https://esrj.sbu.ac.ir/ Researches in Earth Sciences en daily 1 Sat, 21 Mar 2026 00:00:00 +0330 Sat, 21 Mar 2026 00:00:00 +0330 https://esrj.sbu.ac.ir/article_106663.html IntroductionMarls are one of the most important sedimentary units in Iran, which have high sedimentation and erodibility in terms of physical-chemical properties. This property of marls has caused a lot of environmental and construction damage, and therefore it is necessary to study the erosion and sedimentation of marl units. The factors affecting marl erosion are very many, and it has a very complex process, so that it is a function of external factors such as rainfall distribution and internal factors such as physical properties of soil and clay minerals. Accordingly, in studying the erosion and sedimentation potential of marls, it is necessary to pay careful attention to the type, physical and chemical properties and their relationship with the formation and spread of erosion types, as well as to the weather conditions, hydraulic and hydrological behaviors, topographic conditions, and current land use. It is obvious that a general judgment based on quantitative figures and numbers about the results of the research conducted, which is case-specific and regional, is not possible and scientific. Accordingly, it is not possible and logical to use the results obtained from them with complete confidence on a wide scale. But what is certain is that the approaches mentioned are steps that have been taken based on the knowledge and study of marls and confirm that the strategies for estimating erosion and sedimentation in marl areas cannot be based 100% on the common principles in the presented models that are used in watershed management today, but rather it is necessary to provide scientific and practical guidelines on how to investigate erosion and sedimentation potential in marls by completing the studies and research. In addition, the approaches mentioned should be calibrated and tested repeatedly in climatic conditions, topography, and in marl areas that differ in terms of physical and chemical properties. The occurrence and formation of types of erosion in marls is so widespread that it requires special research on the types of marls with erosive forms. Determining the physical, mechanical, and chemical characteristics of marls and investigating the relationship between the type of erosion and these characteristics are very effective and practical in determining and adopting effective strategies to curb erosion and sedimentation of marl fields, but they have received less attention in watershed plans. The result has been the implementation of management and implementation of operations, which, especially before the 1981, led to the failure of plans and the intended goals were not achieved. The occurrence and formation of types of erosion in marls is so wide that it requires special research in relation to types of marls with erosion forms.This research investigated the physical and chemical characteristics, forms of erosion and intensity of sedimentation of marl units in Zanjan province.Materials and MethodsThis study investigated the physical and chemical properties, erosion patterns, and sedimentation intensity of marly units in Zanjan province. To analyze the physical and chemical properties of marly units, 120 samples were taken from marly materials of marly units at two depths of 0-10 and 0-30 cm. To prepare the erosion profile map of marly units, 366 working units were created by combining marly unit maps, elevation maps above sea level, slope maps, slope direction maps, and land use maps in a GIS environment, eliminating duplicate units, and processing them. Then, using satellite images, aerial photographs, and conducting field visits and controls, along with completing the BLM scoring tables, the type and profile of erosion in each of the working units were determined. This study investigates the physical and chemical properties, forms of erosion and sedimentation intensity of marl units in Zanjan province. To analyze the physical and chemical properties of marl units, sampling of marl materials of marl units in two depths of 0-10 and 0-30 cm was performed on 120 samples. To provide a map of erosion of marl units by combining maps, marl units, altitude map, slope map, direction map and land use together in GIS environment and by removing duplication and processing units, 366 work units were created. Then, using satellite images, aerial photographs and field study and controls along with completing the BLM method score tables, the type and appearance of erosion in each of the work units was determined. The obtained data were analyzed using SAS and SPSS statistical programs.Results and DiscussionStudy of erosion forms in marl units Based on field studies, the water erosion process is the main erosion process in the region. In general, all the marl units under study have erosion and, according to the physicochemical and environmental characteristics (climate, slope, vegetation, etc.), have different erosion forms. The main erosion forms in the marl units of Zanjan province include raindrop erosion, surface erosion, furrow, ditch, tunnel erosion, thousand-valley erosion, and mass erosion.Comparison of different erosion forms with t-test Different water erosions are seen in marl units, but the dominant erosions in them are sheet and furrow erosion. Therefore, statistical studies have been conducted for these two erosions. Based on the results of comparing pairwise means of erosion using the t-test method for the two dominant erosions, surface and groove, it has been observed that characteristics such as organic matter percentage (OC), sodium absorption ratio (SAR), liquid limit (LL), and plasticity index (PI) have significant differences in both erosions.Studying the effect of physical and chemical variables on erosion forms of marly units Based on the results obtained from variance analysis and comparison of the means related to sheet and groove erosion forms using Duncan's method, the variables of organic matter percentage (carbon percentage), sodium absorption ratio, fluid limit and plasticity index in these two forms of erosion in the marly units of Zanjan province have significant differences, and in other variables, this difference and difference is not significant. Therefore, it is possible to use these characteristics and variables to separate these two forms of erosion in the marly units of the studied area. 3-4- Studying the relationship between the physicochemical properties of marly units and erosion forms since the environmental and physicochemical conditions required for the creation and development of erosion forms are different. Therefore, the erosion forms existing in these marly units are not at the same level in terms of both erosion form and expansion and abundance. Most of these erosion forms can be observed in the studied marl units with different frequency and extent. However, in terms of frequency and extent, the dominant erosion forms in them are surface or sheet erosion, groove and channel erosion. Of course, gully and mass erosion also have a significant frequency and extent in most of the studied marl units. Based on the results obtained, the physicochemical elements in the groove erosion form are more than the plate erosion form, and in fact, it indicates an increase in these elements from plate erosion to groove erosion. Except for the variables Silt, Electrical Conductivity (EC) and Absorbable Phosphorus (PAV), other elements and variables in groove erosion are more than in plate erosion. Accordingly, it can be said that in the groove erosion form, the physicochemical variables are more concentrated and focused, which is due to the greater erosion intensity than in the plate erosion state. Based on the results obtained from the T-test, analysis of variance using the F-test and comparison of means using the Duncan method, theResearches in Earth Sciences       17(1) 2026physicochemical characteristics of sheet and groove erosion forms of marly units, among the 22 physicochemical variables recorded and studied, of these erosion forms, the variables of organic matter percentage (OC), sodium absorption ratio (SAR), liquid limit (LL) and plasticity index (PI) in both surface and groove erosion types had significant differences and it was possible to distinguish between the two erosion forms based on them. Of course, this does not mean that there is no difference between these two erosions in other variables and physicochemical characteristics. Because there are also differences and differences between other variables. But from a statistical point of view, it is said that it is not significant. Therefore, in this regard, these four variables are introduced as distinguishing characteristics between these two erosion forms among marly units existing at the provincial level in this study.ConclusionThe erosion forms present in the marls of Zanjan province include raindrop erosion, surface erosion, furrow erosion, ditch erosion, tunnel erosion, thousand-valley erosion, and mass erosion. However, since the environmental and physicochemical conditions required for the creation and development of erosion forms are different, the erosion forms present in these marl units are not uniform in terms of both the type of erosion form and the extent and frequency. In terms of frequency and extent, the dominant erosion forms in them are surface or sheet erosion, furrow erosion, and channel erosion. Of course, ditch and mass erosion also have a significant frequency and spread in most of the marl units studied. An examination of the differences and changes in the physicochemical properties of the marly working units at two depths of 0-10 and 0-30 cm using the t-test method showed that the marly working units at the above two depths had a high correlation coefficient in most of the physicochemical variables and had significant differences in the variables silt, cation exchange capacity (C.E.C), organic matter percentage (O.C), neutralizable matter percentage (lime percentage) (TNV), dissolved sodium content (NaSol), sodium absorption ratio (SAR), chlorine content (Cl), sulfate (So4), and liquid limit (LL). Based on the results obtained from the T-test, analysis of variance using the F-test and comparison of means using the Duncan method, the physicochemical characteristics of the surface and groove erosion forms of marly units were recorded and studied among 22 physicochemical variables. Of these erosion forms, the variables of organic matter percentage (OC), sodium absorption ratio (SAR), liquid limit (LL) and plasticity index (PI) had significant differences in both surface and groove erosion types, and it is possible to distinguish between these two erosion forms based on them. Therefore, in this regard, these four variables are introduced as distinguishing characteristics between these two erosion forms among the marly units existing in Zanjan province in this study. https://esrj.sbu.ac.ir/article_107027.html Introduction The Natour area is located approximately 33 km south of Kowsar city, Ardabil province, northwestern of Iran. Based on the division of structural zones of Iran (Alavi, 1991), this area is considered a part of the Alborz magmatic arc. The Alborz sedimentary-structural zone includes the northern highlands of the Iranian plate, which continues in a compound anticline with a general east-west trend from Azarbaidjan to Khorasan. Many of the stratigraphic units of Alborz and Central Iran are similar in terms of facies and formation conditions, so that Alborz can be considered as marginal folds of Central Iran, in whose formation the collision of the two Iranian and Turanian plates and its consequences played a fundamental role (Aghanbati, 2004). Alborz is more similar to Central Iran, especially in the southern slope, but there are some differences in the northern slope (Stocklin, 1968). The Alborz magmatic arc encompasses a wide range of tectonic environments, such as normal arc, back-arc, and post-collisional and extensional environments. The Alborz magmatic cycle during the Eocene-Oligocene has resulted in the formation of a wide range of intrusive igneous, subvolcanic, and volcanic-sedimentary rocks. These rocks show calc-alkaline and high-k calc-alkaline and shoshonitic magmatic series. These units include granitic, granodioritic intrusions, basaltic, andesitic, dacite, rhyolite lavas, and their associated tuffs. In the present study, an attempt is made to investigate the geological, petrographic, and geochemical characteristics of volcanic rocks in the Natour area. Also, in this research, based on the results of chemical analyses of major, trace, and rare earth elements, has determined the composition of the volcanic rocks of the area, the parent magma, and their tectonic setting. Materials and Methods In general, this research was conducted in two parts: field and laboratory. First, in the field part, a visit to the study area was carried out to investigate the condition of volcanic rocks, and in the next stage, samples of these rocks were taken for laboratory studies. In the laboratory part, a number of thin sections were prepared from the collected samples and then petrographic studies were performed on them. Also, in order to conduct geochemical studies, 12 fresh and less altered samples of these volcanic rocks were selected and analyzed at the Zanjan Zarazma Company. The major elements were analyzed by XRF method and the trace and rare earth elements were analyzed by ICP-MS method. Results and Discussion Based on geological location, the Natour area is located on the 1:100000 geological map of the Kivi sheet (Hajalilou and Rezaei, 2001). The most important rock units of the study area are related to the Eocene, Oligocene, and Quaternary. Eocene rock units in the area include Eab, Eclt, Ean, and Etr. The Eab unit is the oldest Eocene rock unit in the area and is often observed in the northeast of the Natour area. This unit consists of gray basaltic andesite. The Eclt unit consists of lithic crystalline tuff in gray to reddish gray color and is mostly spread in the central part of Natour area. In some places, this unit itself has interlayers of pyroclastic units such as tuff, lithic tuff, and lithic tuff andesite. The Ean unit includes porphyry andesite to porphyry basaltic andesite, ranging in color from purple to gray, and is often exposed in the southwest of the Natour area. The youngest Eocene unit in the study area includes Etr with trachytic composition and it is often visible in the area in bright color. The trachyte unit is mainly visible in the southwestern part of the Natour area. The Oligocene rock units in the area consist of the Olrc unit, which contains heterogeneous conglomerate (in red) and is usually seen in the north and northeast of the area and discontinuously overlying Eocene volcanic units. According to petrographic studies, the volcanic rocks of the Natour area mainly show a composition of basaltic andesite, andesite, and trachyte. Basaltic andesite rocks have porphyritic and glomeroporphyritic textures, composed of the main minerals plagioclase and pyroxene in a fine-crystalline matrix. Andesite rocks contain the main minerals plagioclase, amphibole, and biotite and have a porphyritic texture in a fine-crystalline matrix. Trachyte rocks also have a porphyritic texture, consisting of alkali feldspar, plagioclase, and biotite minerals in a fine-crystalline matrix. To determine the composition of volcanic rocks in the Natour area, the total alkali (Na2O+K2O) versus silica (SiO2) diagram (Middlemost, 1994) and the Nb/Yb versus Zr/Ti diagram (Pearce, 1996) were used. In the total alkali versus silica diagram, the samples from the study area are in the range of rocks with a composition of andesite, basaltic andesite, basaltic trachyandesite, trachyandesite, trachyte, and trachydacite. In the Nb/Yb versus Zr/Ti diagram, samples from the Natour area are located in the range of andesite, basaltic andesite, trachyandesite, and alkali basalt rocks. In the Al2O3-K2O-Na2O ternary diagram, samples from the Natour area are located in the metaluminous and peraluminous realms. Also, to determine the alumina saturation index of volcanic rocks in the study area, the diagram presented by Shand (1943) was used. In this diagram, the metaluminous, peraluminous, and peralkaline ranges are distinguished. According to this diagram, samples from the Natour area fall into two ranges: metaluminous and peraluminous. The magmatic series of volcanic rocks in the Natour area was initially determined using the diagram of total alkalis (Na2O+K2O) versus silica (SiO2) (Irvine and Baragar, 1971). In this diagram, two ranges of alkaline and subalkaline are separated. Based on this diagram, all samples in the study area belong to the alkaline range. Then, Th/Yb versus Ta/Yb (Pearce, 1983), Co versus Th (Hastie et al, 2007), and SiO2 versus K2O (Peccerillo and Taylor, 1976) diagrams were used to determine the magmatic series of the igneous rocks of the area. These diagrams are divided into the ranges of tholeiitic, calc-alkaline, high-k calc-alkaline, and shoshonitic magmatic series. Based on the Th/Yb versus Ta/Yb diagram, most of the samples in the study area are located in the calc-alkaline magmatic series. According to the Co versus Th diagram, the samples from the Natour area are within the range of calc-alkaline and high-k calc-alkaline and shoshonitic magmatic series. According to the SiO2 versus K2O diagram, the samples from the study area are mainly located in the range of shoshonitic magmatic series. The trend of changes in trace and rare earth elements in samples of volcanic rocks from the Natour area was determined using spider diagrams. In this regard, samples from the study area were normalized to the primitive mantle (Sun and McDonough, 1989) and chondrite (Nakamura, 1974). The spider diagram of the samples normalized to the primitive mantle shows a positive anomaly in large ion lithophile elements (LILE) such as Cs, K, and Pb, and a negative anomaly in high field strength stability elements (HFSE) such as Nb, Zr, and Ti. Positive anomalies of LILE elements and negative anomalies of HFSE elements are characteristics of arc-related regions, whose formation can be associated with subduction zones and contamination of magma with continental crust (Wilson, 1989; Rollinson, 1993; Thuy et al, 2004; Kuscu and Geneli, 2010; Yu et al, 2017). In the spider diagram of samples normalized to chondrite, enrichment of LREE relative to HREE can be identified. Also, a relatively weak depletion of the Ce element is observed in this diagram. The enrichment of LREE relative to HREE can indicate the formation of volcanic rocks in subduction zones or the contamination of magma by crustal materials (Kuster and Harms, 1998; Ulmer, 2001; Srivastava and Singh, 2004;  Peccerillo et al, 2004; Goss and Kay, 2009). The relatively weak depletion of Ce element can most likely be due to the high mobility of this element during the subduction process (Hoyle et al, 1984). Using TiO2-Al2O3 and Y-Zr diagrams (Muller et al, 1992), the tectonic setting of igneous rocks can be interpreted. In these diagrams, the within plate setting and the arc-related setting are separated. Based on these diagrams, all samples of volcanic rocks in the Natour area are placed in the arc-related tectonic setting. To determine the tectonic setting of the volcanic rocks of the Natour area, the Nb/Yb versus Th/Yb diagram (Pearce, 2008) was also used, in which the samples from the study area are located in the tectonic setting associated with volcanic arcs. To distinguish oceanic arc rocks from continental arc and post-collisional arc rocks, the ternary diagram TiO2/100-La-Hf×10 (Muller et al, 1992) can be used. According to this diagram, samples of volcanic rocks from the Natour area are often located in the settings of continental and post-collisional arcs. Also, the Zr×3-Nb×50-Ce/P2O5 ternary diagram (Muller et al, 1992) was used to separate continental arc rocks from post-collisional arc rocks. According to this diagram, the samples related to volcanic rocks of the study area are mainly located in the post-collisional arcs. Conclusion Petrographically, the volcanic rocks of the Natour area represent a composition of basaltic andesite, andesite, and trachyte. These rocks are located in the chemical classification diagrams in the range of andesite, basaltic andesite, trachyandesite, trachyte, trachydacite, and alkali basalt. Volcanic rocks of the Natour area are located in the metaluminous and peraluminous ranges on alumina saturation index determination diagrams. In terms of magmatic series, these rocks represent high-k calc-alkaline and shoshonitic magmatic series. Spider diagrams related to volcanic rocks of the Natour area indicate a positive anomaly in large ion lithophile elements (LILE) and a negative anomaly in high field strength elements (HFSE) and enrichment of LREE relative to HREE, which can indicate the formation of volcanic rocks of the study area in subduction zones or contamination of magma by crustal materials. According to tectonic setting diagrams, the volcanic rocks of the study area were developed in arc-related tectonic settings. Also, in the diagrams of the separation of oceanic arc rocks from continental arc and post-collisional arc rocks, they are placed in the position of post-collisional arcs.   https://esrj.sbu.ac.ir/article_107028.html Introduction Lead–zinc deposits in Iran are distributed across four major structural zones. These tectonic units include: 1) the Sanandaj–Sirjan Zone (SSZ), hosting deposits such as Irankuh (Ghazban et al, 1994), Tiran (Nejadhadad et al, 2018), Dareh Noghreh (Nejadhadad et al, 2023), and Angouran (Boni et al, 2007); 2) the Yazd–Anarak Metallogenic Belt (YAMB) in central Iran, including the world-class Mehdiabad MVT1 Zn–Pb deposit (Reichert et al, 2008; Nejadhadad et al, 2025) and Nakhlak lead mine (Jazi et al, 2017); 3) the Tabas–Posht-e Badam area, hosting Pb–Zn–Ba deposits such as Ozbak-Kuh (Ehya et al, 2014); and 4) the Central Alborz Range, containing deposits like Duna and Ellika (Zabihitabar et al, 2015). The Qamishlu lead deposit is part of the Isfahan–Malayer Pb–Zn metallogenic belt within the Sanandaj–Sirjan metamorphic zone. In this deposit, mineralization occurs predominantly in lower Cretaceous massive limestone, localized along fault surfaces, shear zones, and contacts between Cretaceous carbonate and shale units. The average Zn/(Zn+Pb) ratio is less than 0.1, classifying the mineralization as Pb-rich, analogous to the Viburnum Trend in the USA and the Ravanj deposits in Iran (Plumlee et al, 1994; Nejadhadad et al, 2016). Silver concentrations in pure galena samples average 660 ppm, corresponding to the 50th–75th percentile range of Pb–Zn deposits. A strong Sb–Ag correlation (r = 0.93), compared to moderate As–Ag (r = 0.66) and Cu–Ag (r = 0.6) correlations, suggests that Ag enrichment is controlled by both lattice-bound silver in galena and sulfosalt-hosted phases, including jordanite and the tetrahedrite–freibergite group. Alteration at Qamishlu primarily comprises host rock dolomitization, silicification, and late-stage open-space-filling calcite. Systematic stable isotope analyses (δ¹⁸O and δ¹³C) of late-stage calcite, pure dolomite, dolomitized and silicified mineralized host rocks, weakly altered non-mineralized rocks, and distal fresh limestone indicate isotopic mixing between hydrothermal fluids depleted in ¹⁸O but enriched in organic carbon and the carbonate host rocks. The strong spatial association of mineralization with NE–SW-trending faults, combined with isotopic variations in altered zones, suggests that these structures acted as primary fluid conduits. Open spaces in shear zones along normal faults, coupled with interaction between ore fluids and carbonate host rocks, modified the physicochemical conditions of the metal-bearing fluids, ultimately resulting in the deposition of epigenetic mineralization. Materials and Methods Field Investigation and Sampling Methodology Comprehensive fieldwork was systematically carried out across the ore-bearing zone and adjacent areas, including: 1) detailed geological mapping, 2) structural analysis of fault systems and fracture networks, and 3) representative sampling of all lithological units. Special emphasis was placed on collecting specimens with varied textural features (e.g., massive, brecciated, and vein-type mineralization) from both mineralized and unaltered rocks. Laboratory Processing and Analytical Techniques   A total of 30 thin and polished sections were prepared from the collected samples. Additionally, 12 hand-picked galena specimens were carefully purified under a binocular microscope and submitted to LabWest Laboratory, Western Australia, for ICP-MS analysis. Samples of fresh limestone, mineralized limestone, pre-ore calcite, late-stage calcite, mineralization-related dolomite, quartz, and silicified host rocks were similarly purified through manual separation under a standard binocular light microscope and subsequently sent to the Cornell Isotope Laboratory (COIL), Cornell University, USA, for carbon and oxygen isotope analyses Results and Discussion Geological constraints The Qamishlu lead deposit is a carbonate-hosted Pb–Zn deposit situated within the Isfahan–Malayer lead–zinc belt, part of the Sanandaj–Sirjan metamorphic zone in Iran (Fig. 1). This study demonstrates that multiple, interacting factors controlled the localization of mineralization. Ore emplacement is influenced by lithological, stratigraphic, and structural controls, which govern fluid flow at both regional and deposit scales, facilitating fluid focusing and the development of open spaces necessary for ore deposition (Nejadhaddad et al, 2023). The deposit is classified as a vein-type system and formed epigenetically relative to the Cretaceous carbonate host rocks. Limestone, the dominant host lithology, is commonly associated with Mississippi Valley-type (MVT) base-metal sulfide deposits (Leach et al, 2010). In Qamishlu, mineralization occurs within Cretaceous carbonates overlying Jurassic to Cretaceous shale–sandstone sequences (Fig. 2). Shale and carbonate–shale units act as impermeable aquitards within the stratigraphic column, playing a critical role in channeling hydrothermal fluids (Leach et al, 2005). Structural features, including joints and fractures related to fault activity, significantly enhanced fluid flow and created open spaces for ore deposition. Most mineralization is concentrated within NE–SW-trending fault veins and associated fracture networks, indicating that faulting and brecciation of Upper Cretaceous carbonates were key in generating structural conduits for hydrothermal fluids. The mineralogy of the Qamishlu deposit is relatively simple. Primary ore minerals, in order of abundance, include galena, pyrite, sphalerite, tetrahedrite, and chalcopyrite. The dominant gangue phases are calcite, barite, dolomite, and quartz. Secondary supergene minerals comprise cerussite, iron oxides (mainly limonite), smithsonite, covellite, and malachite Galena geochemistry In the Qamishlu deposit, galena is more abundant than sphalerite, similar to Southeast Missouri lead deposits (Sverjensky, 1986). The deposit is classified as Pb-rich, with a Zn/(Zn+Pb) ratio below 0.1. In addition to Pb and S, silver represents the most economically significant by-product in galena due to its relative abundance and high market value (Zeng et al, 2000). Minor trace elements, including antimony, bismuth, arsenic, zinc, cadmium, selenium, and copper, are also present within galena. The average Ag content in galena samples from Qamishlu is approximately 660 ppm. A strong correlation is observed between Ag and Sb (r = 0.84), while moderate correlations exist with As (r = 0.66) and Cu (r = 0.6) (Table 2). Silver occurs in galena both as a solid solution and as inclusions of sulfosalt minerals such as jordanite and tetrahedrite (Gregory et al, 2014; Lan et al, 2023). Stable Isotopes (O, C) The δ¹⁸O values in altered rocks reflect multiple factors, including the initial δ¹⁸O of the host rock, the isotopic composition of the fluid, the temperature of fluid–rock interaction, and the degree of equilibrium achieved during alteration (Sánchez-España et al, 2003; Bortnikov, 2006; Nejadhadad et al, 2023). In Qamishlu, δ¹⁸O values in altered carbonates (silicified and dolomitized limestones) are lower than in distal, unaltered carbonate rocks. Unmineralized host rocks display δ¹⁸O values averaging ~+22‰, whereas altered and mineralized rocks show values around +20‰. Secondary alteration minerals—calcite, silica, and dolomite—exhibit δ¹⁸O values of approximately +16‰, +18‰, and +18‰, respectively. This trend indicates a ~6‰ decrease in δ¹⁸O during mineralization, reflecting extensive fluid–host rock interaction. The lowest δ¹⁸O values occur in late-stage calcite, consistent with isotopic exchange between hydrothermal fluids and carbonate host rocks. Such depletion likely reflects high temperatures and prolonged interaction, leading to secondary isotopic equilibrium in alteration minerals formed during mineralization (Schindler et al, 2016; Nejadhadad et al, 2023). Isotopic signatures of carbonate phases, spatial patterns of alteration intensity provide further evidence for focused hydrothermal fluid flow along structurally prepared pathways.The progressive transition from fresh limestone in distal zones to weakly altered, silicified, and finally intensely dolomitized rocks toward the fault-controlled ore zones suggests a thermal and chemical gradient decreasing outward from the fluid conduits. The δ¹³C (PDB)2 values of fresh and weakly altered host rocks average +1‰, typical of Cretaceous marine carbonates (Gilg et al, 2008; Drake et al, 2009). These values progressively decrease in altered samples, fracture-filling dolomites, and silicified rocks, reaching –2‰, with late-stage calcite recording δ¹³C values as low as –3‰. The depletion in heavy carbon isotopes is likely due to biological activity or the presence of organic matter in the mineralizing fluids. Thermal oxidation of organic matter and hydrocarbons during epigenetic carbonate precipitation can produce isotopically lighter carbonate minerals relative to the original host rock (Gilg et al, 2003; Evans and Battles, 2011; Drake et al, 2009). Conclusion In the Qamishlu deposit, barite and galena precipitated together, often in alternating sequences. Geological and textural evidence indicates that ore deposition occurred after lithification of the primary carbonate host rocks and following tectonic deformation, suggesting a post-tectonic mineralization event. This behavior is comparable to other epigenetic sedimentary Pb–Zn deposits, such as Mississippi Valley-Type (MVT) systems. The solubility and precipitation conditions of barite and galena differ significantly. Lead-rich, oxidized fluids under sulfur-deficient reducing conditions can transport substantial amounts of sulfur as dissolved lead–chloride complexes. When sulfur concentration increases, lead is reduced to lead sulfide (galena) and precipitates rapidly (Hanor, 2000). Alteration in the Qamishlu deposit is characterized by dolomitization of the host rock, silicification, and precipitation of late-stage secondary calcite. Stable isotope analyses (δ¹⁸O and δ¹³C) of carbonate samples indicate isotopic exchange between hydrothermal fluids—depleted in δ¹⁸O but enriched in organic carbon—and the δ¹⁸O-rich carbonate host rocks. The strong spatial association of mineralization with NE–SW-trending faults, along with isotopic variations observed in altered zones, suggests that fault planes served as primary fluid conduits. The availability of open space, combined with fluid–rock interactions between ore-bearing fluids and carbonate host rocks, modified the physicochemical conditions of the metal-bearing fluids, ultimately leading to the deposition of epigenetic mineralization.   