves-Samani ETp values, except for Mako, which is higher from 1985 to 2005 than in 1992-2005, in the other stations in the period of 1992-2005 are greater than the values of the base period.
Conclusion: The estimated ETp values for the Aras basin during the coming period showed that the value of this variable at the annual basin level will increase slightly compared to the ETp of the base period (by the Hargreaves-Samani method), which means that the water requirement of plants will increase in the future in the growing season and this increase means an increase in the water requirement of plants in the future in the growing season, a decrease in infiltration and an increase in evaporation of water resulting from rainfall and snow melting, and a decrease in the feeding of aquifers.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Aras
  • Potential evapotranspiration
  • CMIP5
  • CanESM2 model

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