شناسایی و ردیابی کم‌ارتفاع‌های بریده موثر در بارش‌های سنگین ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه جغرافیای طبیعی، دانشکده علوم زمین، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران

2 گروه سنجش از دور و GIS، دانشکده علوم زمین، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران

3 دانشگاه پیام نور تهران، واحد پرند، تهران، ایران

چکیده

مقدمه
کم‌ارتفاع­های بریده، سیکلون­های هسته سرد در وردسپهر فوقانی هستند که معمولاً به عنوان کمینه­های محلی میدان­های ارتفاع ژئوپتانسیل در محدوده سطوح 500 و 200 هکتوپاسکال شناسایی می­شوند (Muñoz et al, 2020; Pinheiro et al, 2017; Nito et al, 2008;). کم‌ارتفاع­های بریده در بیشتر فصول سال و اغلب در اواخر زمستان و اوایل بهار جلوه می­کنند. یکی از الگوهای همدیدی موثر در دما و بارش و همچنین بارش­های سنگین در ایران، کم‌ارتفاع­های بریده هستند. این پژوهش با توجه به اهمیت و ارتباط بین کم‌ارتفاع­های بریده و بارش­های سنگین در دوره آماری 33 ساله (2018 -1986) تدوین شده است. در این پژوهش به اقلیم­شناسی سیستم­های کم‌ارتفاع­ بریده سطح 500 هکتوپاسکال نیم­کره شمالی موثر در بارش سنگین ایران پرداخته شد. برای شناسایی و ردیابی کم‌ارتفاع­های­ بریده از داده­های بازتحلیل شده سایت ECMWF، و کم‌ارتفاع­های بریده­ با عمر بیش از 48 ساعت در دوره آماری 33 سال (2018 - 1986) استفاده شد. داده­های ارتفاع ژئوپتانسیل، باد مداری و دمای تراز 500 هکتوپاسکال نیز برای تحلیل همدید به کار رفت.
مواد و روش­ها
در این پژوهش از داده­های متوسط روزانه: ارتفاع ژئوپتانسیل، باد مداری و دمای تراز 500 هکتوپاسکال باز تحلیل شده ECMWF سایت اروپا با گام شبکه­ای 125/0 * 125/0 درجه­ای در دوره آماری 33 سال (1986 - 2018) در منطقه­ای شامل 0 تا 80 درجه عرض شمالی و 0 تا 80 درجه طول شرقی استفاده شد. برای شناسایی کم‌ارتفاع­های بریده از شاخص تیبالدی-مولتنی استفاده گردید. و کم‌ارتفاع­های بریده­ای که در بارش سنگین ایران موثر بودند مورد مطالعه قرار گرفت.
نتایج و بحث
توزیع سالانه، ماهانه و فصلی کم‌ارتفاع­های بریده در طول دوره آماری
در دوره آماری 33 سال (2018 -1986) در مجموع 632 رخداد کم‌ارتفاع بریده با طول عمر 2 روز و بیشتر با میانگین 87/18 رخداد برای هر سال شناسایی شد. خط روند یا رگرسیون در طول دوره آماری نشان می­دهد مقدار کم‌ارتفاع­های بریده رو به افزایش است.
سهم کم‌ارتفاع بریده در بارش سنگین مناطق چهارگانه ایران
در منطقه شمال­غرب ایران بیشترین درصد اثر کم‌ارتفاع­های بریده بر بارش سنگین به ­ترتیب در ایستگاه­های کاشان، تکاب، مهاباد، مراغه و تبریز و کمترین درصد تاثیر این پدیده در بارش سنگین به ­ترتیب در ایستگاه­های خرم­آباد، کرج، بابلسر و پارس­آباد بود. در منطقه جنوب­شرق بیشترین درصد تاثیر در ایستگاه­های چابهار، بندرعباس و سیرجان و کمترین درصد تاثیر در ایستگاه­های جاسک، زابل، خاش بوده است. در منطقه جنوب­غرب بیشترین درصد تاثیر در ایستگاه­های بوشهر و کیش و کمترین تاثیر در ایستگاه­های امیدیه و مسجدسلیمان است. در شمال­شرق بیشترین درصد تاثیر در ایستگاه­های بیرجند، فردوس و طبس و کمترین تاثیر در ایستگاه­های گرگان، مشهد، قوچان و بجنورد بوده است.
مقدار بارش سنگین و تاثیر کم‌ارتفاع بریده در آن در مناطق مختلف و ایران
بیشترین رخداد بارش سنگین در اثر کم‌ارتفاع بریده در منطقه شمال­غرب با (62/36 رخداد) و کمترین در منطقه جنوب­شرق با (5/8 رخداد) بوده است. در ایستگاه­های مطالعاتی پژوهش (76 ایستگاه) نیز فراوانی رخداد بارش سنگین در طول دوره مطالعاتی به­طور میانیگن (76/124 رخداد) بوده است و تاثیر کم‌ارتفاع بریده در بارش سنگین در کل (1/26 رخداد) در ایستگاه­ها بوده است.
نتیجه ­گیری
در مجموع 632 کم‌ارتفاع بریده با طول عمر 2 روز و بیشتر در منطقه پژوهش شناسایی شد. خط روند طول دوره آماری دارای شیب ملایم مثبت و افزایشی است، بیشترین رخداد کم‌ارتفاع بریده در ماه­های اکتبر، مارس و ژانویه است. کمترین فراوانی رخداد کم‌ارتفاع بریده در ماه­های جولای، آگوست و ژوئن است. از لحاظ فصلی، بیشترین تعداد رخداد کم‌ارتفاع بریده در فصول بهار، زمستان و پاییز بود. همچنین بیشترین رخداد بارش سنگین تحت­تاثیر کم‌ارتفاع بریده در منطقه شمال­غرب و کمترین در منطقه جنوب­شرق در طول دوره مطالعاتی بوده است. بنابراین می­توان نتیجه گرفت که ورود کم‌ارتفاع­های بریده از شمال­غرب و نزدیکی منطقه شمال­غرب به محل تشکیل کم‌ارتفاع­های بریده می­تواند عامل فراوانی بیشترین رخداد بارش سنگین تحت­تاثیر کم ارتفاع بریده باشد. همچنین دوری منطقه جنوب­شرق از کم‌ارتفاع­های بریده، تاثیر کم این پدیده در بارش سنگین این منطقه را نشان می­دهد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Identifying and tracking cut-off lows effective in Iranian heavy rains