https://esrj.sbu.ac.ir/article_105906.html IntroductionManganese deposits occur in various tectonic settings from mid-ocean ridges to plagic environments and continental margins. Depending on the difference in the source of manganese supply, these deposits are divided into hydrothermal, hydrogenous and diagenetic (Oksuz, 2011; Polgari et al, 2012; Schmidt et al, 2014). The change in origin causes distinct geochemical differences in these deposits. The studied area in the southwest of Kerman province (Fig. 1) hosts manganese deposits. This area is a part of the South Sanandaj-Sirjan zone, where different rock sequences formed in association with the subduction of the Neotethys oceanic crust beneath the central Iranian micro-plate occur. The aim of this study is to investigate the mineralogical and geochemical properties of the Zaghadareh manganese deposit in order to identify the origin and genesis of this deposit, which has not been studied by researchers so far. Also, the formation of this deposit is compared with some other deposits from the Sanandaj-Sirjan zone to gain a better understanding of the conditions governing the mineralization environment of the Neotethys Ocean during the Mesozoic Era. The study area belongs to the southern part of the Sanandaj-Sirjan zone (Fig. 1a). As the other parts of the zone, this area is composed of metamorphic, igneous and sedimentary rocks. The main lithology of the area includes a color mélange with Cretaceous age (Fig. 1b). These rocks cover the southern and southeastern parts of the region and include some parts of the ophiolitic sequence, volcanic rocks, radiolarian cherts and pelagic limestones. In the northern parts, basaltic and andesitic rocks of Mesozoic-Cenozoic age occur. The Zaghdarreh deposit occurs at the boundary between the ophiolitic color mélange and pelagic limestones (Fig. 1b). In this area, radiolarian cherts host the Mn-ore mineralization (Fig. 2). The cherts occur as interlayers with pelagic limestones in the region (Fig. 2a, b and c). The thickness of the Mn-ore layers in different parts of the deposit varies from 1 cm to more than 1 m. The occurrence of iron oxides and hydroxides (hematite and limonite) is visible in some parts of the deposit (Fig. 2d), which is evidence of the presence of Fe along with Mn in this deposit. Faulting has caused crushing and uplift in limestones and radiolarite cherts. Based on field surveys, these faults have a NW-SE trend and a 60º dip to the SW.Materials and MethodsThe samples were analyzed for major elements in the Kansaran Binaloud laboratory, Tehran using a Philips PW 1480 XRF instrument. The trace emelent contents were measured through ICP-MS methos in ACME labratoy, Shivana, Indian. The XRD analyses were carried out in the Zarazma laboratory, Tehran.Results and DiscussionMineralographyThe samples shows a uniform paragenesis in the polished and thin-polished. Pyrolusite is the main manganese-bearing mineral, which is accompanied by braunite.Pyrolusite is generally occur as fine-grained and associated with fine-grained quartz (Fig. 4a). Psilomelane and todorokite were identified in some samples, occurring as thin veins or filling the empty spaces between the other grains. Quartz, hematite and calcite are other minerals in these samples.The main textures in the studied samples include colloform, micronodular, and synchronous fine-grained and stockwork veins (Fig. 4). The colloform texture (Fig. 4b), which is abundant in the samples, indicates formation in a deep marine environment where manganese oxides and hydroxides precipitated slowly. The micronodular texture (Fig. 4c, d, and e) consists of spherical or elliptical aggregates of manganese minerals in a matrix of fine-grained silica and is indicative of slow depositional environments. The cores of the nodules are made of braunite, which is covered by a coating of pyrolusite (Fig. 4d, e). The synchronous fine-grained texture (Fig. 4f) indicates the coeval deposition of silica and manganese minerals, which is often associated with early diagenetic conditions. The presence of thin, interconnected stockwork veins filled with manganese and quartz minerals (Fig. 4g) indicates the intrusion of hydrothermal fluids into the host rock. Another characteristic of these samples is the alternation of manganese-bearing and silica layers, which demonstrate variations in depositional conditions and the influence of hydrothermal fluids on the mineralization process (Fig. 4h and i).MineralogyThe results of X-ray diffraction analysis of two samples from the Zaghdarreh deposit are presented in Fig. 4. The analyses show that quartz, calcite, braunite and hematite are the main minerals and fluorapatite, dolomite, clay minerals and amphibole are the minor ones. Pyrolusite is the main mineral in one sample and is considered as a minor mineral in the other sample, indicating that the conditions of formation of the deposit were not uniform in all parts of it.GeochemistryThe results of the whole rock geochemical analyses of the Zaghdarreh deposit samples are represented in Table 1. SiO2 is the most abundant oxide and its amount range from 46 to 63 wt% in the samples. MnO range from 11 to 19 wt%. The other important oxides include CaO (8-14 wt%), FeOt (8 to 11 wt%) and Al2O3 (0.8 to 1.4 wt%). The correlation diagrams between Mn and Fe, Co, Cu, Ni, Zn and V are presented in Fig. 6. The results show that manganese has the highest correlation with Fe (R = 0.62) and the lowest correlation with Ni (R = -0.63). The SiO2 vs. Al2O3 variation diagram (Toth, 1980) (Fig. 6a) shows that the Zaghdarreh deposit formed from hydrothermal fluids. Also correlations between Al2O3, TiO2 and MgO can be attributed to detrital materials from the adjacent island arcs (Zarrasvandi et al, 2023) and submarine volcanic activities.GenesisManganese oxides are formed by a variety of processes and in a variety of geological environments. In general, manganese deposits are divided into three main categories: sedimentary (sedimentary-diagenetic or stratiform), hydrothermal, hydrogenic, and supergene (Roy, 1992; Kuleshov, 2011). Maynard (2010) also has divided manganese deposits into two types: primary (resulting from hydrothermal, diagenetic, and hydrogenic activities) and secondary (resulting from supergene processes). Hydrothermal deposits are formed by the deposition of metal-rich hydrothermal fluids near oceanic ridges, seamounts, arc islands, and around submarine hot springs, and hydrogenic (deposition from seawater) and primary diagenetic (deposition from pore water) processes produce Fe-Mn sedimentary nodules in the seas (Roy, 1992). Petrographic studies can be useful in determining the origin and genesis of manganese deposits. Deposits close to the source often contain hematite and quartz formed by hydrothermal fluids exhumed from the oceanic crust. Deposits far from the source are associated with jasperite and occur at a distance from mid-ocean ridges (Oksuz, 2011; Brusntinyn and Zhukov, 2012). Hydrothermal deposits usually have coarse-grained crystalline textures with hematite and quartz veins, but hydrogenous deposits have thin-layered textures and ferromanganese crusts (Oksuz, 2011). Also, the presence of stockwork veins and manganese-rich nodules indicates the influence of hydrothermal processes (Maynard, 2010; Oksuz, 2011). The textural and mineralogical characteristics of the studied samples are consistent with hydrothermal deposits. The Fe2O3-SiO2-MnO ternary diagram (Karakus et al, 2010) also confirms this (Fig. 6b). In addition, the Mn/Fe ratio is also an important factor in investigating the origin of Mn deposits. The Mn/Fe ratio is less than 1 in lacustrine deposits, 1 in hydrogenous deposits, and higher than 10 in hydrothermal deposits (Nicholson et al, 1997). This ratio range 1.17 to 1.9 (Table 1) for the studied samples which is between those of hydrothermal and hydrogenous deposits. Also, TiO2 contents are higher than 1 for hydrogeous Fe-Mn deposits and lower than 1 for the hydrothermal ones (Ahmadi et al, 2019). The TiO2 values ​​of the Zaghdarreh deposit samples (0.03 to 0.06 wt%, Table 1) are consistent with a hydrothermal origin. The values ​​of some minor elements such as Ni, Cu, V, Co, and Zn are also useful in determining the origin of Mn deposits. Hydrothermal manganese deposits have relatively high concentrations of Co, Ni, and Cu compared to hydrothermal deposits located along mid-ocean ridges (Toth, 1980; Usui and Someya, 1997). Co is closely associated with Mn oxides and its abundance decreases on average from hydrogeous to diagenetic and hydrothermal deposits (Sabatino et al, 2011). It should be noted that manganese and cobalt are oxidized together in the same catalytic pathway, and as a result, microbial processes can cause cobalt enrichment in manganese deposits (Moffett and Ho, 1996; Polgári et al, 2012). The Co/Zn ratio is important for separating hydrothermal and hydrogeous deposits. The average ratios are 0.15 and 2.5 in hydrothermal and hydrogeous deposits, respectively (Toth, 1983). The Co/Zn ratio for the Zaghdarreh deposit samples range from 0.02 to 0.5, which is consistent with hydrothermal deposits.Trace element diagrams presented for determining the origin of manganese deposits are shown in Fig. 7. The ternary diagram Fe-Mn-(Ni+Co+Cu)*10 (Fig. 7a) indicates a hydrothermal origin for studied the samples. In the Zn-Co-Ni diagram, the samples are mainly located in the hydrothermal deposits, however some samples lie near the hydrogenous deposits (Fig. 7b).Environment of occurrenceManganese deposits derived from hydrothermal fluids can form in or near mid-ocean ridges and to a lesser extent in arc islands (Roy, 1992). Sedimentary deposits are formed by the slow deposition of Fe-Mn crusts in deep marine waters or by bacterial processes (Toth, 1980; Usui and Someya, 1997; Jach and Dudek, 2005). Deposits close to the mid-ocean ridge have higher iron contents than others and, in turn, lower TiO2 contents (Murray, 1994; Nicholson et al, 1997; Ahmadi et al, 2019). In the plot of Al2O3/Al2O3+Fe2O3 vs. Fe2O3/TiO2 (Fig. 8), samples from the Zaghdarreh deposit are located near the mid-ocean ridge, where MnO was deposited by the ridge associated hydrothermal fluids. The high Fe contents and presence of hematite in the samples studied (Fig. 4) are consistent with this.Comparison with the other Mn deposits from The Zagros and Sanandaj-sirja zones hosts many Mn-deposits, mainly formed as a result of hydrothermal processes (Zarasvandi et al, 2016b). Comparing the geochemistry of samples from the Zaghdarreh Mn deposit with other deposits can confirm the results and interpretations related to its genesis. In most of the graphs presented in Figs. 7 and 8, geochemistry of the Zaghdarreh deposit are in agreement with the other ones, although there are also some differences. The Fig. 8a shows that, unlike other deposits, diagenetic and bacterial processes did not affect the Zaghdarreh deposit. Also, this deposit, like the Nasirabad deposit (Neyriz area), also exhibits some geochemical characteristics of water-borne deposits, indicating their genesis. Also, the Nasirabad deposit was formed in a pelagic environment and at a distance from the oceanic ridge.ConclusionThe Zaghdarreh Mn deposit occurs in the southern part of the Sanandaj-Sirjan zone and in the color mélange radiolarite cherts of the Neotethys ophiolites. Petrographic studies and X-ray diffraction analyses show that the deposit mineral include pyrolusite, braunite, todorokite, hematite, quartz, and calcite. The main textures are colloform, micronodular, disseminate, and stockwork veins formed by hydrothermal processes. The geochemical properties of samples, such as high of Si, Fe, Zn and low of Ni, Co, and Cu contents is consistent with hydrothermal fluid originated Mn-deposits. Also, the ratios between Al2O3, Fe2O3, and TiO2 indicates that they were formed near a mid-ocean ridge by associated hydrothermal fluids. Submarine volcanic activities and detrital materials from the adjacent island arcs changed the geochemistry of the deposit and elevated Al, Ti and Mg contents. The results obtained for the Zaghdarreh deposit are consistent with other hydrothermal Mn deposits of the Zagros orogeny. Also, differences in position of the adjacent Nasirabad deposit (Neyriz region) and Zaghdarreh deposit indicates that hydrothermal fluids caused both the distal and proximal Mn mineralization in this part of the Neo-Tethys Ocean.  https://esrj.sbu.ac.ir/article_106604.html Introduction The South Caucasus, which includes Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia, is a region of significant geopolitical and geo-economics importance. Strategically positioned at the crossroads of Europe, Asia, and the Middle East, it serves as a pivotal area of influence for Iran. The historical, cultural, and geographical ties between Iran and the South Caucasus further emphasize its critical nature in Tehran’s foreign policy considerations. However, the region's complex ethnic and political landscape brings about significant challenges related to regional stability. For decades, Iran has encountered difficulties in asserting a proactive stance in the South Caucasus, often resorting to reactive or passive policies. This challenge arises from several geopolitical factors that hinder Iran's ability to effectively implement its foreign policy in the area. Key issues include intra-regional conflicts, such as the protracted Nagorno-Karabakh dispute, the dominant roles played by regional powers like Turkey and Russia, and the increasing involvement of external actors, including the United States, the European Union, and China. Moreover, socio-economic issues, territorial disputes, and geographical barriers exacerbate Iran's struggles in the region. Such dynamics foster a competitive environment wherein Iran's strategic interests—such as energy security, border stability, and regional influence—are frequently compromised by more assertive players. This study aims to identify and assess the geopolitical challenges that shape Iran's foreign policy in the South Caucasus, focusing on the roles of regional and extra-regional powers, the implications of socio-economic and security transformations, and the shortcomings of Iran’s current policy approach. Materials and Methods To explore the topic effectively, the study adopted a research method centered around collecting and statistically analyzing the opinions of experts regarding the challenges facing Iran. Given the complexities involved, the Delphi method was deemed most suitable for this research. This subjective forecasting technique is particularly effective for gathering useful data in uncertain contexts, such as the geopolitical landscape of the South Caucasus, and is particularly validated for predicting challenges—one of the core objectives of this study. The Delphi process is an iterative and systematic procedure wherein questions are presented to a panel of experts in successive rounds to achieve a reliable group consensus. In contrast to individual-based forecasting methods like surveys, Delphi focuses on group dynamics, allowing for a richer interaction that leads to more powerful conclusions than the sum of individual perspectives. The selected expert panel consisted of specialists in geopolitics and South Caucasus affairs, who, due to their experience and positions, were expected to provide valuable insights relevant to this study. Participants were contacted, and the response rate was highly satisfactory. Although other groups could have been involved, a selection of 15 experts was made to kick start this exploratory study; this initial pool can be expanded in future research phases depending on funding and available resources. dropout rate during the process was a mere 7%, which is substantially lower than typical rates in published studies (usually ranging from 20% to 30%), minimizing the risk of distortion in final results. Results and Discussion The findings illustrate that Iran's foreign policy in the South Caucasus is significantly constrained by three primary categories of geopolitical challenges: intra-regional dynamics, the influence of regional powers, and interventions from external actors. Intra-regional factors include persistent ethnic and territorial conflicts, particularly the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, which has historically destabilized the region and complicated Iran's diplomatic relations. These conflicts contribute to a fragmented geopolitical landscape, where Iran's alignment with one state risks complicating ties with others, thereby limiting its capacity to implement a well-balanced regional strategy. Moreover, the influence of regional powers—particularly Turkey and Russia—constitutes a significant obstacle to Iran's aspirations. Turkey has solidified its position through cultural ties with Azerbaijan, making extensive economic investments and engaging in military cooperation, particularly evident during the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. On the other hand, Russia, utilizing its historical dominance and maintaining military bases in the region, retains a formidable grip over security and economic dynamics. Delphi analysis revealed that 78% of experts highlighted the influence of regional powers as the foremost challenge, followed by intra-regional conflicts (65%) and extra-regional interventions (52%). External actors, including the United States, the European Union, and China, have expanded their presence in the South Caucasus through energy projects, security partnerships, and infrastructure investments—most notably, China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Such interventions frequently marginalize Iran, which faces limitations due to international sanctions and domestic political constraints. Conclusion The results of this research indicate that the upcoming challenges in Iran's relations with the countries of the South Caucasus region have a geopolitical nature and are primarily due to the multiplicity and diversity of issues and influential actors in the region, along with the interactions and interconnections of complex geopolitical matters that play a significant and effective role in the ambiguity and passivity of the foreign policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the region. https://esrj.sbu.ac.ir/article_107029.html Introduction In 2007, then-Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe gave it a geopolitical dimension.  Japan’s economic power, China’s progressive economic reforms, the remarkable experiences of newly industrialized countries, and the economic growth of ASEAN are the most important centers of economic developments in the North and East Asian region. The structure of relations in this region is being formed based on the relations between the two great powers, the United States and China, and alongside them, players such as ASEAN, Japan, South Korea, and India have their own influences on military issues. But why is this region important to many countries, especially the United States? The importance of this region lies in the fact that, a significant part of the energy supply lines of the American and European economies passes through its sea routes. On the other hand, the Indo-Pacific region is a very important corridor and alternative for the exercise of US military power. This article attempts to explain the security strategy of important Indo-Pacific countries, especially the United States, in this region and to explain the reason for the tendency of important countries in this region towards an arms race. Materials and Methods First, we have compared US military capabilities with other major countries in the region. Second, we have examined how these core values and capabilities have shaped our understanding of the consolidation of US military power in the world, and in particular in the Indo-Pacific region. Thirdly, this research shows the relationship between economic power and military power for important countries in this region, especially the United States. The method of information and data collection is generally based on the library method. Results and Discussion The Indo-Pacific region, based on its political, economic, military and security characteristics, is the point of intersection of the policies of great powers such as the United States of America and China. In fact, the structure of competition in this region is being formed based on the relations between these two powers, and along with it, players such as ASEAN, Japan, South Korea and India have their own effects on this region. The competition for receiving and purchasing military weapons among the important countries of the Indo-Pacific region is very high. American arms companies have the highest sales in the region compared to other geopolitical regions. Among the various reasons for the purchase of weapons by the countries of the region, we can mention the economic-military growth of the aforementioned countries, especially China. Some of these countries are trying to reduce their military differences with other advanced and important economic-military countries of the region by forming military alliances such as AUKUS or by overtaking each other. Conclusion The United States now accounts for about 41.7 percent of global arms transfers. The role of American arms companies in the country’s global ranking is very important. American arms manufacturers produce almost the largest share of arms sales in the world. Increasing economic power is one of the distinctive features of the countries of the Indo-Pacific region. The Indo-Pacific region is rapidly entering an arms race. One of the points that has pushed many Asian countries to buy heavy weapons today is the rapid increase in China’s economic and military power. Countries such as Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, and Australia are among the major arms buyers in the Pacific region that are buying weapons to counter China. India has become the world's largest arms importer in recent years, accounting for 14 percent of global arms imports. According to detailed SIPRI statistics, the Indo-Pacific region spent about $2.400 billion from 2021 to 2024. The United States is not only stabilizing and consolidating its economy, but also saving money by concluding military contracts (such as AUKUS) to contain emerging countries in the field of trade and military in the Indo-Pacific region. It seems that by selling weapons to countries in the region, the United States can maintain its arms market and American arms companies and the security balance of the region, and to some extent contain China and maintain its position of power in the region. https://esrj.sbu.ac.ir/article_107030.html Introduction Manto-type (sediment-hosted) copper (Cu–Ag) deposits are of high economic and metallogenic importance due to their relatively high metal grades and significant contribution to copper production, particularly in the Central Andes (Wilson et al, 2003; Oliveros et al, 2008). These deposits are widely distributed along the circum-Pacific and Himalayan–Tibetan belts (Shen et al, 2020). In Chile, manto-type deposits are considered the second most important Cu deposits after porphyries (Wilson and Zentilli, 1999). In Iran, sediment-hosted copper deposits hosted in volcanic-sedimentary rocks, classified as manto-type deposits, are distributed across several structural provinces, including the Sanandaj–Sirjan, Urmieh–Dokhtar, Alborz, Sabzevar, Central Iran, Kopet Dagh, Tabas Block, and Lut Block (Salehi and Rasa, 2016; Maghfouri et al, 2020; Movahednia et al, 2022). The Darreh Takht Cu deposit is located in Lorestan Province within the Sanandaj–Sirjan structural-metasedimentary belt. This study aims to investigate the mineralogical, alteration, and geochemical characteristics of Cu mineralization and to elucidate the formation pattern of this deposit within the framework of manto-type Cu systems. Materials and Methods To investigate the Cu mineralization at the Darreh Takht deposit, a large-scale geological map was prepared based on satellite imagery, field surveys, and integration with the 1:100,000 geological maps of Aligudarz (Soheili et al, 1992) and Dorud (Goodarzi, 2002). Systematic sampling of host rocks and ore was conducted according to lithological variations, alteration intensity, and mineralogy. For mineralogical