نوع مقاله : علمی -پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 گروه جغرافیای طبیعی، دانشکده ادبیات و علوم انسانی، دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی، اردبیل، ایران
2 گروه علوم محیطی، پژوهشکده انگور و کشمش، دانشگاه ملایر، ملایر، ایران
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
IntroductionGlobal warming leads to rising ocean water levels, Destruction of pastures and environment, desertification, and an increase in extreme events such as droughts and sand storms, heat waves, storms and flooding of rivers. Wind energy is essential because it reduces greenhouse gases and global warming once compared with thermal power plants while producing a unit of energy. Wind power has been generated in 103 countries, and in 2013, about 318529 MW of electricity was generated by this method which is about 4 percent of the world's electricity, it could reach 700,000 MW in 2020. In this study, with regard to global warming and its effects on the potential of wind energy in different parts of the world, the potential for wind power was examined in the coming years.Materials and methodsTo simulate the wind speed at Ardabil station for the 2021-2040, CGCM1 model under RCP4.5 scenario and the SDSM model were used. Subsequently, the Weibull distribution function, which suits the wind speed data, especially in the range of wind turbine speeds, was used to determine the potential of wind energy in wind turbines to generate electricity and estimate its output energy for the future climate of Ardabil station. Also wind energy was calculated for the next two decades (2021-2030 and 2030-2040).Results and DiscussionIn the base period (1992-2012) and the future (2021-2040), the average wind speed is between 3 and 5 m/s which are 3.75 and 4.34 m/s in the base period and future, respectively. Then, an increase of 1.9 m/s for the wind speed in the future (2021-2040) compared to base period may occur. The wind power density at 10m height will be 440.3 and 492.8 w/m2 in the first (2021-203) and second decades (2031-2040), respectively. The wind power density at 30m was calculated to be 500 w/m2 at the base period; but it will be more than 600 w/m2 in the future, which can generate more energy compared to the base period. The wind power density at 50 m height was calculated to be 800 w/m2 at the base period; but it will be more than 1000 w/m2 in the future. The most wind density at the height of 10m in the first and second decades of the future will be at the speed of 11.26 and 12 m/s, respectively. The speed of 11 to 17 m / s will have the highest frequency of wind speed in the future decades. The availability of wind hours will be more than 4000 hours per year. Wind will be available at Ardabil station in more than 50 percent of the year. About 3000 hours of wind speed will be more than 4 m/s which is the winding speed of turbines and in these hours, turbines will spin and generate energy.ConclusionGlobal warming will increase wind speed by about 14% during 2021-2040 which is suitable to provide energy from wind turbine rotation. The wind power will reach over 1000 w/m2 at a height of 50 m, which will be economically viable. Using this renewable energy can play a direct role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
کلیدواژهها [English]