نویسندگان [English]

  • shahram lotfi gharanchai 1
  • Tayebeh Akbari Azirani 1
  • Alireza Shakoba 2
  • Amemeh Dasht Bozorgi 2
  • Fatemeh Rabbani 3
1 Department of Physical Geography, Faculty of earth sciences, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran
2 Department of R.S. and GIS Studies, Faculty of earth sciences, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran
3 Payam Noor University, Parand Branch, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Introduction
Cut-off  lows are cold -core cyclones in the upper troposphere that are identified as local minimums of geopotential elevation fields in the range of 500 and 200 hPa )Nito et al, 2008; Pinheiro et al, 2017; Muñoz et al, 2020(. Cut-off lows occur in most seasons, often in late winter and early spring. One of the synoptic patterns affecting temperature and precipitation as well as heavy rainfall in Iran is cut-off lows. This study has been compiled according to the importance and relationship between cut-off lows and heavy rainfall in the statistical period of 33 years (1986-2018). In this study, the climatology of cut-off lows systems at the level of 500 hPa of the northern hemisphere effective on heavy rainfall in Iran has been discussed. The ECMWF reanalysis data were used to identify and track cut-off lows that lasted for more than 48 hours in the statistical period of 33 years (1986-2018). For this purpose, geopotential, wind, and temperature data also were used.
 
Materials and Methods
In this study, from the average daily data: Geopotential height, wind orbit, and temperature level of 500 hPa of the re-analyzed ECMWF European site with a grid step of 0.125 * 0.125 in the statistical period of 33 years (1986-2018) Used in areas including 0 to 80 degrees north latitude and 0 to 80 degrees east longitude. The Tibaldi-Multney index was used to identify Cut-Off low. And the Cut-Off lows that were effective in Iran's heavy rainfall were studied.
 
Results and Discussion
Annual, monthly and seasonal distribution of cut-off lows during the statistical period
In the statistical period of 33 years (1986-2018), a total of 632 cut-off lows with a lifespan of 2 days and more were identified. The average was 18.87 days for each year. The trend line or regression during the statistical period shows that the amount of cut-off lows is increasing.
The share of cut-off lows in heavy rainfall in the four regions of Iran
In the northwestern region of Iran, the highest percentage of the effect of shear compressions on heavy rainfall is in Kashan, Takab, Mahabad, Maragheh, and Tabriz stations, respectively. The lowest percentage of the impact of this phenomenon on heavy rainfall was in Khorramabad, Karaj, Babolsar, and Parsabad stations, respectively. In the southeast region, the highest percentage in Chabahar, Bandar Abbas, and Sirjan stations and the lowest percentage were in Jask, Zabol, and Khash stations. In the southwestern region, the highest effect is in Bushehr and Kish stations and the least effect is in Omidieh and Masjed Soleiman stations. In the Northeast, the highest share was in Birjand, Ferdows, and Tabas stations and the lowest impact was in Gorgan, Mashhad, Quchan, and Bojnourd stations.
The amount of heavy rainfall and the effect of cut-off lows in it in different regions and Iran
The highest occurrence of heavy rainfall due to cut-off lows was in the northwest region with (36.62 occurrences) and the lowest in the southeast region with (8.5 occurrences). In research study stations (76 stations), the frequency of heavy rainfall during the study period was average (124.76 events) and the effect of shear cut-off lows on heavy rainfall in total (26.1 events) in the station has been.
 
Conclusion
A total of 632 cut-off lows with a lifespan of 2 days or more were identified in the research area. The trend line of the statistical period has a slight positive and increasing slope; the most occurrences of cut-off lows is in October, March, and January. The lowest incidence of cut-off lows is in July, August, and June. Seasonally, the highest number of cut-off low events was in spring, winter, and autumn. The highest occurrence of heavy rainfall under the influence cut-off lows was in the northwest region and the lowest in the southeast region during the study period. Therefore, it can be concluded that the entry of cut-off lows from the northwest and the proximity of the northwest region to the formation location of cut-off lows may be a factor contributing to the highest frequency of heavy precipitation events influenced by cut-off lows. Furthermore, the distance of the southeast region from cut-off lows indicates a lesser impact of this phenomenon on heavy precipitation in this area.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • IRAN
  • Heavy Rain
  • Jet Stream
  • Index (TIBALDI - MULTENI)
  • Cut-Off Lows

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پژوهشهای دانش زمین
دوره 15، شماره 3 - شماره پیاپی 59
پژوهشی
شهریور 1403
صفحه 137-155

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