and textural studies, thin sections, polished sections, and thin–polished sections were prepared and examined microscopically. Mineral identification was carried out using X-ray diffraction (XRD), while the chemical composition of ore minerals was determined using electron probe microanalysis (EPMA). Geochemical analyses of least-altered host volcanic rocks were performed for major and trace elements using XRF and for rare earth elements using ICP-MS. These datasets formed the basis for interpreting mineralization characteristics and reconstructing the formation model of the deposit. Results and Discussion The Sanandaj–Sirjan zone, with a length of approximately 1,500 km and a width of 150–250 km, extends from southeastern Iran (cities of Sirjan and Esfandqeh) to the northwest (Urmia and Sanandaj) and is considered one of the most important metallogenic regions of the country (Mohajjel and Fergusson, 2014). This zone comprises metamorphosed sedimentary, volcanic–sedimentary, and intrusive igneous rocks, ranging in age from the Paleozoic to the Mesozoic, and forms part of the Sanandaj–Sirjan metamorphic shear zone within the Zagros thrust-fold belt (Sarkarinejad and Azizi, 2008). Its tectonic evolution from the Late Paleozoic to the Middle Triassic involved faulting, carbonate deposition, basaltic lava flows, and coeval sedimentation, reflecting an extensional regime associated with the separation of the Central Iran block from Gondwana and the opening of the Neo-Tethys oceanic basin. The Early Cretaceous volcanic–sedimentary sequences in the southern part of the zone host Manto-type stratabound deposits, including Keshte-Mahki, Kal-Rizeh, Northeast and East Hassanabad, Khvorjan, and Simkan (Movahednia et al, 2020). The Darreh Takht Cu deposit is situated in the northern part of the Sanandaj–Sirjan metamorphic belt, adjacent to the Zangros thrust sub-belt, and is hosted in a Middle to Late Triassic volcanic–sedimentary sequence. The main lithologies include andesitic to andesite–basaltic flows, pyroclastic units such as crystal tuff and lithic tuff, and Permian carbonate sedimentary rocks, all generally aligned with the regional structural trend and partially metamorphosed to green schist facies. Three main rock units were distinguished: volcanic units (andesite to andesite–basalt), pyroclastic units (crystal tuff, lithic tuff, and agglomerate), and sedimentary units (limestone, dolomitic limestone, and green schist). Volcanic and pyroclastic units predominantly host Cu mineralization, and all units are aligned NW–SE along the Sanandaj–Sirjan belt. This lithological sequence reflects a volcanic–sedimentary environment with low- to medium-grade metamorphism. Mineralization at Darreh Takht occurs primarily in pyroclastic units (andesite to andesite–basalt) with sedimentary and metamorphic rocks located in the upper levels. Cu mineralization is mainly vein- and stringer-type and fills fractures, faults, and voids. The copper mineralization is predominantly vein-type, stockwork, and cavity-filling, and is structurally controlled by faults, fractures, and joints. The main factors influencing the mineralization process include: 1) suitable lithology of the host rocks, 2) effective structural features such as faults, fractures, joints, and related porosity and permeability characteristics, 3) the circulation of hydrothermal fluids through chemically favorable rocks leading to copper enrichment, and 4) the presence of granitoid intrusions in the area that provided a thermal source. Alteration types include chloritic, epidotic, sericitic, silicic, carbonatitic, and Fe-oxide/hydroxide zones. Chloritic and epidotic alterations are the most widespread and correspond to early hydrothermal activity, while sericitic and silicic alterations are restricted and associated with late hydrothermal phases. Mineralogical studies (microscopy, XRD, and EPMA) reveal five main mineral groups: sulfide Cu–Fe minerals (chalcocite, covellite, bornite, pyrite, chalcopyrite, tetrahedrite), Cu-carbonates (malachite and azurite), Cu oxides and native Cu (cuprite and native copper), Fe oxides/hydroxides (goethite and limonite), and gangue minerals (quartz, calcite, and gypsum). The dominant textures are vein, stringer, disseminated, void-filling, and replacement, reflecting the synoptic progression of sulfide, carbonate, and oxide mineralization. Geochemical studies of host rocks indicate andesitic to andesite–basaltic and trachyandesitic compositions, belonging to the calc-alkaline series. The Zr/Y versus Zr (Pearce, 1979) and Th–Co (Hastie et al, 2007) diagrams classify the rocks as continental arc-related, consistent with subduction of the Neo-Tethyan oceanic lithosphere beneath the Central Iranian continental block during the Late Triassic–Early Jurassic. Spider diagrams normalized to chondrite show enrichment in light rare earth elements (LREE) relative to heavy rare earth elements (HREE) with positive Sr and Eu anomalies, indicating plagioclase fractionation, high oxidation states, and crustal contamination of arc magmas. Negative Nb anomalies coupled with Sr enrichment are characteristic of subduction zone magmas and crustal assimilation. Among base metals, Cu and Ag show a very high correlation (r = 0.97), indicating a common source and geochemical linkage, likely due to their occurrence in sulfosalts (tetrahedrite, pyrargyrite, and prostite) and covellite. Formation Conditions and Genetic Stages Based on field, petrographic, and geochemical studies, the mineralization and deposit formation can be divided into three genetic stages: 1. Early diagenesis (primary volcanic–sedimentary stage): Extensive volcanic activity formed pyroclastic units and lava flows, producing andesitic and pyroxene-andesitic host rocks. Early  diagenesis also led to thin hematite layers from the breakdown of Fe-bearing minerals (pyroxene and amphibole). Secondary diagenesis (primary sulfide mineralization): Basin-derived Cu released from Fe–Mg minerals and altered feldspars migrated and precipitated as primary sulfide minerals (pyrite, chalcopyrite, and chalcocite) in voids and as disseminated grains. The main source of Cu is the volcanic–sedimentary host rocks. Uplift and hydrothermal activity (secondary oxide–carbonate stage): Regional uplift and faulting focused sulfide and oxide–carbonate mineralization along fractures and voids in pyroclastic units. Hydrothermal fluids of meteoric–magmatic origin formed oxide and carbonate Cu minerals (malachite, azurite) and Fe oxides/hydroxides in veins and stringers. Conclusion Cu mineralization at Darreh Takht occurs along the northern margin of the Sanandaj–Sirjan belt within andesitic to andesite–basaltic volcanic–pyroclastic sequences. Host rocks are calc-alkaline and related to a continental arc setting. Mineralization is vein- and stringer-dominated, controlled by tectonic structures, and post-dates host rock formation (epigenetic and stratabound). The positive Cu–Ag correlation indicates co-enrichment through metal-bearing hydrothermal fluids. The formation model comprises a multi-stage evolution from primary volcanic activity, diagenetic sulfide precipitation, to secondary hydrothermal concentration, demonstrating that Darreh Takht is a typical manto-type Cu deposit. https://esrj.sbu.ac.ir/article_107031.html Introduction The increase in greenhouse gas concentrations in recent decades, alongside the intensification of global warming, has led to more frequent, more intense, and longer-lasting extreme atmospheric events—especially heatwaves. Rising mean air temperatures and a shift in the temperature distribution toward higher values have caused warm-season thermal thresholds to be exceeded more quickly and for longer periods. As a result, episodes of extreme heat not only occur more often but also last longer and are associated with higher peak temperatures, placing greater stress on human health and infrastructure. The Middle East is considered one of the most vulnerable regions to heat stress due to the dominance of arid and semi-arid climates, limited water resources, and the high sensitivity of natural systems. At the same time, population growth, rapid urbanization, and the expansion of the urban heat island effect can further exacerbate heatwave impacts in many cities across the region. Therefore, monitoring and projecting changes in heatwaves is essential for risk management, adaptation planning, and reducing socio-economic consequences in the Middle East. Materials and Methods In this study, the Middle East was selected as the target region and, to capture spatial heterogeneity, was subdivided into three sub-regions (northern, central, and southern) based on geographic–climatic characteristics and temperature gradients. To characterize past climate conditions and project future heatwave changes, daily maximum temperature from ERA5 for the reference period 1985–2014 was combined with 0.25° downscaled CMIP6 projections from the NEX-GDDP dataset. Simulations from three selected CMIP6 models were analyzed for the future period 2026–2055 under three emissions pathways_SSP1-2.6 (low), SSP2-4.5 (intermediate), and SSP5-8.5 (high) to span a range of plausible futures. Before index calculation, all datasets underwent preprocessing, including quality control, handling of missing values, and calendar harmonization (removal of leap days) to ensure consistency across products. Model skill for the reference period was assessed by benchmarking model outputs against ERA5 using the root-mean-square error (RMSE), mean bias, and the Pearson correlation coefficient (R), providing a basis for uncertainty assessment and confidence in future projections.Heatwave intensity was quantified following Russo et al. (2014), where a heatwave is defined as at least three consecutive days with daily maximum temperature exceeding a day-specific 90th-percentile threshold computed from the 1985–2014 baseline using a centered 31-day moving window; the annual heatwave intensity index was then derived as the maximum intensity among all events in each year. Results and Discussion The findings indicate that the performance of climate models in reproducing maximum temperature over the Middle East is significantly season-dependent. In summer, the models achieve the lowest systematic and random errors alongside the highest correlation with reanalysis data, demonstrating strong skill in representing both absolute temperatures and their variability during the hottest season. In contrast, winter exhibits the weakest performance: higher bias and overall error combined with reduced correlation point to limitations in capturing wintertime temperature variability. Spring shows an improvement relative to winter, although correlations remain only moderate, whereas autumn—characterized by very high correlation and comparatively moderate overall error—provides robust reliability for temperature-based analyses. Overall, these results confirm that model outputs are more dependable for temperature applications in summer and autumn, while winter requires greater emphasis on seasonal bias correction and targeted calibration. The annual spatial evaluation further shows that model performance is acceptable and relatively stable across much of the Middle East, with errors increasing mainly in areas of complex topography and along land–sea transition zones. This is physically plausible, as simulations in such regions are more sensitive to local processes and land–atmosphere interactions and depend more strongly on parameterization quality. Although the bias pattern is relatively coherent at the regional scale, it appears amenable to correction: a tendency toward underestimation is evident in parts of the Arabian Peninsula, while overestimation occurs in portions of the northwest. Taken together, these results suggest that the selected models are sufficiently capable for regional analyses and future-change assessments, provided that spatial and seasonal biases are explicitly considered in interpretation. For future projections, the overall signal points to a pronounced increase in summertime heat stress during the projected period relative to the reference climate. Heatwave frequency and the number of very hot days rise across most of the domain, with the strongest amplification over interior and desert regions—particularly the Arabian Peninsula, Iraq, and large parts of Iran. A key implication is that, even under optimistic emissions pathways, a substantial intensification of summer heatwaves is largely unavoidable and may have serious consequences for public health, energy demand, and water resources. Under the intermediate pathway, increases in both the frequency and spatial extent of heatwave occurrence become more persistent across many mid- and higher-latitude parts of the region, revealing clearer spatial contrasts. This indicates that regional responses to future warming are not uniform and are strongly shaped by local climate conditions and geographic setting. One of the most important findings is the emergence of nonlinear behavior in heatwave metrics under the high-emissions pathway. While a monotonic increase in heatwave frequency might be expected with stronger warming, the results show that in some areas—particularly toward the end of the projection period—frequency can decline relative to the intermediate pathway, even though overall heat stress remains above the baseline. This suggests that, under intense warming, the dominant change mechanism may shift from “more events” toward event merging and longer-lasting heatwaves. In other words, rather than producing a greater number of discrete episodes, a hotter climate may favor more persistent, multi-week heatwave conditions—reducing the count of events while increasing their duration and intensity. The spatiotemporal analyses further indicate that heatwave changes vary with time and scenario in both latitude and longitude, and do not organize into a single, uniform gradient across the study domain. Under the optimistic pathway, interannual variability and episodic spikes are evident, but a consistent, region-wide upward trend is not dominant. Under the intermediate pathway, increases become more coherent and sustained, with larger portions of the region—especially mid- and higher-latitude areas—remaining at elevated heatwave-day levels for longer periods. Under the high-emissions pathway, the pattern becomes more unstable and distinctly nonlinear: intervals of sharp increases alternate with periods of relative decline or large variability, and hotspots of thermal stress may emerge in different longitudes at different times. This behavior highlights the importance of accounting for interannual variability and regional processes in heatwave risk assessment. At the decadal scale, heatwave intensity generally increases across all scenarios, with scenario divergence becoming more evident from the middle decades onward. In some cases, the intermediate pathway exhibits a larger upward shift in the median and spread of intensity, whereas the high-emissions pathway displays nonlinear responses. Nevertheless, heatwave duration intensifies most strongly under the high-emissions pathway and can accelerate toward the end of the period. This is particularly important for risk management, as prolonged heatwaves—even if fewer in number—can impose greater cumulative stress on public health, labor productivity, electricity demand, and water-system reliability. Sub-regional analyses reveal clear contrasts among the northern, central, and southern sectors. The northern and central sectors are more sensitive in terms of intensity increases, with stronger intensification under higher-emissions pathways. The southern sector, despite being warmer in absolute terms, shows smaller relative increases in intensity—potentially reflecting proximity to already-high thermal thresholds and physical–statistical constraints on relative  growth. In terms of duration or heatwave days, all three sectors experience substantial increases, but the central sector exhibits the largest jump; under the high-emissions pathway, heatwaves may shift from multi-day events to multi-week phenomena. The convergence of scenarios early in the period and their divergence later further indicate that the influence of emissions pathways grows over time, and that mitigation and adaptation choices can meaningfully shape future risk. Overall, the Middle East is projected to face a significant rise in summertime heat stress during 2026–2055. Importantly, this increase is not limited to a higher number of events; under warmer scenarios, it may involve a transformation toward longer and more intense heatwaves. Accordingly, adaptation planning should simultaneously address the three core dimensions of heatwave risk—frequency, duration, and intensity—while explicitly considering spatial differences across sub-regions. Given the weaker model performance in winter and the heightened sensitivity of complex terrain and land–sea interface areas, seasonal bias correction and uncertainty assessment should be treated as integral components of both scientific analysis and policy-relevant applications. Conclusion This study shows that CMIP6 model performance in estimating temperature is seasonally dependent: simulations are more reliable in summer and autumn, whereas winter exhibits the largest bias and RMSE, underscoring the need for seasonal bias correction and targeted calibration—particularly for winter conditions. Spatially, errors are concentrated mainly over mountainous terrain and along land–sea transition zones, while model performance is more stable across interior regions. The results also indicate that future warming is not confined to higher daytime maxima; the widespread rise in minimum temperatures (especially at night) emerges as a key climate-change signal across the region. Heatwave metrics further reveal that thermal risk increases under all emissions scenarios, but the magnitude and spatial pattern of change are scenario- and location-dependent and can be nonlinear. Heatwave intensity increases most strongly in the northern and central sub-regions, while persistence/number of heatwave days shows an even more pronounced rise—particularly in the central sector, where events may extend to near multi-week durations. Overall, the Middle East is likely to experience a shift in the heatwave regime toward more intense and longer-lasting events; consequently, adaptation strategies should address both “intensity” and “persistence” simultaneously and explicitly incorporate sub-regional differences in planning for health, energy, water, and critical infrastructure. https://esrj.sbu.ac.ir/article_107032.html Introduction Land subsidence is one of the geological hazards that leads to the collapse or lowering of the earth's surface. The deformations on the earth's surface are mostly in the vertical direction and displacement may also be observed in the horizontal direction. Subsidence can be affected by human activities such as tunneling, mineral production, groundwater extraction and fault activity, which cause abundant morphological outcrops on the earth's surface (Sharifikia, 2012). In some cases, land subsidence is caused by the extraction of underground reserves and valuable mineral materials. One of the methods used to produce useful minerals is mineral solutions. If the mineral is solid and soluble in water, the mineral is dissolved in water by injecting water through wells containing the mineral layer, and then pumping and extracting the mineral solution through the extraction wells is carried out. In the extraction cycle, water injection operations are carried out on the one hand and the production of water-soluble materials is carried out in a controlled manner. The United States, Kazakhstan, China, and Uzbekistan use this method to extract potash ore. The Belle Plaine Potash Mine, located in Canada, is the world's first and largest solution mine (Mark et al, 2010). In the case of deep mineral brines that contain valuable elements such as iodine and bromine, the mineral solution extraction method can be used. In this case, due to the nature of the mineral, which is in the form of a mineral solution, the minerals are exploited by drilling deep wells. In order to reduce the effects of subsidence in such conditions, the wastewater from the extraction should be injected into deep layers after processing and separating the mineral. Currently, the mineral solution extraction method is used in our country and in the northwest of Golestan Province. In the northwest of Golestan Province and near the city of Aq Qala, the exploitation of iodized brines at depths of more than 1000 meters is underway, and the exploitation of iodine minerals by extracting deep brines by the private sector has begun since 2008. The purpose of this research is to investigate the numerical values ​​and zoning of land subsidence due to the extraction of iodized brines in the study area. Although subsidence has a relatively high frequency and sequence, it is often difficult to detect and measure accurately due to the very slow and shallow motion of the Earth. Also, the amount of subsidence is usually very small and occurs in an area of ​​one to several kilometers. Such a large area with very little subsidence cannot be analyzed by methods such as geophysical surveys, seismic waves, electromagnetic waves, soil resistivity, and other methods. One promising technology is high-frequency radar. Remote sensing with high-frequency radar can provide the penetration depth and resolution required for accurate detection and identification of such facilities (Klar et al, 2009). Materials and Methods In order to investigate the issue of subsidence in the north of the city of Aq Qala in the northwest of Golestan province, remote sensing tools have been used in the first stage. The study area is located 27 kilometers from the city of Aq Qala and in the northwest of Golestan province. In this area, withdrawal from surface and deep aquifers has caused subsidence on the ground surface. Further, through investigations conducted on the wells in the study area, it was determined that the wells drilled by the Ministry of Energy did not extend to the bedrock and in two cases did not even reach the water surface, but the exploration wells for iodine mines and wells drilled by the oil company did extend to the bedrock. By looking at the geological columns prepared in the exploration wells, in other words, the well logging conducted in the area, it is clear that from the south to the north of the studied area, the depth of the bedrock decreases and the water table rises. Also, from the south to the north in the direction of drilling the exploration wells, the thickness of the layers decreases significantly. Geologically, this area is located on the border between the three tectonic zones of the southern Caspian basin, the southwestern part of the Kopeh Dagh folded belt, and the northern ridge of the Eastern Alborz. The conditions of the study area are influenced by the tectonic history and stratigraphy of these three tectonic zones, and due to the alluvial covers and insignificant outcrops of formations in the study area, information from the exploration wells of the Oil Company and the iodine exploration wells was used. In this study, in addition to monitoring the subsidence phenomenon using radar interferometry, a numerical simulation method with Plaxis 3D software was used to better understand the subsidence problem and the mechanism of related deformations. Plaxis 3D is a 3D finite element program that was specifically designed to investigate and calculate the settlement of offshore foundations, but in version 1.6, with the addition of consolidation settlement, it gained the ability to investigate settlements resulting from water withdrawal and groundwater level reduction. This program receives simple inputs from the user, combines simple graphics, and automatically creates complex finite element models with advanced output and high flexibility. Results and Discussion For modeling the settlement behavior, the Mohr-Coulomb behavioral model has been used according to the geological conditions of the rock layers and the results of rock mechanics tests. The Mohr-Coulomb elasto-plastic model requires five input parameters, namely Young's modulus, Poisson's ratio for soil elasticity, internal shear angle, cohesion for soil ductility, and as the expansion angle. The Mohr-Coulomb model represents an approximate first-order equation of soil or rock behavior. It is recommended to use this model for initial analysis of soil behavior and compare it with other models. For each layer, an average stiffness estimate is constant, and given this constant stiffness, an initial estimate of deformation is obtained with relatively fast calculations. In addition to the model parameters mentioned above, initial soil conditions, such as preconsolidation, play an important role in many soil deformation problems. This method is the simplest method for calculating the consolidated settlement of soil with the most basic available data, which has acceptable accuracy. In the present study, the extent of land subsidence due to the extraction of deep brines for the production of iodine in the northeast of Aq Qala city - northern Golestan province was investigated by combining radar interferometry and numerical modeling methods. Numerical simulation was performed using Plaxis 3D software and the possible subsidence values ​​were predicted if deep brine extraction continued in the study area. Then, subsidence zoning maps were prepared for the study area using radar images and the actual subsidence values ​​were calculated. Comparing the results of the simulation with radar zoning maps was able to clearly show the conceptual relationship between subsidence and brine exploitation in a quantitative manner in the study area. Using geological data of the region and Mohr-Coulomb numerical simulation, the range of subsidence changes in the study area is between 0 and 9 centimeters. The above numbers show acceptable agreement with the settlement values ​​obtained from radar images. Using subsurface geological information, a geometric model of the structure of the formations in the region was formed, and the mechanical and behavioral characteristics of the formations were defined based on the Moore-Coulomb model, and other model requirements were also considered based on the daily pumping rates from the well and the groundwater level. In this model, the settlement of the formations due to brine withdrawal in a one-year period was calculated to be 9 cm, and in order to compare the model results with the actual settlement values, the radar interferometry technique was  used and subsidence zoning maps were prepared. The settlement value in the exploitation area was calculated to be a maximum of 0.135 m, equivalent to 13.5 cm, which is slightly different from the settlement value obtained in the numerical model. Also, in the case of the settlements observed in the study area, the changes in the settlement value are a function of the withdrawal and recharge of shallow aquifers in water years, and for this reason, in the subsidence zoning maps, we see different values ​​in terms of space and time for the settlements calculated in different water years. Conclusion Periodic subsidence monitoring in the study area shows that geological and lithological factors of the formations play a decisive role in the rate of subsidence and surface deformations, and accurate assessment of subsidence is highly sensitive to the geomechanical parameters of the formations. The calculated values ​​for subsidence based on numerical modeling and remote sensing maps are relatively close to each other, indicating that the mechanical parameters and behavioral model of the formations are close to reality. Given the continued exploitation in this area and the expansion of exploitation in other areas of the plain and the irrenewability of the deep aquifer, the trend of piezometric level decline in these areas is ongoing and will intensify with increased exploitation. https://esrj.sbu.ac.ir/article_107115.html IntroductionAlluvial fans represent prominent depositional landforms that have developed across extensive areas of Iran, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions. These geomorphological features form at the transition zone where fluvial streams descend from steep mountainous terrains to low-gradient plains, leading to a rapid decrease in sediment transport capacity and initiating deposition. The widespread development of alluvial fans dates back to the Quaternary period, and these structures have often served as suitable substrates for human activities and settlement expansion. From a process-based perspective, alluvial fans are primarily categorized into two main types: those formed by debris flows and those resulting from alluvial processes or sheet floods. The piedmont alluvial fans in arid and semi-arid regions are direct reflections of the complex interplay between tectonic, erosional, climatic, and sedimentary processes. Within the Zagros Folded Belt, and specifically in the Fars Zagros, the evolution of anticlines within the framework of active Alpine-Himalayan tectonics has created conditions for the activity of marginal alluvial fans, which act as sensitive geomorphic indicators of tectonic movements. The primary objective of this research is to conduct a comparative assessment of the morphometric indices of alluvial fans marginal to three active anticlines in the northeastern part of Lar (Chah- Nahr, Dasht-Kenar, and Sherkat anticlines) and to analyze the controlling role of tectonics in their geometry, dimensions, and evolution. To achieve this, by simultaneously examining the morphometric characteristics of the alluvial fans and their upstream drainage basins, an attempt has been made to elucidate the relationship between quantitative indices and the relative intensity of tectonic activity. Iran, as part of the Alpine-Himalayan orogenic belt, is situated within one of the most tectonically active regions globally. Among these, the Zagros Mountains hold a unique position due to their prominent uplift, shortening, and extensive seismicity, making them a focal point for tectonic studies. The anticlines of the Fars Zagros, owing to their persistent tectonic activity, provide an ideal setting for studying the evolution of marginal alluvial fans. The process of anticline growth and uplift can directly influence the morphometry, morphology, and evolutionary trajectory of these alluvial fans. Numerous national and international studies have indicated that alluvial fans are among the most sensitive geomorphic features to tectonic activity, and changes in their morphology and morphometry are a direct manifestation of active tectonic movements. Research conducted on the Zagros have revelaed that tectonic activities have effectively controlled the morphometry of alluvial fans. For example, Bahrami (2013) evaluated the effects of active tectonics on the morphometry of alluvial fans aroud Danehkhoshk anticline in the Folded Zagros.In this study, the geometric and morphometric properties of alluvial fans including area, topographic slope, width to length ratio, sweep angle as well as dip of anticline layers were calculated. Results showed that parameters such as sweep angle of alluvial fans has a positive relationship with dip anticline layers, and alluvial fans with higher values of sweep angle and width to length ratio reveals the tectonically more active segments of Danekhoshk anticline. Also, the weak relationship between the morphometric parameters of drainage basin (area and topographic slope) and parameters of alluvial fans is likely due to the complex karstic features of the drainage basins that make a complicated hydrologic system. The mentioned study has confirmed that, although climate can also affects aggradation of alluvial fans, tectonic activities effectively control the morphometric properties of alluvial fans.In the comparative analysis among alluvial fans of the three studied anticlines, the ANOVA test results showed that the mean fan area and topographic slope differed significantly between the anticlines, while the differences in sweep angle, width-to-length ratio, and FCIR between anticlines were not statistically significant. On average, the alluvial fans surrounding the Sherkat anticline exhibited larger areas and higher FCIR values, which indicate a more prominent role of tectonic activities or specific structural conditions of this anticline in creating greater fan irregularity. Comparing the alluvial fans in the central and plunge zones revealed that in the central anticlinal regions, the average area, width-to-length ratio, topographic slope, and FCIR were higher, whereas the sweep angle was greater in the plunge areas. This pattern might suggest that in the central regions, due to greater uplift and steeper slopes, the system's energy increased, and leading to steeper and more geometrically irregular alluvial fans. Conversely, in the plunge zones, with a relative decrease in topographic slope, the alluvial fans experienced more lateral expansion, resulting in an increased sweep angle. The examination of coalesced and un-coalesced alluvial fans also showed that coalesced fans, on average, had larger areas, steeper slopes, and higher FCIR values compared to un-coalesced fans. This could be attributed to spatial constraints along the anticline margins, high rates of sediment deposition, and the simultaneous lateral progradation of alluvial fans in response to tectonic uplift. Results of drainage basin parameters indicated that higher values of the Basin Shape Index (Bs) and Hypsometric Integral (Hi) were predominantly observed in the basins of the Dasht-Kenar anticline, suggesting a relatively younger topography and a greater influence of recent tectonic activities. In contrast, higher Circularity Ratio values in some basins of the Chah-Nahr anticline indicate more erosion and a tendency towards more rounded shapes. Statistical correlations demonstrated a significant positive relationship between basin area and fan area, as well as between basin topographic slope and fan topographic slope, indicating a direct dependency of alluvial fan characteristics on the morphometric conditions of the upstream basin. Numerous studies (Alavi, 1994; Heydari, 2007; Alipoor et al., 2011, Jafari et al., 2023; Delchiaro et al., 2023) have shown that the Zagros belt is one of the most tectonically active fold belts in the world, and the lateral and vertical movements of folds in this region play a significant role in the evolution and morphometry of their landforms. A quantitative analysis of 125 alluvial fans around the Chah-Naاr, Dasht-Kenar, and Sherkat anticlines indicates that the tectonic activities of the anticlines, including their vertical and lateral growth and flank slopes, have a decisive role in the morphometry of the alluvial fans and their upstream drainage basinsConclusionOverall, the findings of this research indicate that the morphometric indices of alluvial fans, particularly the modified fan conformity index (FCIR), topographic slope, and area, are effective tools for assessing the relative degree of tectonic activities in active fold zones. The observed differences among the anticlines, as well as among different structural positions, demonstrate that the lateral growth and heterogeneous uplift of anticlines play a decisive role in controlling the geometry and evolution of marginal alluvial fans. Therefore, quantitative analysis of alluvial fans can be employed as a complementary approach in neotectonic studies and the assessment of the geodynamic evolution of arid and semi-arid regions. https://esrj.sbu.ac.ir/article_107033.html Extended AbstractIntroductionLandslide is one of the most frequent natural hazards, capable of threatening human lives and negatively impacting the natural ecosystem on a larger scale (Tien Bui et al. 2012; Balamurugan et al. 2016; Dey et al., 2024). In terms of severity, landslides rank as the seventh most catastrophic event among the various geohazards occurring on the Earth's crust (Nadim et al., 2006). Landslides, as common natural geological processes in mountainous areas, present serious threats to human safety, transportation infrastructure, economic growth, and ecological environments. Currently, landslides are increasing worldwide, and countries around the globe are experiencing the threat of landslide disasters. In general, landslide susceptibility evaluation can offer a basic foundation for landslide prevention and control, enabling comprehensive management with targeted emphasis (He et al., 2025). Since the 1960s, numerous methods have been developed by researchers worldwide. These methods are generally classified into two main categories: knowledge-driven models, such as expert scoring, analytic hierarchy process (AHP), fuzzy logic, and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation; and data-driven models, which include traditional approaches like information value, frequency ratio (FR), and logistic regression, as well as machine learning techniques such as artificial neural networks (ANN), support vector machines (SVM), random forests (RF), and decision tree models (He et al., 2025, Zhao et al., 2024). The Goujebel pass in East Azerbaijan Province is prone to numerous and large-scale landslides due to its specific topographic, geological, and climatic conditions. The frequent occurrence of landslides has not only caused the destruction of natural resources but has also become a serious threat to human settlements, infrastructure, and particularly the key Tabriz–Ahar transportation corridor. Therefore, accurately identifying high-risk areas and producing reliable landslide susceptibility maps can play a crucial role in reducing human and economic losses and improving the safety of transportation routes in this region. The objective of this research is to assess and map landslide susceptibility in the area from the Goujebel Pass to Ahar City using the Support Vector Machine (SVM) model and to analyze the role of influencing factors.Material and methodsThe study area is located in northwestern Iran, within East Azerbaijan Province. Geographically, it lies between 38°21' and 38°29' north latitude and 46°50' to 47°02' east longitude. Covering an area of approximately 193 square kilometers, it encompasses sections of the mountains surrounding the Goujebel Pass and extends to the western of the city of Ahar. The primary data used in this study include 1:50,000 topographic maps, 1:100,000 geological maps, a digital elevation model (DEM) with a resolution of 12.5 meters from the ALOS-PALSAR satellite, as well as Sentinel-2 satellite imagery and Google Earth images. For spatial analyses and data processing, ArcGIS, ENVI, and SPSS Modeler software were used. The main method for landslide modeling in this study is the use of the Support Vector Machine (SVM) model. This method was developed in the 1990s and, due to its high efficacy in various algorithms, is recognized as one of the most widely used approaches (Riaz et al., 2024). This model learns the complex relationship between effective factors and landslide occurrence by being trained on a dataset consisting of historical landslide locations and contributing factor layers. The learned relationship is then extrapolated to the entire study region to create a susceptibility map (Kavzoglu et al., 2014). A landslide inventory is recognized for providing a comprehensive record of historical landslide events currently present in the study area. The landslide inventory map (LIM) can be developed using high-resolution satellite imagery, aerial photographs, previous literature documenting landslides, and extensive field surveys (Ali et al., 2022). In this method, a historical landslide distribution map of the study area was first prepared and then divided into two datasets: 70% for training and 30% for testing, while non-landslide points were also randomly selected. Subsequently, the landslide conditioning factors including variables such as elevation, slope, aspect, lithology, distance to faults and drainage networks, the Topographic Wetness Index (TWI), land use, and vegetation cover were prepared in raster format. In the next step, the values of these layers at the locations of the training points were extracted in the ArcGIS environment to construct the data matrix. The SVM model was trained using this matrix with the application of the radial basis function (RBF) kernel, and its parameters were optimized. The performance of the final model was evaluated using the testing data and metrics such as overall accuracy and the ROC curve. Finally, the model was applied to the entire study area, and the final landslide hazard zonation map was produced in five classes: very low, low, moderate, high, and very high.Result and discussion This study aimed to produce a landslide susceptibility map of the Goujebel pass using a Support Vector Machine (SVM) model. Analysis of geomorphological indices showed that more than 98% of the landslides occurred at elevations between 1,450 and 1,750 m, with 42% of them specifically concentrated in the 1,640–1,740 m elevation class. Approximately 88% of the landslides occurred on slopes of less than 30%, and the north aspect, accounting for 63%, was the most significant slope direction for landslide occurrence. The study of geological indicators showed the determining role of lithology, such that the PLQ-c unit (discontinuous conglomerate with marly interlayers) covers only 44% of the area but hosts 95% of the landslides. From a hydrological perspective, a significant overlap was observed between high values of the Topographic Wetness Index (TWI) and the spatial distribution of landslides, with 66% of the landslides occurring within 100 m of drainage networks. Regarding land cover, approximately 70% of the landslides occurred in rangeland areas; however, the NDVI did not exhibit a clear pattern. Evaluation of the Support Vector Machine (SVM) model with a radial basis function (RBF) kernel demonstrated very good performance, with an AUC value of 0.933 for the testing dataset. Based on the results of this model, lithology, with an importance coefficient of 0.268, was identified as the most influential factor, followed by elevation (0.141) and slope (0.138) as the next most significant factors controlling landslide occurrence in the study area. The final hazard zonation map showed that the majority of the area (approximately 54%) is classified as very low and low hazard, about 21.3% of the area is classified as moderate hazard, and 24.4% falls within the high hazard class. High-hazard zones are primarily located on the sensitive PLQ-c formation on moderate slopes (10–30%), which represent the main centers of large and active landslides in the area. Therefore, it can be concluded that a strong and significant relationship exists between the spatial distribution of the PLQ-c formation and the occurrence of major landslides in the region. Water infiltration into conglomerate layers with marl and silt interbeds leads to an increase in pore water pressure, a reduction in internal friction, and ultimately weakens the cohesion of the layers. Under such conditions, the slope gradient plays a significant role as a facilitating factor. For example, some of the large and prominent landslides in the study area, including the one located east of Pireh-Yousefian village, have occurred precisely in areas where the PLQ-c Formation has a significant outcrop and where favorable hydrological conditions have prevailed. Notably, landslides within this formation are not only more frequent but also larger in area and volume. In general, zones with high and very high landslide susceptibility can be identified as the primary centers of instability within the study area. The accurate identification of these hazard zones can serve as a basis for restricting construction development, monitoring slopes, and implementing preventive measures to reduce future landslide damage.ConclusionThe present study employed the SVM model with an RBF kernel to perform landslide hazard zonation in the Goujebel area, demonstrating high performance (training AUC = 0.943 and testing AUC = 0.933). Lithology, with a coefficient of 0.268, was the most important factor, and the PLQ-c formation accounted for over 95% of the landslides. Next, elevation and slope were influential factors, with coefficients of 0.141 and 0.138, respectively. Landslides mainly occurred at mid-elevations (1450–1750 m) and on moderate slopes (10–30%). Land cover and land use factors played a lesser role. The landslide hazard zonation of the Goujebel area indicates that structural and lithological controls have a dominant influence on slope instability. The zonation map of the area showed five hazard classes, with approximately 54% of the area classified as low and very low hazard, and 24% as high hazard. High hazard areas are primarily located on the PLQ-c formation and on moderate slopes, requiring continuous monitoring and management. The results demonstrated that combining SVM with spatial data is an effective tool for producing landslide susceptibility maps and supporting disaster management, environmental planning, and infrastructure design. Special attention to susceptible formations (particularly the PLQ-c formation), control of hydrological factors, and monitoring of areas with moderate slopes are among the key strategies for reducing landslide risk in this region. The findings of this research can serve as a basis for environmental planning, disaster risk management, infrastructure design, and land-use planning in the study area. Although the study demonstrates strong performance, future research is encouraged to explore alternative models to further enhance landslide susceptibility predictions.Keywords: Slope Hazard, Landslide, Support Vector Machine (SVM) model, Goujebel Pass https://esrj.sbu.ac.ir/article_107071.html Geopolitical analysis of chaos spaces on Iran's national security (case study of South Caucasus)AbstractDeep transformations in the geopolitics of the South Caucasus after the collapse of the Soviet Union have caused extensive changes in the political structure of the region. In the meantime, Iran has expanded its political-economic cooperation with these countries due to the close historical, cultural and geographical ties. Due to its geopolitical importance and its transit route, energy resources, and the emergence of new security threats, this region has received the strategic attention of regional countries, including Iran, and trans-regional powers. Today, mastering this area has become an important measure of power. On the other hand, the atmosphere of chaos and complexity has become the basis for direct and indirect intervention of powers and has become a factor for competition between actors. In terms of security, the South Caucasus is a barrier between Iran and regional and global powers. Therefore, any threat and chaos causes a threat to Iran's national security. Due to its proximity to the South Caucasus and preventing the spread of crises and conflicts in this region to its borders, Iran pursues a region-oriented foreign policy, based on partnership strategies and without the involvement of major powers. Our goal in this research is to investigate the developments in the South Caucasus on Iran's national security and foreign policy. It seems that considering the role of regional and extra-regional powers in the developments of the South Caucasus, i.e. competition, conflict of interests, different goals, cooperation and alliance are different axes that affect Iran's national security and cause the formation of Iran's foreign policy frameworks in have become South Caucasus. The findings of the research indicate that the most important reason for the crisis in the South Caucasus is the intervention and role-playing of regional and extra-regional powers by means of financial aid, information and support of weapons of their own spectrum. This factor has caused competition, different positions, and ultimately the formation of an atmosphere of chaos in the South Caucasus.Key words: SECURITY, IRAN, GEOPOLITIC, SPACE CHAOS, SOUTH CAUCASUS.Geopolitical analysis of chaos spaces on Iran's national security (case study of South Caucasus)AbstractDeep transformations in the geopolitics of the South Caucasus after the collapse of the Soviet Union have caused extensive changes in the political structure of the region. In the meantime, Iran has expanded its political-economic cooperation with these countries due to the close historical, cultural and geographical ties. Due to its geopolitical importance and its transit route, energy resources, and the emergence of new security threats, this region has received the strategic attention of regional countries, including Iran, and trans-regional powers. Today, mastering this area has become an important measure of power. On the other hand, the atmosphere of chaos and complexity has become the basis for direct and indirect intervention of powers and has become a factor for competition between actors. In terms of security, the South Caucasus is a barrier between Iran and regional and global powers. Therefore, any threat and chaos causes a threat to Iran's national security. Due to its proximity to the South Caucasus and preventing the spread of crises and conflicts in this region to its borders, Iran pursues a region-oriented foreign policy, based on partnership strategies and without the involvement of major powers. Our goal in this research is to investigate the developments in the South Caucasus on Iran's national security and foreign policy. It seems that considering the role of regional and extra-regional powers in the developments of the South Caucasus, i.e. competition, conflict of interests, different goals, cooperation and alliance are different axes that affect Iran's national security and cause the formation of Iran's foreign policy frameworks in have become South Caucasus. The findings of the research indicate that the most important reason for the crisis in the South Caucasus is the intervention and role-playing of regional and extra-regional powers by means of financial aid, information and support of weapons of their own spectrum. This factor has caused competition, different positions, and ultimately the formation of an atmosphere of chaos in the South Caucasus.Key words: SECURITY, IRAN, GEOPOLITIC, SPACE CHAOS, SOUTH CAUCASUS.alliance are different axes that affect Iran's national security and cause the formation of Iran's foreign policy frameworks in have become South Caucasus. The findings of the research indicate that the most im https://esrj.sbu.ac.ir/article_107305.html Introduction The relationship between religion and the state constitutes one of the most enduring and analytically productive problems in the comparative study of political development andfew cases illustrate its complexity as vividly as Pakistan. Since its emergence in 1947, Pakistan has occupied a singular position in the modern history of the Muslim world: it was the first andremains the only, twentieth-century state to have been founded explicitly and self-consciously upon an Islamic identity, rather than having Islam introduced retrospectively into an already-existing secular or colonial-successor polity. This foundational fact has meant that questions which, in most other postcolonial states, could be deferred, managed incrementally, or resolved through ordinary legislative bargaining have instead confronted Pakistan as constitutive dilemmas of statehood itself. What is the relationship between divine law and positive legislation? Who possesses the authority to interpret Sharia for purposes of governance? Can a modern bureaucratic state, organized around Westphalian sovereignty and parliamentary procedure, simultaneously claim to derive its legitimacy from revelation? These questions have never been settled in Pakistan; rather, they have been renegotiated, reformulated andperiodically reopened across seven decades of constitutional politics, military intervention andsocial mobilization. Understanding this unresolved relationship is essential not only for comprehending Pakistan's own political trajectory but also for engaging more broadly with theoretical debates about religion, modernity andthe state in the Muslim world. For much of the twentieth century, mainstream political science operated under the assumption, inherited from classical modernization and secularization theory, that religion would gradually recede from the public sphere as states modernized, bureaucratized andintegrated into a global system of nominally secular sovereignty. Pakistan's trajectory complicates this assumption in instructive ways. Rather than witnessing a linear retreat of religion from public life, Pakistan has experienced a cumulative deepening of religion's constitutional and legal presence, punctuated by moments of acceleration under both civilian and military governments. This pattern invites a reconsideration of secularization theory's applicability to Muslim-majority polities and, more specifically, calls for closer attention to the intellectual and institutional mechanisms through which religious doctrine is translated into the machinery of the modern state.It is at this intersection of doctrine and institution that the present study locates its central concern. Although the founding leadership of the Pakistan Movement held markedly divergent views on the appropriate boundary between religion and statecraft, the historical record demonstrates that Islam did not remain a static or merely symbolic reference point. On the contrary, it gradually consolidated its position as a primary source of state legitimacy, driving successive waves of Islamization across the legal, political andsocial domains. This process was neither monolithic nor uncontested. Competing ideological currents, most notably the Barelvi, Deobandi andJamaat-e-Islami traditions, each articulated distinct visions of what an "Islamic" state should look like, drawing on different jurisprudential lineages, different relationships to Sufi practice and popular religiosity anddifferent assessments of the legitimacy of the postcolonial state apparatus itself. Their interactions, alliances andrivalries have left an indelible mark on Pakistan's political development, producing a religio-political landscape considerably more heterogeneous than accounts centered on a single "Islamist" current would suggest.Among these currents, the intellectual legacy of Abul A'la Maududi occupies a place of particular significance, both for its internal theoretical coherence and for its unusually direct institutional afterlife. Maududi's doctrine of divine sovereignty, hakimiyyat-i ilahi, offered one of the twentieth century's most systematic attempts to reconcile the vocabulary of modern statehood, sovereignty, constitution, legislation, citizenship, with an uncompromising claim that ultimate legislative authority belongs to God alone. In Maududi's formulation, human beings andby extension the modern state, are not sovereign legislators but vicegerents (khulafa) entrusted with implementing a law whose source lies outside the political community itself. This was not merely a theological proposition; it was, from its inception, conceived as a blueprint for institutional design, one that Maududi and the Jamaat-e-Islami he founded pursued with considerable persistence through constitutional advocacy, judicial activism andalliance politics, even as the party's own electoral fortunes remained modest. It is this gap between limited electoral success and outsized ideational influence that makes Maududi's case theoretically productive: it suggests that the diffusion of political Islam into state structures need not proceed primarily through the ballot box andthat scholars of religion and politics should attend as closely to intellectual and institutional channels of influence as to electoral ones. This study therefore examines the historical evolution of religion–state relations in Pakistan, with particular emphasis on Maududi's intellectual contribution and its institutional ramifications for the Pakistani state. It proceeds from the premise that the Pakistani case cannot be adequately understood through a binary opposition between "secular" and "Islamic" governance, nor through frameworks that treat political Islam as an aberration from, rather than a variant of, modern statehood. Instead, the study situates Maududi's thought within the broader theoretical literature on political Islam and religion–state relations, treating divine sovereignty not as an anti-modern relic but as a distinctive and internally coherent normative project for organizing modern political authority. This framing follows a growing body of scholarship that has moved away from earlier tendencies to treat Islamist political theory primarily as an object of security analysis or as a symptom of social dislocation andtoward treating it as a legitimate subject of comparative political theory in its own right. Study Area and Methodology The geographical focus of this study is Pakistan and the research adopts a historical and documentary approach, drawing upon a wide range of primary and secondary sources. Data have been collected through the examination of library resources, official government documents, the Constitution of Pakistan, judicial decisions related to the implementation and interpretation of Islamic law, the writings of Abul A‘la Maududi, state records and relevant scholarly literature.The theoretical framework of the study is grounded in major approaches to religion–state relations and theories of political Islam. Within this framework, Maududi’s concept of divine sovereignty serves as the principal intellectual independent variable, while the institutional and legal transformations of the Pakistani state constitute the arena in which these ideas have been manifested and operationalized. To examine this relationship, the study employs process tracing as its primary methodological tool. This approach facilitates the identification of the mechanisms through which theoretical ideas are translated into legal and political institutions across different historical periods. Moreover, it enables the investigation of causal linkages among the production of political thought, the mobilization of social forces and institutional change.In addition, thematic analysis has been utilized to examine the content of relevant texts. Particular attention has been devoted to Maududi’s major works, especially The Islamic Law and Constitution, Political Theory of Islam andKhilafat and Monarchy, alongside the Constitution of Pakistan, the Objectives Resolution of 1949, constitutional amendments and official documents relating to Islamization policies. Key themesincluding divine sovereignty, the vicegerency of humankind (Khilafat al-Insan), the Islamic state, Sharia, political legitimacy and the Islamization of the legal orderhave been identified and systematically analyzed in relation to their reflection within Pakistan’s political and constitutional structures.The unit of analysis in this research is the Pakistani state as a politico-legal institution, whereas the units of observation consist of historical documents, legal texts, theoretical writings and political developments associated with the process of Islamization. The temporal scope of the study extends from the emergence of the idea of Pakistan during the 1930s to contemporary political developments, thereby allowing for an examination of both continuity and transformation in religion–state relations over an extended historical period.To enhance the validity and reliability of the findings, the study employs a strategy of data triangulation. Accordingly, evidence derived from primary sourcesincluding legal texts, Maududi’s writings and official state documentshas been systematically compared and cross-validated with findings from secondary sources such as scholarly books, peer-reviewed journal articles and academic research studies. This procedure contributes to the robustness of the analysis and strengthens the credibility of the study’s conclusions. Results and Discussion A historical-institutional reading of Pakistan’s political development suggests that religion–state relations cannot be reduced either to elite preferences or to pressure from religious actors. Rather, they have been shaped by the interaction of three enduring forces: the Islamic identity of the state, the imperatives of modern statehood and the discourse of political Islam. The coexistence of these competing logics has produced a hybrid political order in which neither secular statehood nor Islamic governance has achieved complete predominance.The findings indicate that Abul A‘la Maududi’s influence was exercised primarily through ideational and institutional diffusion rather than direct political control. Core concepts of his political thoughtincluding divine sovereignty, the subordination of legislation to Sharia and the conception of Islam as a comprehensive socio-political ordergradually migrated from intellectual debate into Pakistan’s constitutional and legal framework. This process unfolded incrementally between the 1940s and the 1980s, with the Objectives Resolution of 1949 serving as a critical moment in the constitutionalization of Islamic legitimacy.The study further demonstrates that Islamization was driven less by societal consensus than by strategic alliances between state authorities and religious actors. This dynamic became particularly pronounced under General Zia-ul-Haq, when Islamic symbolism and institutions were mobilized to reinforce political legitimacy. In this respect, the military coup of 1977 constituted a critical juncture that fundamentally reshaped the trajectory of religion–state relations in Pakistan.Islamization also extended beyond constitutional reform and legal restructuring. Through institutions such as the Federal Shariat Court, the Council of Islamic Ideology, the Zakat and Ushr system and the expansion of religious seminaries, the state sought to embed Islamic principles within the machinery of governance. Yet the outcomes of this project remained uneven. While several Islamic institutions became enduring components of Pakistan’s legal order, broader ambitions concerning social and economic transformation were only partially realized.Perhaps the most significant finding concerns the relationship between political Islam and modern statehood. Contrary to assumptions that regard the two as inherently incompatible, Pakistan illustrates a pattern of institutional accommodation. Its political system combines democratic procedures, modern legal structures, constitutional norms and religious sources of legitimacy, producing a form of governance that is neither conventionally secular nor fully theocratic. The Pakistani case therefore challenges linear assumptions about secularization as the inevitable pathway of state formation in Muslim societies.At the same time, the incorporation of religion into state structures has generated contradictory consequences. Islam has functioned as a powerful source of national cohesion across a socially diverse society, yet state involvement in defining religious identity has also intensified sectarian contestation. The Ahmadiyya issue and recurring sectarian disputes demonstrate how religious differences acquire political and legal significance once incorporated into the framework of state legitimacy.Finally, the study argues that Maududi’s historical significance should not be measured by the electoral performance of Jamaat-e-Islami. His intellectual influence has consistently exceeded the political reach of the movement itself. Maududi’s enduring legacy lies in his ability to articulate a conceptual framework through which the relationship between Islam and the modern state could be reimagined. Even when Jamaat-e-Islami occupied only a marginal position within formal politics, many of his ideas continued to shape the discourse of state institutions and political elites https://esrj.sbu.ac.ir/article_107325.html 1- IntroductionThe vital issue of water, once considered merely an available natural resource, has in recent decades transformed into one of the most complex and key pillars of discourse at national and international levels. The significance of this strategic resource is such that its role in the fundamental dimensions of human societies—including ecosystem sustainability, driving economic development, ensuring food security, and maintaining social stability and cohesion—is entirely undeniable. In this context, Iran, due to its specific geographical location within the world's arid and semi-arid belt, faces an inherent vulnerability in this domain. Reputable international reports and indices, such as the Falkenmark indicator, consistently classify Iran among countries experiencing water crisis and severe stress. This classification is not merely a statistical warning but a reflection of a reality that manifests itself in the drying of wetlands, declining groundwater levels, land subsidence in plains, and the emergence of social tensions over water. This grim reality confronts the future of the country's sustainable development with serious challenges and has turned addressing this issue into an indispensable priority. However, reducing Iran's water crisis to natural limitations and lack of precipitation is a superficial and misleading perspective that fails to address the main roots of the problem. Multiple pieces of evidence and the findings of this research show that the roots of this crisis are deeply intertwined with structural weaknesses and accumulated inefficiencies in the country's water resource management system. The absence of strategic, comprehensive, and long-term planning, alongside the dominance of traditional approaches primarily focused on technical and structural solutions (like dam construction and water transfer), has not only failed to solve the problem but has, in many cases, exacerbated the crisis by ignoring its social, economic, and environmental dimensions. The continuation of this one-dimensional approach paints a concerning picture of further environmental degradation, the halt of development projects, and the intensification of social conflicts. The multifaceted nature and inherent complexity of the water crisis necessitate moving beyond this simplistic view and adopting a comprehensive, integrated, and locally-contextualized approach. Achieving sustainable water security—which means ensuring sufficient water of appropriate quality for present and future generations to maintain ecosystem health and advance economic and social activities—requires fundamental structural reforms at all levels of policymaking and management practices. Such reforms are not possible without a precise, systematic, and all-encompassing identification of all dimensions and components of the challenges. Policymaking in a vacuum or based on an incomplete understanding of the issue is doomed to fail. Therefore, the present research was designed and implemented with the central aim of "identifying, analyzing, and classifying the dimensions and components of water resource management challenges in Iran" to provide a macro-level, transparent, and integrated picture of the intertwined structure of these challenges, thereby paving the way for the formulation of effective solutions, future policies, and a transition towards good water governance.2- Materials and MethodsThis research is, by its objective, a fundamental-applied study and, by its nature, descriptive-analytical. To answer the main research question concerning the identification and classification of water management challenges, a "qualitative content analysis" method with an "inductive approach" was employed. This methodology was chosen for its ability to uncover hidden concepts, patterns, and structures within textual and qualitative data—an essential task for deeply understanding a complex phenomenon like the water crisis, whose dimensions are not easily quantifiable. While quantitative methods might measure the extent of water scarcity, only a qualitative approach can delve into the "why" behind managerial inefficiencies, institutional conflicts, and cultural barriers. The inductive approach also ensures that the final analytical framework is not based on pre-determined models or the experiences of other countries, but emerges directly from real, local data, thus providing a realistic and unbiased picture of the structure of challenges in the specific context of Iran. The research process was conducted in several consecutive and systematic steps to ensure the accuracy and validity of the findings. In the first step, an extensive and in-depth review of scientific resources and related documents—including reputable research articles, specialized reports from national and international institutions, and national high-level documents—was carried out. This stage was aimed at achieving theoretical saturation and gathering the most comprehensive data possible. At this stage, all data related to water management challenges were extracted and initially coded, leading to the identification of a total of 571 primary themes. These raw themes covered a wide range of problems from the local to the national level. In the second step, the process of refining and analyzing the data began with the goal of increasing precision and coherence. In this phase, duplicate items were eliminated, and similar concepts pointing to a single idea were merged. This rigorous analytical process, which required deep semantic examination, resulted in 412 finals, unique themes for further analysis. The third step was dedicated to organizing these themes. By analyzing the semantic relationships between the themes, they were categorized into 34 components or intermediate categories, each representing a specific and distinct aspect of the challenges (such as weak institutional structure, low water productivity, or low stakeholder participation). In the final step, at the highest level of abstraction, these components were classified under eight main, macro-level dimensions. These eight dimensions form the final framework of this research, which provides a comprehensive view of all aspects of the water crisis. This precise and inductive process provided a comprehensive, evidence-based framework for dissecting Iran's water crisis.3- Discussion and AnalysisThe findings from this in-depth analysis revealed that water resource management challenges in Iran are not a mono-causal phenomenon but rather a complex and multifaceted network of intertwined issues that can be classified into eight main dimensions. These dimensions, in order of significance and frequency of identified themes, are: 1) Governance and Management, 2) Economic and Financial, 3) Social and Cultural, 4) Natural and Environmental, 5) Political and Legal, 6) Knowledge, Research, and Human Resources, 7) Spatial Planning and Land Use, and 8) Geopolitical and Hydropolitical. The "Governance and Management" dimension, with 95 identified themes, was clearly identified as the most primary, key, and root challenge. This finding confirms that the core of the country's water crisis lies not in nature but in its management structure. The main components of this dimension include "weakness of institutional structure, coordination, and managerial coherence," which itself stems from the multiplicity of custodians, overlapping work of different agencies, conflicts of duties, and adversarial roles among relevant institutions. Another component is the "inefficiency of policymaking, planning, and legislation," which, due to the prevalence of short-term and sectoral views, leads to piecemeal decisions lacking strategic foresight. Furthermore, the "exclusive focus on technical solutions" and "weakness in crisis management and stakeholder participation" are other significant challenges in this area that have prevented the formation of an integrated and efficient management system. The "Economic and Financial" dimension, with 78 themes, is the country's second major challenge in this field. This dimension shows that the economic logic governing water management is inefficient and unsustainable. The key component in this section is the "inefficient management of consumption and low water productivity," especially in the agricultural sector. The "economic loss of water due to weak infrastructure," such as the widespread deterioration of transmission and distribution networks, wastes a significant portion of valuable water resources. Additionally, the "inefficiency of the financial resource provision and allocation structure" and the "weakness of the pricing and tariff system," which leaves no incentive for conservation due to the negligible price of water, are the other main pillars of this challenge. The "Social and Cultural" dimension, with 73 identified themes, ranks third and emphasizes the critical importance of human factors. This dimension shows that the water crisis is not just a technical or economic issue. Components such as "low participation of stakeholders and local communities," "serious weakness in public education, culture-building, and awareness," the "emergence of social conflicts and tensions" over the allocation of resources, and the "existence of inequality in access to water" are among the most important challenges in this area. The other dimensions also each play a role in exacerbating this crisis. The "Natural and Environmental" dimension includes phenomena such as the tangible impacts of climate change, the unsustainable exploitation of resources, and the widespread pollution of surface and groundwater. The "Political and Legal" dimension points to challenges such as weakness in the enforcement of existing laws and political interference in technical decision-making. The "Knowledge, Research, and Human Resources" dimension highlights the shortage of specialized manpower and the deep gap between research findings and practical implementation. The "Spatial Planning and Land Use" dimension refers to the lack of an integrated view in distributing activities and population according to water capacities. Finally, the "Geopolitical and Hydropolitical" dimension covers disputes and challenges related to transboundary waters and shared rivers.4- ConclusionA comprehensive analysis of the eight dimensions shows that the water crisis in Iran is not a linear or simple phenomenon but the product of a complex feedback system of intertwined structural inefficiencies. These dimensions do not operate in isolation; rather, they reinforce one another. Weakness in governance (dimension one) lays the groundwork for inefficient economic policies and laws (dimensions two and five), and these, in turn, fuel the unsustainable exploitation of resources, environmental degradation (dimension four), and the emergence of social inequalities and tensions (dimension three). Meanwhile, the absence of a coherent land-use planning approach (dimension seven) has caused the country's spatial development and the establishment of industries and agriculture to proceed without regard to ecological and water capacities, thus intensifying pressure on resources in an unbalanced manner. Therefore, successfully overcoming this multi-layered crisis, more than anything else, requires a "paradigm shift." This shift means a fundamental change in mindset and practice: a transition from the traditional, sectoral, structural, and reactive approach that has dominated the country's water management system for decades, to an "integrated, participatory, knowledge-based, and adaptive" governance system based on the principles of land-use planning and the actual capacities of watersheds. Integrated governance means breaking down sectoral silos and creating real coordination among institutions. Being participatory means recognizing the key role of local communities and stakeholders in the decision-making process. Being knowledge-based requires bridging the gap between science and implementation and using new technologies, and adaptiveness means the system's ability to adjust to changing conditions, especially in the era of climate change. Achieving this new paradigm requires practical steps and fundamental reforms, the most important of which include revising institutional structures and creating a single authority for water management, realizing the economic value of water by reforming the tariff system, seriously strengthening monitoring mechanisms and enforcing laws without exception, empowering local communities and water user associations for genuine participation in management, and making targeted investments in knowledge, research, and new technologies. By providing a comprehensive, evidence-based analytical framework of the challenges, this research can serve as a reliable scientific basis and roadmap for policymakers, managers, and researchers to design effective, sustainable, and comprehensive strategies for the optimal management of water resources and to secure the territorial future of Iran. https://esrj.sbu.ac.ir/article_107326.html IntroductionAnthropogenic climate change stands as one of the most formidable challenges facing contemporary civilization. While climatological research has traditionally prioritized the isolation of individual variables such as temperature or precipitation and their associated extremes (e.g., heatwaves or meteorological droughts), a growing body of scientific evidence suggests that the concurrent or sequential convergence of these hazards yields consequences far more devastating than the sum of their independent effects. Termed compound extremes, these phenomena emerge from intricate interactions between atmospheric physics and land-surface processes. Compound extremes are inherently multidimensional, arising from the interplay of several contributing variables; consequently, accurately characterizing these events necessitates an investigation into the joint and simultaneous behavior of the underlying factors. To illustrate, a compound hot-dry event is typically defined by the coincidence of distinct precipitation deficits alongside positive temperature anomalies or heatwaves. Of particular concern are compound hot-dry events, characterized by the coincidence of elevated temperatures and significant precipitation deficits, typically demarcated by the 80^thand 20^thpercentiles, respectively. These combined extremes possess a potent capacity to amplify environmental stress through positive feedback loops linking soil moisture and air temperature. Under drought-induced moisture deficits, a substantial fraction of incoming solar radiation rather than being dissipated through evapotranspiration is converted into sensible heat. This thermodynamic shift elevates surface temperatures and significantly intensifies heatwave dynamics. Recent global assessments indicate a rising trend in the frequency, intensity, and spatial extent of these compound extremes, particularly within arid and semi-arid zones. Accurately characterizing these events, however, necessitates the deployment of multivariate indices; conventional metrics focusing on singular climatic aspects fail to capture the synergistic nature of coupled hazards. Iran, with its vast climatic diversity and location within the global arid and semi-arid belt, is profoundly vulnerable to climate variability. In recent decades, severe precipitation fluctuations coupled with a prevalent warming trajectory have established ideal conditions for the genesis of compound hot-dry extremes. Such occurrences pose existential threats to the nation’s food security, water resources, public health, and biodiversity. Despite the critical implications, few inquiries in Iran have adopted a comprehensive approach using standardized compound metrics to analyze these coupled phenomena. To bridge this knowledge gap, the present study utilizes data from synoptic weather stations and the Standardized Compound Event Indicator (SCEI) to rigorously evaluate the spatiotemporal patterns of compound hot-dry events over the 1991–2020 period.Materials and MethodsIn pursuit of a rigorous spatiotemporal characterization of compound extreme events across Iran, we curated a dataset comprising daily temperature and precipitation records from 95 synoptic stations, selected for their optimal spatial representativeness. Despite Iran’s vast territory, its meteorological station lacks adequate coverage in key desert and mountainous regions. Nevertheless, the aim of this study is to analyze the data recorded by these existing stations to characterize the climatology and trends of compound hot-dry extremes over the last three decades. The study spans a 30-year climatological from 1991 to 2020. To ensure data integrity, the raw time series underwent comprehensive quality control and homogeneity testing prior to any statistical application. For the detection of compound warm-dry episodes, the 20th and 80th percentiles were established as critical thresholds; consequently, a compound event was defined by the concurrent incidence of heat and dry spells within a single calendar month. The methodological cornerstone of this study is the computation of the Standardized Compound Event Index (SCEI). This dimensionless metric is engineered to synthesize the joint anomalies of precipitation and temperature into a unified probabilistic framework. Within this scale, negative values quantify the intensity of warm-dry conditions exceeding the norm, whereas positive values denote the absence of such compound extremes. Based on standard statistical thresholds, the severity of these events was stratified into five distinct intensity classes: CE0 (abnormal), CE1 (moderate), CE2 (severe), CE3 (extreme), and CE4 (exceptional compound warm-dry events). Beyond the derivation of the index, we assessed the statistical significance of temporal trajectories over the past three decades utilizing the Modified Mann-Kendall test alongside Sen’s Slope estimator.Results and DiscussionA concurrent analysis of temperature, precipitation, and the Compound Extreme Index reveals that the spatial distribution of hot-dry extremes across Iran is strictly modulated by the region’s topographical configuration. Specifically, the Alborz and Zagros mountain ranges act as orographic barriers, effectively blocking the intrusion of moist air masses from the west and north into the central plateau. These topographical shielding fosters arid and semi-arid climates characterized by intense thermal fluctuations within the interior basins. Consequently, the escalating trajectory of compound hazards observed in central and southern regions is not merely a function of global climate shifts; rather, it emerges from the complex interplay between local physiography and synoptic-scale atmospheric patterns. Dissecting the physical mechanisms governing these trends suggests that the observed variability is the product of intricate coupling between thermodynamic and dynamic variables. Notably, the asymmetric warming pattern where minimum temperatures rise more rapidly than maximums has curtailed the frequency of nocturnal frosts and extended the growing season. This shift inevitably amplifies evaporative demand and accelerates soil moisture depletion, creating a feedback loop that intensifies aridity.Statistical inquiries into the data elucidate a significant upward trend in the frequency of compound hot-dry extremes across the majority of the country. Processing data from 95 synoptic observation stations uncovers substantial heterogeneity in the spatial distribution of these events. Modified Mann-Kendall tests indicate that 80.20% of the studied stations exhibit an increasing trend, with 26% of these shifts proving statistically significant at the 95% confidence level (p<0.05). Conversely, a mere 14.58% of stations displayed a decreasing tendency, none of which reached statistical significance at the 5% or 1% levels. These findings corroborate global studies reporting a surge in compound extreme events across mid-latitudes and arid zones. However, spatial analysis highlights a marked disparity in event distribution: regions within the Central Plateau, as well as Eastern and Southeastern Iran areas inherently predisposed to arid and desert climates have experienced the most pronounced escalation in compound hot-dry occurrences. In these locales, the strong negative covariance between temperature and precipitation (implying that heatwaves are predominantly dry) enhances the sensitivity of the SCEI (Standardized Compound Extreme Indicator) to anomalies. In contrast, while the Zagros and Alborz mountainous zones and the northern coastal strip generally follow an increasing trend, their patterns of compound extreme occurrences exhibit far greater complexity.An examination of the SCEI frequency distribution across its five classification tiers reveals a significant inverse relationship between event intensity and spatial extent. The frequency percentage of SCEI classes over the 30-year study period indicates that the Moderate (10.4%) and Abnormal (6.73%) classes collectively account for over 17% of all recorded hot-dry extremes. This implies that for nearly one-fifth of the temporal scope, Iran’s climate possessed a high predisposition for simultaneous positive thermal anomalies and negative precipitation deviations. At the other end of the spectrum, the Severe, Extreme, and Exceptional classes comprise 3.1%, 2.52%, and 1.24% of occurrences, respectively. Although the cumulative frequency of these three high-intensity tiers is less than 7%, the statistical rarity of such tail-end events must not be conflated with negligible impact; their potential for catastrophic disruption remains disproportionately high.ConclusionUtilizing the multivariate Standardized Compound Event Indicator (SCEI) on a 30-year dataset from synoptic meteorological stations, this study reveals that Iran is undergoing a climate transition towards a regime where extreme events manifest not as isolated incidents, but as combined phenomena with escalating intensity. The significant upward trend in these occurrences serves as a stark warning to policymakers and natural resource managers. By integrating the interplay between temperature and precipitation, the SCEI provides a potent tool for the early and precise detection of environmental stresses.The geographical footprint of these compound extremes is expanding, encroaching upon higher latitudes and the mountainous regions of the northwest. This development signals a fundamental shift in the climate patterns. Our findings demonstrate that compound extreme events are no longer transient, random fluctuations; they have consolidated into a structural and recurrent feature of Iran’s climate. To illustrate, severe to exceptional hot-dry compound events now account for approximately 7% of all recorded occurrences nationwide a critical alert for water resource and agricultural management.This evolving reality suggests that current crisis management strategies, which are predicated on the probability of univariate events, may lack the efficacy to counteract the intensity and persistence of compound phenomena. This vulnerability is particularly acute in regions where the SCEI has registered markedly negative values (classes CE3 and CE4), as the resilience of both ecological and human systems to these compound pressures has been severely compromised.Ultimately, our trend analysis corroborates this shift: while a mere 15% of stations exhibited a decreasing trend none of which were statistically significant a substantial 26% experienced a significant escalation in compound extreme events. Consequently, it is recommended that future research prioritize the dynamical modeling of interactions between atmospheric circulation patterns and Iran’s complex topography. A parallel focus should be on assessing the influence of climate change on the future intensity and frequency of these phenomena. Such efforts are indispensable for formulating more precise adaptation strategies tailored to the nation’s most vulnerable regions. This study furnishes policymakers and stakeholders with the essential insights needed to devise robust strategies for adapting to and mitigating the destructive consequences of compounded water and heat stress.Keywords: Compound Extreme Events; Standardized Compound Event Indicator (SCEI); Dry-Hot; Iran.  https://esrj.sbu.ac.ir/article_107327.html Extended abstractIntroductionThe Majidabad area is located approximately 20 km southwest of Nir city, Ardabil Province, northwestern of Iran. Based on the division of sedimentary-structural zones of Iran (Nabavi, 1976), this area is considered a part of the Alborz-Azarbaidjan zone. In Azarbaidjan, deposits of lead, zinc, iron, copper, and molybdenum are known to be among the most important ore minerals. The metallogenic zones of Takab, Ahar-Arasbaran, and Tarom-Hashtjin can be identified in Azarbaidjan. The Majidabad area is located in eastern part of Azarbaidjan. Among the research works carried out in the Majidabad area, one can mention the exploration operations such as geological, geophysical and geochemical studies by the Industry, Mining, and Trade Organization of Ardabil Province (IMTOAP, 2012). Based on these studies, the highest and lowest amounts of iron oxide (magnetite) in this area were determined to be about 93.29 and 27.3%, respectively, with an approximate average of 54.47%. However, no detailed and scientific study has been conducted so far regarding the characteristics of alteration and mineralization zones and the characteristics of hydrothermal fluids in this area. In this study, an attempt is made to investigate the geological, alteration, mineralization, and fluid inclusions characteristics in the Majidabad area. This research also attempts to discuss the physiochemical properties and conditions governing the ore-forming fluid using the results of fluid inclusions studies. The results of this research can play an effective role in the exploration and identification of ore-bearing zones in other similar areas in the country.Materials and methodsThis research was conducted in two stages: field and laboratory studies. In the field stage, a field visit to the area was first conducted to identify rock units, alteration and mineralization zones, and the relationship of ore-bearing veins to host rocks. Then, 75 samples were taken from rock units and alteration and mineralization zones. In the laboratory stage, 10 thin-section samples and 20 thin-polished sections were prepared and studied. Microthermometry studies of fluid media were conducted at Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, using a Linkam model THMSG600 device mounted on a ZEISS microscope. This device has the ability to change temperatures from +600 to -200°C. Calibration of the device was performed during the heating stage (with an accuracy of 0.6°C) using a cesium nitrate standard with a melting point of +414°C and during the cooling stage (with an accuracy of 0.2°C) using an n-hexane standard with a melting point of -94.3°C.Discussion and resultsBased on its geological location, the Majidabad area is located on the 1:100000 Sarab geological map (Behrouzi and Amini Azar, 1992). The oldest exposed unit in this area is related to Eocene volcanic and pyroclastic rocks, including tuff, volcanic breccias, and andesitic and rhyolitic tuffs along with basaltic lavas and basaltic andesite, which are covered by the Oligocene marl and conglomerate unit and then by Miocene andesitic eruptions (in the form of tuff and lava). All of these volcanic-pyroclastic complexes are cut by post-Miocene subvolcanic bodies, dykes, and diorite stocks. Based on field and microscopic studies conducted in the Majidabad area, types of silicic, sericitic, argillic, and propylitic alterations have developed in this area. These alterations have mostly affected Eocene rock units. According to field studies conducted in the Majidabad area, mineralization in this area has occurred mainly in the form of magnetite veins. Magnetite veins are often hosted by Eocene tuff units and their thickness usually varies from a few centimeters to several meters. These veins are mostly in the form of masses and mainly have a north-south trend. Based on field and microscopic studies conducted in the Majidabad area, mineralization in this area occurred in two stages: hypogene and supergene. During the hypogene stage, as a result of the activity of hydrothermal fluids, magnetite veins and veinlets were formed in the area, and various types of hydrothermal alterations (silicic, sericitic, argillic, and propylitic) developed around the ore-bearing veins. Ore minerals such as magnetite, pyrite, and chalcopyrite formed during this stage of mineralization within the ore-bearing veins. During the supergene stage, the reaction of descending surface fluids with primary minerals (magnetite, pyrite, and chalcopyrite) in the area has caused the formation of secondary minerals, including iron oxides and hydroxides (goethite, hematite, and jarosite) and secondary copper sulfides (bornite, chalcocite, covellite, and digenite). According to field and microscopic studies, the most important gangue mineral in this area is calcite. On the basis of content of the main phases and the classifications provided (Shepherd et al., 1985), types of mono-phase vapor (V), liquid-rich two-phase (LV) and vapor-rich two-phase (VL) fluid inclusions were identified in the investigated inclusions. The melting temperature of the first piece of ice in the fluid inclusions of the study area was obtained in the range of -26 to -28 °C. These melting temperatures of the first ice fragments indicate that the ore-forming fluid of the Majidabad area contained amounts of KCl and MgCl2 in addition to NaCl (Goldstein, 2003; Prokofiev et al., 2010). The melting temperature of the last ice pieces (Tmice) in the fluid inclusions was measured in the temperature range between -1.2 and -4.8 °C. According to the equation proposed by Bodnar (2003) and according to the melting temperature of the last ice pieces (Tmice), the salinity values of the fluid inclusions of the Majidabad area were determined to be in the range of 2.07 to 7.59 wt% NaCl eq; however, the highest frequency is related to the range of 2 to 3 wt% NaCl eq. The homogenization temperatures of fluid inclusions in the study area vary in the temperature range between 123 and 235 °C; however, the highest frequency belongs to the temperature range between 120 and 140 °C. The coexistence of mono-phase vapor, liquid-rich two-phase, and vapor-rich two-phase fluid inclusions in samples from the Majidabad area indicates the occurrence of ore-forming fluid boiling in this area (Albinson et al., 2001; Moncada et al., 2017; Simmons et al., 2005). In addition, the presence of plumose and comb textures in ore-bearing veins and veinlets may indicate the occurrence of boiling of the ore-forming fluid in the study area during mineralization (Hedenquist et al., 2000; Moncada et al., 2012). Therefore, considering the occurrence of ore-forming fluid boiling in the area, the homogenization temperatures of fluid inclusions do not require pressure correction (Simeone and Simmons, 1999); because in this case, the ore-forming fluid was most likely experiencing hydrostatic pressure at the time of trapping. Therefore, the homogenization temperature of fluid inclusions can be approximately equivalent to their entrapment temperature (Roedder and Bodnar, 1980; Simmons et al., 2005; Simeone and Simmons, 1999). Hydrostatic pressure values for the hydrothermal fluid of the Majidabad area were estimated to be less than 50 bar. These hydrostatic pressure values can be equivalent to depths of less than 500 meters below the water table. To determine the depth of mineralization in the study area, the homogenization temperature versus depth diagram (Haas, 1971) was also used. Considering the highest homogenization temperature (235 °C) and highest salinity (7.59 wt% NaCl eq) of the fluid inclusions, the approximate depth of mineralization in this area was determined to be about 300 m. To determine the evolutionary trends of the ore-forming fluid in the Majidabad area, the salinity versus homogenization diagram of fluid inclusions (Shepherd et al., 1985; Wilkinson, 2001) was used. According to this diagram, the fluid inclusions of the study area indicate two evolutionary processes of boiling and dilution by surface waters, as the most important mechanisms for the deposition of ore metals in the study area. The density of the fluid inclusions in the study area can be determined using the homogenization temperature versus salinity diagram (Wilkinson, 2001) without considering their trapping conditions. According to this diagram, the density of ore-forming fluids in the Majidabad area mainly varies between 0.88 and 0.97 g/cm3. The salinity versus homogenization temperature diagram (Pirajno, 2009) was used to determine the type of effective complexes in transporting ore metals in the study area. According to this diagram, sulfide complexes have played an important role in transporting ore metals in the Majidabad area.ConclusionThe most important rock units in the Majidabad area include Eocene to Oligocene volcanic-pyroclastic rocks, which are cut by post-Miocene diorite bodies. The most important alterations in this area are silicic, sericitic, argillic, and propylitic alterations. Mineralization in this area has often occurred in the form of magnetite veins hosted by Eocene pyroclastic units. Mineralization in this area has occurred in two stages: hypogene and supergene. In the hypogene stage, the primary minerals magnetite, pyrite, and chalcopyrite are formed. Secondary minerals such as iron oxides and hydroxides (goethite, hematite, and jarosite) and secondary copper sulfides (bornite, chalcocite, covellite, and digenite) were formed during the supergene stage. Calcite is the most important gangue mineral in this area. The salinity values of fluid inclusions in the Majidabad area vary between 2.07 and 7.59 wt% NaCl eq. The homogenization temperatures of the fluid inclusions in the study area were measured in the temperature range between 123 and 235 °C. The approximate depth of mineralization in this area was determined to be about 300 m. Boiling and dilution processes by surface waters are the most important mechanisms for the deposition of ore metals in the study area. The density of ore-forming fluids in the Majidabad area mostly varies between 0.88 and 0.97 g/cm3. Sulfide complexes have played an effective role in transporting ore metals in the Majidabad area. Considering the geological, alteration, mineralization, mineralogy, and texture characteristics, as well as the characteristics of the ore-forming fluid in the Majidabad area, mineralization in this area can be considered hydrothermal (vein). https://esrj.sbu.ac.ir/article_107328.html Abstract Extreme precipitation is among the most important climatic phenomena affecting the natural environment and human activities, and when concentrated in time and space, it can lead to severe hydrological hazards. Although this phenomenon occurs in most regions of the world, in certain areas—such as southern Iran—it is associated with greater intensity and more destructive impacts due to specific synoptic and thermodynamic conditions as well as complex topography. The penetration of tropical-origin precipitation systems, particularly Sudanese low-pressure systems and their associated troughs, in interaction with steep slopes, unfavorable soil characteristics, and weak vegetation cover, plays a decisive role in intensifying surface runoff and triggering widespread flooding. The objective of this study is to investigate the intensity and frequency characteristics of extreme precipitation across different elevation classes and to analyze their temporal variations during the last three solar cycles (1986–2019). For this purpose, daily precipitation data from 109 synoptic and climatological stations located in southern and southwestern Iran were collected. Following rigorous quality control procedures, data gaps (approximately 4%) were reconstructed. Data normality was confirmed using the Anderson–Darling test. The results indicate that from the coastal belt up to elevations of 1000 m, the intensity of extreme precipitation exhibited an increasing trend across all three solar cycles, whereas a significant decrease was observed within the 1000–1500 m elevation range. At elevations above 1500 m, extreme precipitation intensity increased again, with the maximum recorded in the 2000–2500 m elevation class. Inter-cycle comparison shows that Solar Cycle 23 experienced the highest intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events, while the monthly distribution reveals peak occurrences in January and March.Keywords: Extreme precipitation, Altitudinal distribution, Temporal variability, Tropical precipitation systems, Southern Iran, Solar cyclesExtended AbstractIntroductionExtreme precipitation events are recognized as one of the most significant manifestations of climate variability and instability, exerting profound impacts on natural systems, infrastructure, and human activities across different spatial and temporal scales. When such precipitation occurs with high temporal concentration and spatial continuity, it often results in severe hydrological hazards, including flash floods, landslides, and widespread environmental and socioeconomic damage. Although extreme precipitation is a global phenomenon observed in most climatic regions of the world, its intensity, frequency, and destructive potential vary considerably depending on regional atmospheric dynamics, thermodynamic conditions, and physiographic characteristics.Southern Iran represents one of the most vulnerable regions of the country to extreme and torrential precipitation events. This vulnerability is largely attributed to its geographical location, proximity to warm tropical moisture sources such as the Persian Gulf, the Oman Sea, and the Red Sea, and its frequent exposure to tropical synoptic systems. Among these systems, Sudanese low‑pressure systems and their associated troughs play a dominant role in generating intense rainfall over southern and southwestern Iran. The dynamic structure of these systems, when combined with steep topographic gradients, complex mountainous terrain, unfavorable soil properties, and limited vegetation cover, substantially enhances surface runoff and increases the likelihood of destructive flooding.Previous studies conducted at global and regional scales have documented an increasing trend in the intensity of extreme precipitation events in various parts of the world, including Central Europe, North America, and parts of West Asia. In Iran, most research has focused on synoptic analyses of heavy rainfall events, moisture transport pathways, and the role of large‑scale atmospheric circulation patterns, particularly the Sudanese low‑pressure system. In addition, several studies have suggested that variations in solar activity and solar cycles may influence precipitation variability and the occurrence of convective and extreme rainfall events. However, despite these efforts, a clear research gap remains in the integrated analysis of extreme precipitation intensity, its elevation‑dependent distribution, and its temporal variability in relation to consecutive solar cycles, particularly in southern Iran.Accordingly, the primary objective of this study is to analyze the intensity and frequency characteristics of extreme precipitation across different elevation classes in southern Iran and to investigate their temporal variations during the last three solar cycles (1986–2019). By adopting an elevation‑based and cycle‑oriented approach, this research aims to provide a more comprehensive understanding of the spatial–temporal behavior of extreme precipitation and its controlling mechanisms in one of Iran’s most flood‑prone regions.Materials and MethodsThis study utilizes daily precipitation data obtained from 109 synoptic and climatological stations distributed across the southern half of Iran. The stations are located within the provinces of Ilam, Lorestan, Khuzestan, Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari, Fars, Kohgiluyeh and Boyer‑Ahmad, Bushehr, Hormozgan, Kerman, and Sistan and Baluchestan. Together, these stations cover a wide range of climatic, topographic, and elevation conditions, providing a robust dataset for regional‑scale analysis.Due to inconsistencies in record length among stations, a common 33‑year study period corresponding to three complete solar cycles (cycles 22, 23, and 24), spanning from 1986 to 2019, was selected. To maximize the number of stations included in each solar cycle, only stations with complete and continuous records within each 11‑year cycle were considered in the analysis. As a result, the number of stations varied among cycles, increasing from solar cycle 22 to cycle 24.All precipitation data underwent rigorous quality control procedures. Missing values, accounting for approximately 4% of the total dataset, were identified and corrected using appropriate statistical methods. Data consistency and completeness were verified using spreadsheet‑based statistical checks. Subsequently, the normality of the precipitation data was assessed using the Anderson–Darling test in the Minitab software environment, and the results confirmed that the data were suitable for statistical analysis.For analytical purposes, the dataset was first divided according to the three solar cycles, each covering an 11‑year period. The stations were then classified into five elevation zones with 500‑meter intervals: 0–500 m, 500–1000 m, 1000–1500 m, 1500–2000 m, and 2000–2500 m. This classification enabled the examination of elevation‑dependent variations in extreme precipitation characteristics.Extreme precipitation events were identified based on maximum 24‑hour precipitation amounts exceeding 10 mm. These events were further grouped into 10‑mm intensity classes, and their frequency and intensity were calculated for each elevation zone and solar cycle. In addition, monthly distributions of extreme precipitation were analyzed to identify seasonal patterns and intra‑annual variability across the study region.Results and DiscussionThe results indicate that the elevation‑dependent behavior of extreme precipitation in southern Iran does not follow a simple linear pattern. Instead, it reflects a complex interaction between atmospheric dynamics, moisture availability, and topographic influences. From the coastal areas up to elevations of approximately 1000 m, the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events exhibit a clear increasing trend across all three solar cycles. This pattern can be attributed to the effective penetration of tropical moisture, enhanced low‑level convergence, and favorable dynamic lifting mechanisms in these lower‑elevation zones.In contrast, a noticeable and consistent decrease in extreme precipitation intensity is observed within the 1000–1500 m elevation range. This reduction may be associated with local topographic effects, partial weakening of synoptic systems, or changes in atmospheric stability that limit the efficiency of precipitation‑producing processes at these elevations.Above 1500 m, extreme precipitation intensity increases once again, reaching its maximum values within the 2000–2500 m elevation class. This finding highlights the critical role of orographic lifting, enhanced condensation, and intensified atmospheric instability over mountainous regions. The pronounced increase in extreme precipitation at higher elevations underscores the heightened flood and landslide risk in upland catchments and mountainous basins of southern Iran.A comparison among the three solar cycles reveals that solar cycle 23 experienced the highest intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events across most elevation classes. This result suggests a potential link between heightened solar activity and increased atmospheric instability or moisture transport efficiency during this period, although further investigation is required to fully elucidate the underlying mechanisms.Analysis of the monthly distribution of extreme precipitation events shows a distinct seasonal pattern. The highest frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation occur in January, followed by a marked decrease in February and a subsequent increase in March. After April, extreme precipitation events become sporadic and rare, reflecting the dominance of more stable atmospheric conditions during the warm season. This seasonal behavior is consistent with the temporal activity of Sudanese low‑pressure systems and their interaction with mid‑latitude circulation patterns during the cold season.Overall, the results demonstrate that both elevation and temporal factors, including solar cycle variability, play crucial roles in shaping the spatial and temporal distribution of extreme precipitation in southern Iran. The observed patterns align well with previous regional studies while providing new insights through their integrated elevation‑ and cycle‑based framework.ConclusionThis study demonstrates that extreme precipitation in southern Iran is strongly controlled by elevation‑dependent processes, temporal variability, and solar cycle fluctuations. The non‑linear elevation pattern—characterized by increasing intensity from coastal areas to mid‑elevations, a reduction around 1000–1500 m, and a pronounced increase above 1500 m—highlights the combined influence of synoptic dynamics and orographic effects on extreme rainfall generation.The identification of solar cycle 23 as the period with the highest intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation emphasizes the importance of considering long‑term temporal variability in climate hazard assessments. Moreover, the concentration of extreme precipitation events during the winter months, particularly in January and March, underscores the critical role of cold‑season synoptic systems in driving hydrological extremes in the region.The findings of this research provide valuable scientific insight for flood risk management, watershed planning, and climate adaptation strategies in southern Iran. By improving the understanding of where and when extreme precipitation is most likely to occur, the results can contribute to more effective early warning systems, land‑use planning, and infrastructure design aimed at reducing vulnerability to hydrological hazards. Future studies are encouraged to further explore the interactions between large‑scale climate oscillations, land‑use changes, and extreme precipitation dynamics in order to enhance regional climate resilience. https://esrj.sbu.ac.ir/article_107329.html Extended AbstarctIntroductionInduced polarization tomography (IPT) is a non-invasive geophysical method for subsurface imaging based on changes in the polarization parameter, which is used in various fields such as subsurface resource exploration and environmental studies. The main goal of induced polarization tomography data inversion is to infer subsurface physical properties from noisy data, which is often accompanied by various uncertainties. These uncertainties are divided into two main categories, including inherent data noise and incomplete knowledge of the physics of the problem. In this study, the uncertainty of polarization models resulting from induced polarization tomography data inversion using moving block bootstrap (MBB) resampling methods is considered. This method helps to analyze uncertainty in models by generating a set of models with a defined level of fit to the observed data. The moving block bootstrap is specifically designed to improve sampling accuracy in data where there is a possibility of correlation and dependence between data samples. This approach is used to assess the uncertainty of model parameters under different conditions, both in terms of synthetic data and field data. The results of this research can help improve geophysical analyses and decision-making related to predicting subsurface conditions. Numerical modeling on synthetic and field data shows that increasing the complexity of the subsurface model and decreasing the sensitivity of the model to the data leads to an increase in uncertainty in the inverted model. It was also observed that the type of regularization sentence as well as the regularization parameters are effective in quantifying uncertainty. In the present study, we are witnessing the development of a native software including diverse and comprehensive sections on forward modeling, effective resampling in the aforementioned style, and inverse modeling in the MATLAB programming environment, which has been tested with synthetic data and field data, the results and interpretations of which are presented in the form of diverse models. These data include two synthetic productions with chargeability and specific resistance specified for the reconstruction of lands prone to mineral deposits and valuable metal and sulfide minerals covered with alluvial overburden. In the following, three profiles from two different regions of northwest and southeast Iran have been selected, the first study area with a 2000-meter profile and high data volume, and the second area with two 800-meter profiles and the presence of exploratory boreholes are good evidence for measuring and testing this approach. Another innovation carried out in this research is the use of image processing and analysis methods to detect the percentage of similarity of changes based on exploratory hypotheses in real models.Materials and MethodsThis research follows a step-by-step analytical workflow including: forward modeling of induced polarization response, generation of synthetic data with controlled noise, inversion of resistivity and chargeability data, implementation of the MBB resampling algorithm, and finally statistical analysis of results.Forward Modeling: To simulate the earth's response to time-domain induced polarization, the chargeability perturbation model proposed by Seigel (1959) was used. Apparent chargeability (η_a) is calculated from:η_a= V_s/V_p = (V_p-V_σ)/V_p =(F_dc [σ(1-η)]-F_dc [σ])/(F_dc [σ(1-η)] )where σ is conductivity, η is chargeability, V_p is primary voltage, V_s is secondary voltage, and F_dc is the DC resistivity forward modeling operator. A dipole-dipole array with 20 m electrode spacing and 8 jumps was used. Gaussian noise of 5% of data amplitude was added to the generated data.Inversion: For data inversion, the non-linear approach of Oldenburg and Li (1994) was used. The objective function, consisting of the weighted sum of data misfit (Φ_d) and model stability (Φ_η), is defined as:Ψ(η,α)=min⁡(Φ_d+αΦ_η )=min⁡(‖W_d (d-f(η))‖_2^2++α‖W_m (η-η_apr)┤‖_2^2 ),Here, η is the chargeability model, α is the damping factor, W_d is the data weighting matrix (inverse of data error), W_m is the model smoothing matrix (combination of horizontal and vertical derivatives), and η_apr is the prior chargeability model. The inversion starts with an initial model η^0 obtained from the geometric mean of apparent chargeability data. The IP sensitivity matrix is updated at each iteration, and the iterative numerical method continues until convergence.Moving Block Bootstrap (MBB) Resampling: To analyze uncertainty, the MBB resampling algorithm was used. Unlike classical bootstrap that assumes data independence, this method preserves the correlation and dependence structure of the data. Inversion is then performed independently for each realization. Finally, among the inverted models, those with an appropriate fit level (χ^2≤m+√2m), where m is the number of data) are selected as equivalent models, and their mean and standard deviation are calculated. The mean represents the stable model structure, while the standard deviation represents the uncertainty map of the inverted model.Results and DiscussionResults from synthetic modeling and field data indicate that the Moving Block Bootstrap (MBB) resampling approach is an effective tool for quantifying uncertainty in the inversion of induced polarization tomography data. In both designed synthetic models, it was observed that the mean model derived from 1000 resampling runs reconstructed the main subsurface structures (including the location of anomalies, layer boundaries, and alteration zones) with reasonable accuracy compared to a single inversion model. The standard deviation maps from the uncertainty analysis systematically identified the areas with the highest model variability. In the first synthetic model, the highest uncertainty was observed at the boundary between the surface layer and the host medium, as well as at the edges of the anomaly. In the second, more complex synthetic model (which included a fault structure and three zones with different properties), uncertainty increased not only at the overburden-fault boundary but also within the environment exhibiting higher chargeability. These patterns indicate that uncertainty is mainly concentrated in areas with sharp gradients in physical parameters, as well as in parts of the model where data sensitivity to the parameters decreases. This finding is consistent with the theoretical foundations of the ill-posed inverse problem and demonstrates that the MBB method can naturally highlight areas requiring supplementary surveys or more detailed analyses. In the field data, a significant agreement was observed between high-chargeability zones in the inverted models and the mineralization intervals recorded in exploratory boreholes (N23 and N12). This depth and lateral consistency confirms the validity of the proposed method under real conditions. Particularly in Profiles 2 and 5 from the Khosf area, the coincidence of zones with chargeability exceeding 14-15 mV/V and resistivity below 20 Ωm with the sulfide mineralization logs demonstrates the high efficiency of the method in distinguishing alteration and mineralization zones from barren rocks. It was also observed that the highest uncertainty lies in the transition zones between resistive rocks and altered zones, which matches the lithological changes reported in the boreholes. Importantly, the MBB method not only helps identify mineralization zones but also reveals the boundaries of high uncertainty, which represent geologically high-risk areas.In the first field dataset (Meshgin-Shahr area), which lacked exploratory boreholes, the uncertainty analysis showed that the western part of the survey profile had the highest standard deviation. This section had previously shown different behavior in pseudo-sections, characterized by low resistivity and high chargeability. The alignment of this high uncertainty with a possible alteration zone (argillic) suggests that even in the absence of direct control data, the standard deviation map can serve as an indicator for identifying complex areas requiring supplementary investigation.On the other hand, the results showed that the type of regularization term and its coefficients have a direct impact on the estimated uncertainty. The use of the L2 norm together with horizontal and vertical smoothing matrices led to more continuous models and a relative reduction of uncertainty in homogeneous areas, but at the same time somewhat smoothed the sharp boundaries of geological structures. These observations underscore the necessity of optimizing regularization parameters according to the study objective (distinguishing continuous versus discrete structures). In summary, the results of this discussion confirm that the MBB resampling approach, beyond merely quantifying uncertainty, provides the following capabilities: identifying high-sensitivity areas requiring further investigation, indirect validation of inversion results in the absence of control data, and providing a basis for decision-making in the design of supplementary surveys. These features are of high practical value, especially in mineral exploration and environmental studies where the cost of drilling and additional surveys is very high.ConclusionIn this study, a comprehensive framework for quantifying uncertainty in induced polarization tomography data inversion using the non-parametric Moving Block Bootstrap (MBB) resampling method was presented and implemented. The custom-developed algorithm in MATLAB is capable of forward modeling, controlled noise application, 2D inversion of resistivity and chargeability, and generation of multiple resampled datasets with adjustable block length, removal percentage, and number of iterations (1000 times). Results from synthetic models showed that standard deviation maps clearly identify high-uncertainty areas, which mainly correspond to geological boundaries, anomaly edges, and zones with sharp gradients in physical parameters. For field data, significant agreement between high chargeability zones in inverted models and mineralization intervals recorded in exploratory boreholes (Khosf area) was observed, confirming the validity of the proposed method. Furthermore, in the Meshgin-Shahr area (lacking boreholes), the uncertainty map successfully identified the western part of the profile as a complex area requiring supplementary investigation. https://esrj.sbu.ac.ir/article_107330.html The Torud-Chah Shirin volcanic-magmatic belt in Semnan province is the result of Tertiary volcanic-magmatic events. Geological, geochemical and mineral surveyors in the Torud-Chah Shirin area have identified numerous base and precious metal deposits, including mines, deposits and mineral works of base metals (copper, lead and zinc) and precious metals (gold and silver), iron, manganese and non-metallic deposits such as turquoise, feldspar, barite, kaolin, zeolite, bentonite, celestite, silica, amethyst, sodium sulfate, gypsum, rock salt and evaporite salts. The Kahavan copper deposit is located 125 km south of Shahroud in Semnan province and is accessible via the Shahroud-Torud and Shahroud-Damghan-Moaleman-Torud asphalt roads. In this study, the Kahovan copper deposit is investigated in terms of geology, mineralogy, geochemistry and generative pattern. In this study, 50 samples of rocks and ores have been selected for petrography, mineralogy and mineral texture studies. 14 rock samples and 4 ore samples have been collected for geochemical studies. All samples were prepared for measuring the amounts of oxides of major elements by alkaline melting method and for measuring the amounts of major, trace and rare earth elements by four-acid mixture method and analyzed using inductively coupled plasma-optical scattering/mass spectrometry (ICP-OES/MS) devices in the ZarAzma laboratory in Tehran. 2 pure chalcocite samples were analyzed in the geochemical laboratory of Mesbah Energy Company using a high-precision isotope mass spectrometer (IRMS) to measure the sulfur isotopic ratioTectonically, the Kahavan copper area is located in the northern part of the Central Iran Plateau and in the Torud-Cah Shirin magmatic belt. In the Kahavan area, sedimentary rocks (shale, limestone, sandstone, and marl), pyroclastic rocks, volcanic rocks, and andesite and basaltic dykes are exposed. A major part of the Kahavan area is formed by pyroclastic rocks, which consist of epiclastic tuffs, crystalline tuffs, lithic tuffs, sandy tuffs, tuff sandstones, and tuff shale. Epiclastic tuffs, especially along fault trends, host copper mineralization (chalcocite, malachite, chrysocolla, and azurite). Volcanic rocks are also significantly widespread. Volcanic units, sometimes prismatic in structure, are observed on top of Eocene pyroclastic units and sometimes as interlayers within pyroclastic units. The composition of the volcanic units varies from andesite, trachyandesite, andesite-basalt, basalt, and olivine basalt. In the Kahuan area, the Middle-Late Eocene volcanic-agglomerative-sedimentary complex is cut by trachyandesite and olivine basaltic dykes of Late Eocene to Oligocene age. In the Kahuan area, depending on the chemical composition of the host rocks, the chemistry of the hydrothermal fluids, temperature, and pressure, the alterations include propylitic, argillic, chloritic, zeolitic, silicic, and carbonate types. Chlorite, epidote, calcite, and albite are the characteristic minerals of the propylitic alteration zone, and volcanic and pyroclastic rocks with compositions ranging from andesite-basalt to olivine-basalt have undergone this alteration. Argyllitic alteration is characterized by the formation of clay minerals, especially kaolinite, montmorillonite, and illite, which are usually formed as a result of the action of acidic hydrothermal solutions on alkali feldspars. In this zone, volcanic and pyroclastic rocks with compositions ranging from andesite to trachyandesite have undergone argyllitic alteration. Zeolitic alteration is characterized by the formation of zeolite from primary silicate minerals by the action of low-temperature hydrothermal fluids. Siliceous and carbonate alteration is observed in vein-vein forms, filling of the space between the cutting pieces, filling of pores and silicification of the ground in volcanic-sedimentary rocks. In the Kahavan area, copper mineralization is observed mostly in vein-vein forms, shear and filling of pores in volcanic-sedimentary rocks. In the Kahavan area, vein systems are divided into siliceous, siliceous-sulfide, iron oxide, siliceous-chlorite ± calcite and siliceous-calcite vein types based on their important constituent minerals. In shear mineralization, the empty spaces between the cutting pieces are filled with waste and mineral minerals (quartz, chlorite, calcite, chalcocite and malachite). The material of the sections is andesite, trachyandesite, andesite-basalt and basalt. In the mineralization of the type of filling of empty spaces, waste minerals (quartz, chlorite and calcite) and minerals (chalcocite, chrysocolla, malachite and azurite) are formed in the cavities of volcanic rocks (andesite, andesite-basalt, olivine basalt) and in the space between the pieces in epiclastic tuffs. Based on mineralogical, structural and textural studies, in the Kahuan mineralization system, minerals are formed in two endogenous (hypogene) and exogenous (supergene) stages. In the endogenous stage, sulfide minerals such as pyrite, chalcopyrite and primary chalcocite are formed from hot metal-bearing hydrothermal fluid. Chalcosite is the main mineral in this stage, which is rarely accompanied by scattered and fine grains of pyrite, chalcopyrite and bornite (Fig. 9a, b). In the exogenous stage, due to the activity of atmospheric waters under surface oxidation conditions (oxidative supergene), minerals such as chrysocolla, malachite, azurite, iron oxides and hydroxides (hematite, goethite and limonite) are formed, and in the reduced supergene zone, secondary chalcosite, covellite and rarely pure copper are formed (Fig. p-c). Exogenous minerals are formed as a result of the replacement of primary sulfide minerals such as chalcosite and chalcopyrite (mostly chalcosite). Quartz, chlorite, epidote, zeolite, calcite and gypsum are important waste minerals in the Kahuan mineralization system. Waste and mineral minerals are observed in the form of vein-vein, shear, pore-filling, radial, and replacement textures.In the chemical classification diagrams, the volcanic rock and dike samples are located in the range of andesite, dacite, trachyandesite, basaltic andesite and basalt. In the magmatic series and tectonic environment determination diagrams, the rocks of the region are of the calc-alkaline type and are located in the range of continental arc basalts related to subduction zones. In the ore samples, the amounts of Cu, Ag, Zn, Pb, and Mo elements have been compared with their crustal abundance. The results of these studies show that the concentrations of copper and silver are on the verge of enrichment in the form of ore concentrations and lead are on the verge of enrichment, while the amounts of other elements are at a low level. In this study, the average concentrations of trace elements and rare earth elements in the volcanic rock and ore samples have been normalized to the composition of the early mantle and chondrites. The geochemical behavior of the elements in these patterns indicates the genetic affinity between volcanic and mineralized rocks. The sulfur isotopic ratio values (δ34S) of -7.6 ppm and -5.4 ppm (average -6.5 ppm) in the chalcocite of the Kahavan copper deposit have been compared with some mantle-type copper deposits in Iran and Chile, and the Kahavan deposit is most similar to the eastern Narbaghi mantle-type copper deposit. The probable origin of the sulfur in chalcocite is from primary pyrites formed in the initial diagenesis stage during the bacterial reduction of seawater sulfate.Comparison of the geological and mineralogical characteristics of the Kahavan copper (silver) deposit with different types of copper deposits shows that this deposit is most similar to copper deposits with volcanic host rocks. Therefore, some of the important characteristics of this deposit have been compared with types of copper deposits with volcanic host rocks (Michigan-type copper deposits, mantle and volcanic red layer), among which the Kahavan deposit has a great similarity with mantle-type copper deposits. In the Kahavan area, copper mineralization has formed and developed in the following three main stages. Pre-mineralization stage, in this stage, volcanic-sedimentary activities in the form of alternating lava and pyroclastic eruptions (with intermediate to mafic composition) and sedimentary in the subduction-related volcanic arc environment have occurred, and a sequence of volcanic, pyroclastic and sedimentary rocks of Middle-Late Eocene age has been formed. In this stage, gas-rich basaltic lavas, after eruption and rapid cooling, have developed extensive fractures and numerous cavities have appeared in them. At the same time, in the initial diagenesis stage, the activity of sulfate-reducing bacteria has created reducing conditions in the sediments and provided the basis for pyrite deposition in the mineralizing host rocks. The appearance of pyrite in this stage has been a key factor in creating a suitable reducing environment for the formation of copper-bearing minerals in the later stages. Burial and Mild Metamorphism Stage As material deposition continues and the thickness of the volcanic-sedimentary sequence increases, these units undergo a deep burial process. Due to increased temperature and pressure, mild metamorphism occurs and causes the release of copper and other elements from the crystal lattice of silicate minerals such as feldspar, amphibole, pyroxene, and magnetite. This event could indicate changes in water-brine chemistry in the basin and initiates the leaching of copper from the host volcaniclastic rocks. In this process, minerals such as feldspars are altered to secondary minerals such as zeolite, calcite, epidote, sericite, and amphibole, and pyroxenes to chlorite, epidote, biotite, magnetite, hematite, sulfides, and primary magnetite to hematite. The significant volume of volcano-sedimentary sequences, volcanic activity, and deep and semi-deep intrusions (diorite and monzodiorite masses and basaltic and trachyandesitic olivine dikes) in this region can generate high temperatures, which cause the movement of interpore fluids and oxidant brines, and these fluids are enriched in copper due to the high ambient temperature and circulation in volcanic and pyroclastic rocks. The liberated copper is transported in the form of copper ions by high-temperature fluids resulting from burial diagenesis and directed towards zones with high permeability and previous reduction conditions. In these places, geochemical (such as pyrite-bearing rocks, carbonate rocks, etc.) and physical (the presence of impermeable layers such as fault ridges, etc.) barriers cause the instability of copper-bearing complexes, and primary copper sulfide minerals such as chalcopyrite, bornite, and chalcocite form in vein-vein, shear, and cavity-filling forms in host volcanic and pyroclastic rocks. Iron released from pyrite decomposition precipitates in the form of hematite. After the formation of primary copper sulfide ore, the Eocene sedimentary volcanic sequence has been folded and faulted by orogenic and uplift phases. In the exogenous stage, the effect of oxygenated atmospheric waters causes the oxidation of primary copper sulfides. As a result of this process, primary copper-bearing minerals such as chalcocite, chalcopyrite, and bornite are replaced, and malachite, chrysocolla, azurite, hematite, goethite, and limonite are formed in the oxidized supergene, and secondary chalcocite, covellite, and rarely pure copper are formed in the reduced supergene. Oxidation processes not only change the mineralogical composition of the ore, but also cause secondary enrichment of copper in the surface parts of the deposit. https://esrj.sbu.ac.ir/article_107331.html The South Caucasus has long been exposed to dynamic interactions of power and influence, further complicated by a complex history of shifting alliances and territorial disputes. At a time when the world is witnessing a period of geopolitical reconfiguration triggered by the Russia-Ukraine conflict and intensified global competition for power, the repercussions of these changes are resonating strongly in the South Caucasus. This article examines the complex landscape of the South Caucasus, analyzing its evolving geopolitical dynamics and the potential emergence of a new security order.Traditionally, the region has been under significant Russian influence, which Moscow has regarded as part of its "sphere of privileged interests." However, Russia’s regional dominance has faced serious challenges, primarily due to the consequences of its war in Ukraine and domestic economic difficulties. This shift in the global geopolitical landscape has created opportunities for other external actors to fill the vacuum left by Russia’s declining influence. Meanwhile, the three South Caucasus countries — Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia — have strategically positioned themselves to capitalize on these changing dynamics, safeguard their national interests, and enhance their independence.Recent developments in regional politics signal a significant transition toward a new security order. Therefore, examining this ongoing transformation and its potential implications for the future of the South Caucasus is essential. Accordingly, the present study seeks to shed light on this ongoing transition by exploring the roots of the Russian-dominated security order, its subsequent decline, and the possible emergence of a new security framework in the South Caucasus, while also assessing its implications.A deeper examination of the intricate geopolitical changes in the South Caucasus provides a comprehensive understanding of the emerging security order, along with the opportunities and challenges it presents for the countries and actors involved. While Russia seeks to regain its influence over its former republics, new actors such as Turkey and Iran have quickly entered the arena. Initially struggling to define their positions, they were later followed — albeit gradually and cautiously — by more distant actors such as the United States and the European Union, primarily for economic reasons. These dynamics highlight the growing importance of the region in international politics. For instance, the United States, through its involvement and support for the Zangezur Corridor, has defined the South Caucasus as a region of vital interest.The South Caucasus, as the connecting link between Europe, Asia, and the Middle East, is considered one of the most sensitive and strategically important geopolitical regions in the world. With its unique geographical position, rich energy resources (particularly Azerbaijan’s natural gas), vital transportation corridors, and ethnic-religious diversity, the region has always been a focal point for the convergence and competition of great powers and regional actors.MethodologyThe present research is an applied study employing a futures studies approach. The main method used is the Quantitative Delphi Technique conducted over three successive rounds, complemented by morphological scenario planning and cross-impact analysis. In the first stage, a systematic literature review and semi-structured interviews with eight initial experts identified 25 key factors. A Delphi panel was then formed consisting of 32 carefully selected experts (12 university professors and researchers, 8 senior political-security analysts, 7 former diplomats and ambassadors, and 5 specialists from international organizations). The selection criterion was a minimum of 10 years of relevant experience and in-depth familiarity with the Caucasus region.In the first through third rounds, structured questionnaires were administered, consisting of two sections: a five-point Likert scale to measure the importance of factors and a 0–100 percent probability scale to assess the likelihood of scenarios. After each round, statistical feedback (including means, standard deviations, and coefficients of variation) was provided to the experts, and the questionnaire was revised accordingly. Consensus was evaluated using a coefficient of variation (CV) ≤ 0.5 and the non-parametric Kruskal-Wallis test (p < 0.05). Finally, by integrating the Delphi results with cross-impact analysis of the factors, four probable scenarios were developed for the horizon of 2035. Instrument reliability was confirmed using Cronbach’s alpha (above 0.85), and content validity was verified through expert judgment. This mixed-method approach provides suitable validity and generalizability for security futures studies.Discussion and FindingsThe results of the quantitative Delphi method indicated strong consensus on 18 out of the 25 initial factors. The relationship between Azerbaijan and Armenia emerged as the most central variable, with a statistically significant difference (p < 0.05). This finding suggests that the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict remains the “mother risk” of the region. The rise of the Turkey-Azerbaijan axis and the critical importance of transportation corridors indicate a shift of power from the north to the southwest of the region. The weakening of Russia (ranked 4th) enjoys relative consensus, although some experts pointed to Moscow’s limited capacity for a comeback.The dominant scenario — Fragile Multilateral Balance — characterized by the relative dominance of Turkey and Azerbaijan, limited Russian presence, a more marginal role for Iran, and Western economic engagement, is the most probable future. This scenario is fragile because it heavily depends on the stability of Baku-Yerevan relations and effective corridor management. The regional cooperation scenario, although desirable for all actors (especially Iran), has only a 27.3% probability. The high standard deviation (15.8) reflects serious expert skepticism. Its realization requires the establishment of practical confidence-building mechanisms, such as joint management of the Zangezur Corridor, effective 3+3 dialogue, and multilateral security agreements. Experts emphasized that without resolving the Armenia-Azerbaijan issue, this scenario would remain largely unattainable.The polarization scenario carries a 16.8% probability but involves very high risk. In this case, Russia-West and Iran-Turkey rivalries would turn the region into an arena for proxy conflicts. Experts warned that escalation of the Ukraine war or Iran-Israel/Western tensions could activate this scenario.The disorder scenario is the least probable (only 7.3%), yet it is the most destructive. In this scenario, the continuation of frozen conflicts, severe weakness of regional institutions, and unregulated competition among actors would lead to chronic instability, increased forced migration, economic collapse in some areas, and the complete marginalization of several actors. This situation could transform the South Caucasus into a gray, insecure zone lacking effective governance, with negative consequences extending far beyond the region’s borders.The strongest barrier remains the continuation of territorial and ethnic conflicts, which are rooted in history, identity, and geography. This structural factor challenges any attempt to build an indigenous security architecture. Great power competition, as the second barrier, keeps the region in a state of securitization. In contrast, confidence-building mechanisms were identified as the strongest facilitator. Experts stressed the need to move from zero-sum approaches to win-win games. Diversification of corridors can also reduce dependencies and create grounds for cooperation.Overall, the findings indicate that the South Caucasus is undergoing a structural geopolitical transition from a Russian-dominated unipolar order toward a fragile multipolar one. This transition is neither inevitable nor linear; rather, it will largely depend on the strategic choices of the actors over the next 5–7 years. Theoretically, the results align closely with structural realism (Waltz and Mearsheimer) and the Copenhagen School of Regional Security. The region remains in the stage of securitization, and desecuritization requires a discursive shift and the creation of a shared security identity.ConclusionThe South Caucasus, as one of the most sensitive geopolitical regions in the world, is experiencing a profound structural transition. Utilizing the Quantitative Delphi Method and scenario planning techniques, and with the participation of 32 distinguished experts, the present study identified the key factors shaping the future security order of the region and outlined probable scenarios up to the 2035 horizon.The most significant finding is the prominence of Azerbaijan-Armenia relations as the most central key factor (mean = 4.78). This variable not only influences other factors but also acts as the focal point of developments. Following this are the role of the Turkey-Azerbaijan axis, the status of transportation corridors (especially Zangezur and the Middle Corridor), and the relative decline of Russian presence. This pattern confirms that conflict geography, energy, and corridors remain the three main pillars of South Caucasus geopolitics.Among the four scenarios developed, the Fragile Multilateral Balance scenario, with nearly 49% probability, is considered the most likely future. In this scenario, Turkey and Azerbaijan will gain relative economic and military dominance, Russia will maintain a limited but intelligent presence, Iran will play a more marginal role, and the West will engage primarily through economic tools and energy. The fragility of this scenario makes it unstable, as even minor border tensions or disruptions in the corridors could push it toward polarization or disorder.Although the indigenous regional cooperation scenario is the most desirable from a normative perspective (27% probability), its realization demands strong political will and practical confidence-building mechanisms due to deep historical mistrust, geopolitical rivalries, and weak regional institutions. The two negative scenarios (polarization and disorder), despite lower probabilities, carry extremely high destructive potential and must not be overlooked by policymakers.Theoretically, the findings are largely consistent with structural realism and the Copenhagen School’s Regional Security Theory. The region is still in the stage of securitization, and moving toward desecuritization requires shifting from zero-sum competition to win-win cooperation. Moreover, the study highlights the growing importance of non-traditional factors such as corridors and energy diplomacy in shaping new security orders, demonstrating that in today’s world, economic geography is as significant as political geography.Keywords: South Caucasus, Geopolitics, Regional Order, Regional Actors, Extra-Regional Actors https://esrj.sbu.ac.ir/article_107332.html Today, free zones play a role as places for connecting to the global economy. These zones are a form of territorial exceptionalism that serves to attract economic processes that the national economy does not have the capacity to address. Free zones are seen as gateways to the global economy, providing the ability to link the national economy to the global or networked economy. These zones are usually established in geographically advantageous locations for trade and are often located next to a seaport, airport, river port, or dry port. In fact, the inclusion of a port with logistical capabilities is key to their success. Free zones have been created to integrate into global production and trade, to the extent that the export-oriented economies of Southeast Asia have integrated India and Dubai (which played an intermediary role) into the global economy. This reduces the friction created by borders by reducing the complexity of customs and global markets and connecting two customs areas outside their own borders. These areas act as nodes of the network economy and play the role of a gateway for countries to enter the global economy. In the present study, the central issue is, in fact, the political discourses during the presidential periods of Iran, which determine the type of view each period has of international politics. The political discourses of the presidential periods and their type of view of international politics determine how these discourses have been able to increase the level of links of free zones with the global economy or reduce the entanglement of these areas with the global economy at three scales: neighborhood, regional, and global. From the perspective of political geography scholars, the type of approach of each political discourse to international politics at the macro level is interpreted as geopolitical codes. For Peter Taylor and Colin Flint, the geopolitical code is actually the operational agenda of a country's foreign policy beyond its borders, which evaluates geographical locations at all three scales: local (neighborhood), regional, and global to identify friends and foes. Contrary to the general view, the geopolitical code is defined as "a set of strategic assumptions that a state makes about other states in adopting its foreign policy and reveals the relationship between geography and politics." According to Flint, one president may use language in his discourse that indicates unity and friendship, such as Bill Clinton in the United States, while another president may emphasize the language of hostility and threat, such as the two Bush administrations. In fact, in these speeches, presidents portray their worldviews and interpret them for the public because, according to Sprotts (1965), the decisions of statesmen and the concerns of the public are based on geographical realities. In fact, these speeches are the geopolitical representation and the fifth calculation of geopolitical codes that are formulated in speeches. Since speeches are a major geopolitical activity and reflect the regional emphases of presidencies over time, in this study, we seek to find enemy countries in three scales of neighborhood, regional, and global in the discursive periods of Iranian presidencies using the content analysis method so that we can analyze the transnational links of free zones as a case study with the global economy. Basically, geopolitical codes are created and formed with the aim of identifying friends and enemies within these discourses.Materials and MethodsThe term content analysis is a relatively new term, dating back to 1961. The late 1950s saw researchers interested in machine translation, mechanical abstraction, and information retrieval systems. Computer languages ​​suitable for processing literal data emerged, and scientific journals began to focus on computer applications in psychology, the humanities, and the social sciences. The large volume of written documents to process in content analysis and the repetitive nature of coding have made the computer a natural and yet difficult ally for the content analyst. The development of software for processing literal (as opposed to numerical) data stimulated new fields of exploration, such as information retrieval, information systems, computational stylistics, computational linguistics, word processing technology, and computational content analysis. With the development of computer systems, data processing capabilities increased, and content analysis became possible on large volumes of data. Content analysis is the process of converting qualities into quantities and then converting these quantities into qualities. This method is mostly used in trend research, integrated research, examining the image of realities, and also examining the degree to which programs conform to structural and content characteristics and features. Content analysis is a qualitative research method for identifying, analyzing, and interpreting semantic patterns and the frequency of elements in text, media, and documents. The method can be quantitative (counting words, concepts) or qualitative (analyzing themes, hidden meanings) and is used in the study of media, politics, education, and the humanities. The first move toward qualitative content analysis can be traced to Krakoweir's article entitled The Challenge of Qualitative Content Analysis (1952). This article initiated a discussion of strategies used in content analysis in the 1950s. In this article, Krakoer formally recognized the qualitative content analysis method and, by stating the weaknesses of the quantitative method, highlighted the need to create a humanistic and qualitative version of content analysis. This research, in fact, has focused on the methodology of the article by John O’Loughlin and Richard Grant and the article by Colin Flint et al. for the first time to find geopolitical codes of Iran. Finally, mental maps of political actors are extracted from the geopolitical codes. Hence, it uses four foreign policy discourses as its organizing framework, in which it tracks significant differences between governments in terms of support for global and regional policies through speech analysis. It has been used to extract codes from the presidential website as well as newspapers, articles, and books as a data collection method. In fact, the more speeches, paragraphs, and words about a region or country, the more it reflects the government's concern and importance for that place. Of course, national events within each country may increase the number of speeches, or worsening economic conditions and war may reduce the number of speeches. Discourses are merely abstract and are considered as general frameworks within which the characteristics of geopolitical codes are constructed. Therefore, this research, using the method of content analysis and by collecting library and documentary data, has sought to find Iran's geopolitical codes in recent political discourses and their effects on the transnational links of free zones.Conclusion and DiscussionSince geopolitical codes are a guideline for foreign policy, foreign policy orientations can be found in presidential speeches, which are themselves geopolitical actions. These orientations include presidential emphases on geographical regions and other countries. Therefore, it can be said that, contrary to Mackinder's theories, geopolitical perceptions at three scales of neighborhood, regional, and global are affected by developments and shifts in internal forces with different ideologies. Therefore, in this regard, one speech was randomly selected each year from four Iranian political actors with the presidency, and then their content was analyzed for quantification, and an attempt was made to examine changes in global and regional emphases. Then, enemy countries were extracted from these speeches, and finally their impact on the transnational ties of free zones was analyzed. In general, in these periods, due to limited access, speeches were selected from various sources including websites, articles, books, and newspapers. The results of the research indicate that political discourses during presidential terms that used friend-enemy relations less in international politics and did not reproduce politics in transnational spaces, have enabled Iran's free zones to establish more links with the network economy and increase the volume of foreign direct investment during those same periods.ConclusionSince geopolitical codes determine the foreign policy orientations of countries by determining friendly and enemy countries beyond their borders. Therefore, in these five calculations, as the number of friendly countries increases, the level of openness in the field of foreign policy also increases. These codes, which are determined by governments in the puzzle world, determine the level of relations with the network economy and the amount of foreign investment. Geopolitical codes can be analyzed in various speeches by the presidential administration. Therefore, these codes determine the level of connection of a country with the global economy. Therefore, according to the findings of this study, it can be said that in Iran, the higher the level of openness of geopolitical codes, the greater the amount of foreign investment and, consequently, the level of connections with the network economy. As is clear from the graph below, the level of openness of geopolitical codes has a direct relationship with the level of connections with the network economy. On the other hand, according to the chart below, it can be said that in the late period of the constructive discourse, the level of relations between free zones and the network economy has increased, and in the period of the dialogue of civilizations, these relations are at their best. In the discourse period of justice and compassion, the level of relations and openness of geopolitical codes reaches its lowest level, and as a result, the amount of foreign investment decreases significantly. Also, in the first period of the discourse of prudence and hope, the level of openness increases, and as a result, foreign investments in free zones expand. However, after the rupture of the JCPOA and the imposition of sanctions, these investments and, as a result, the links between free zones have decreased. https://esrj.sbu.ac.ir/article_107333.html IntroductionMine valuation is one of the most important disciplines within mineral economics and resource management, serving as a fundamental basis for investment decisions, mine acquisition and transfer, financing, taxation, royalty determination, privatization, and dispute resolution (Hellewell, 1987; Guarnera and Martin, 1992). The valuation of mining assets is considerably more complex than the valuation of conventional industrial assets because mining projects are characterized by geological uncertainty, fluctuating commodity prices, technical risks, environmental obligations, regulatory constraints, and long project lifecycles (Savolainen, 2016; Ali and Rafique, 2024; You, 2025). Consequently, determining the true economic value of a mining property requires a comprehensive assessment of numerous interrelated factors (Kreuzer and Etheridge, 2010; Haque et al., 2014; Patton et al., 2025).Traditionally, three major valuation approaches have been employed in the mining industry: the market approach, the cost approach, and the income approach (Lilford and Minnitt, 2002). The market approach estimates value by comparison with similar transactions and market benchmarks. The cost approach evaluates assets based on replacement or reproduction costs, while the income approach, particularly discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis, determines value according to projected future cash flows (Palm et al., 1987; Hall and Nicholls, 2007; Dias, 2004). Although these methods are widely accepted and extensively applied, they often fail to adequately address the multidimensional nature of mining projects and the uncertainties associated with geological and operational conditions (Miranda and Brandão, 2013; Aminrostamkolaee et al., 2017; Chandra and Hartley, 2024).The mining sector has experienced significant changes in recent decades. Increased volatility in global commodity markets, growing environmental concerns, evolving regulatory frameworks, and heightened investor expectations have intensified the need for more comprehensive valuation methodologies. Decision-makers increasingly require approaches capable of integrating both quantitative and qualitative information to better reflect the actual conditions of mining projects. As a result, multi-criteria evaluation frameworks have gained considerable attention as practical tools for addressing the complexity inherent in mine valuation.In Iran, the valuation of mining usufruct rights is generally conducted through executive regulations, expert assessments, and coefficient-based procedures (Raeesi, 2015). Existing valuation frameworks primarily emphasize technical and operational aspects of mining activities and often rely on predetermined adjustment coefficients. While these methods provide practical guidance, they may not fully capture the effects of economic uncertainty, infrastructure conditions, environmental constraints, legal considerations, and professional judgment. Consequently, there remains a need for a more comprehensive framework capable of integrating all relevant dimensions affecting mining usufruct value (Jalali et al., 2023; You, 2025; Royalties, 2026).The present study aims to develop a multi-criteria framework for the valuation of mining usufruct rights by incorporating expert knowledge and a broad spectrum of technical, economic, environmental, legal, and managerial factors. The proposed model seeks to improve the transparency, consistency, and reliability of mine valuation practices. To evaluate its practical applicability, the framework is applied to the Kouh-Kamar Copper Mine as a representative case study.Materials and MethodsThis research is an applied study conducted using a descriptive-analytical approach. The methodology consisted of several sequential stages. Initially, an extensive review of scientific literature, valuation standards, mining regulations, expert reports, and previous studies related to mine appraisal was carried out. This review facilitated the identification of factors potentially influencing the valuation of mining usufruct rights.Following the literature review, a preliminary list of criteria and sub-criteria was prepared. The identified factors were subsequently evaluated and refined through consultation with specialists possessing substantial expertise in mining engineering, mineral economics, mine management, valuation, and legal assessment. This process enabled the development of a conceptual framework encompassing the most relevant variables affecting mine value.The statistical population included mining experts, official valuation specialists, university academics, consultants, and professionals actively involved in mine assessment and economic evaluation. Forty-nine experts participated in the study and provided their opinions regarding the relative importance of the identified criteria.Data collection was conducted through a structured questionnaire based on a five-point Likert scale. Respondents were asked to evaluate the significance of each criterion and sub-criterion in determining mining usufruct value. The questionnaire was designed to capture expert perceptions regarding geological, technical, economic, legal, environmental, and managerial aspects of mine valuation.The collected data were analyzed using SPSS software. Descriptive statistical indicators, including mean, median, mode, and standard deviation, were calculated to determine the relative importance of the identified factors. Based on the statistical analysis and expert evaluations, the final framework was organized into nine principal criteria and forty-four sub-criteria.The principal criteria included geological characteristics and reserve conditions, economic indicators, technical and productivity factors, engineering judgment and professional experience, infrastructure conditions, risks and uncertainties, operational and legal history, environmental considerations, and valuation objectives. Together, these criteria represent a comprehensive set of variables influencing the economic value of mining rights.To assess the applicability of the proposed framework, the Kouh-Kamar Copper Mine was selected as a case study. The mine is located southwest of Shahroud in Semnan Province, Iran, and contains economically significant copper mineralization. Geological information, reserve data, mining plans, operational characteristics, infrastructure conditions, and economic records were collected from official reports, mining licenses, technical documentation, and field observations.The mine is currently exploited through open-pit mining operations and contains both oxide and sulfide copper mineralization. Favorable accessibility, existing infrastructure, and continuous mining activity make it a suitable case for evaluating the effectiveness of the proposed valuation framework.Results and DiscussionThe findings demonstrate that mining usufruct valuation is inherently a multi-dimensional process that requires consideration of numerous interrelated factors. The results obtained from expert evaluations indicate that geological characteristics and reserve conditions constitute the most influential category affecting mine value. Ore grade, reserve quantity, reserve confidence, and geological continuity were identified as the most important sub-criteria within this category.These findings are consistent with the fundamental principles of mineral economics, according to which the economic potential of a mining project is strongly dependent on the quantity and quality of its mineral resources. Deposits characterized by larger reserves, higher grades, and greater geological confidence generally exhibit lower investment risk and higher economic attractiveness.Economic indicators emerged as another highly influential group of criteria. Market conditions, production costs, profitability potential, commodity price trends, and macroeconomic stability were recognized as critical determinants of mine value. The results highlight the importance of incorporating broader economic considerations into valuation procedures rather than relying exclusively on geological and technical information.Technical and productivity-related factors also received substantial importance. Elements such as mining method, stripping ratio, operational efficiency, production planning, equipment utilization, and technological capability directly influence production costs and long-term profitability. Consequently, these factors play a significant role in determining the overall value of mining usufruct rights.One of the notable findings of the study is the importance of engineering judgment and professional experience. While quantitative methods provide valuable analytical support, expert knowledge remains essential for interpreting geological uncertainty, operational complexity, and project-specific conditions. The results indicate that experienced professionals contribute significantly to the reliability of valuation outcomes, particularly in situations where available information is incomplete or uncertain.Risk and uncertainty factors were also identified as major contributors to valuation decisions. Geological uncertainty, grade variability, technical challenges, financial risks, regulatory changes, and market fluctuations all influence the expected economic performance of mining projects. The findings emphasize that valuation frameworks should explicitly account for uncertainty in order to provide realistic and defensible estimates of mine value.Infrastructure conditions represent another important component of the valuation process. Accessibility, transportation networks, availability of water and electricity, communication facilities, and proximity to processing plants can substantially influence operating costs and project feasibility. Mines benefiting from well-developed infrastructure generally demonstrate improved economic performance and lower operational risks.Environmental and legal considerations were also incorporated into the proposed framework. Although these factors received relatively lower rankings compared with geological and economic criteria, they remain significant because environmental liabilities, regulatory compliance requirements, and legal constraints may directly affect project sustainability and profitability. Increasing attention to environmental governance in the mining industry further reinforces the need to incorporate these dimensions into valuation methodologies.Comparison of the proposed framework with traditional valuation approaches reveals several advantages. Conventional procedures often focus on a limited set of technical and economic variables and may overlook qualitative factors affecting project performance. In contrast, the proposed model provides a structured mechanism for integrating quantitative information with expert judgment and contextual considerations. This comprehensive perspective contributes to a more balanced and realistic assessment of mining usufruct value.Another important advantage of the framework is its flexibility. The model can be applied under various data availability conditions and is therefore suitable not only for producing mines but also for exploration-stage and development-stage projects. Furthermore, the framework can support legal valuation assignments, governmental assessments, privatization procedures, and investment analyses where conventional financial data may be incomplete.Application of the framework to the Kouh-Kamar Copper Mine confirmed its practical effectiveness. The mine exhibits several positive characteristics, including substantial reserves, favorable mineral grades, active mining operations, multiple extraction zones, and adequate infrastructure. These features contribute positively to the overall value of the mining usufruct rights. The case study also demonstrated the ability of the model to systematically integrate geological, technical, economic, environmental, and legal information into a unified valuation process.From a managerial perspective, the framework offers a transparent basis for decision-making and may contribute to improved governance of mineral resources. Regulatory agencies, investors, mining companies, financial institutions, and valuation professionals can utilize the model to enhance consistency and reduce subjectivity in valuation procedures.ConclusionsThe results of this study demonstrate that the valuation of mining usufruct rights requires a comprehensive and multidimensional approach capable of incorporating geological, economic, technical, environmental, legal, and managerial considerations. Traditional valuation methods, while useful, may not adequately capture the complexity and uncertainty associated with modern mining projects.The proposed multi-criteria framework provides a systematic methodology for integrating diverse valuation factors into a coherent assessment model. The findings indicate that geological characteristics and economic indicators are the most influential determinants of mine value, while technical performance, infrastructure conditions, risk factors, environmental issues, legal considerations, and professional judgment also play important roles.Application of the framework to the Kouh-Kamar Copper Mine confirmed its practical applicability and demonstrated its capacity to generate a comprehensive evaluation of mining usufruct rights. By incorporating both quantitative and qualitative information, the model contributes to greater transparency, consistency, and reliability in valuation practices.The framework may support a wide range of applications, including investment decision-making, mine transactions, privatization processes, royalty assessments, taxation, financing activities, and dispute resolution. Furthermore, its structured approach can facilitate communication among stakeholders and improve confidence in valuation outcomes.Future research may focus on integrating advanced multi-criteria decision-making techniques, fuzzy logic approaches, probabilistic modeling, and uncertainty analysis into the proposed framework. Application of the model to different metallic and non-metallic deposits may also provide valuable insights regarding its adaptability and robustness under varying geological and economic conditions.Overall, the integration of expert knowledge with multi-criteria evaluation principles represents a promising direction for improving mine valuation methodologies and supporting more effective management of mineral resources.