Snow cover changes and affecting hydro-climate variables in Sabalan Mountainous region in Northwest Iran

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Department of Natural Resources, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil Iran

2 Department of Soil and Water Research, Qazvin Agricultural and natural Reources Research Center, Qazvin Province, Qazvin, Iran

3 Department of Watershed Management Engineering, Faculty of Natural Resources, Tarbiat Modares University, Noor, Iran

Abstract

Snow, a key part of the water balance in mountains, supports flow in snow-fed streams. This study aims to investigate snow cover variations and the effects of hydro-climatic variables on it in the Sabalan mountain region of Ardabil province, Iran. Snow cover changes were assessed through interpretation of Landsat satellite images. The Mann-Kendall test analyzed trends in temperature, precipitation, and discharge, while Pearson correlation assessed their relationship with snow cover. The results showed that snow cover decreased by 12.7% in the period between 1991 and 2003, and by 65.1% for the study period (1991-2015). Discharge had a decreasing trend in all hydrometric stations except Lay station in December, with significant reductions observed at Pole-Soltani and Nir hydrometric stations at 99% and 95% confidence levels, respectively. Additionally, Meshgin-Shahr hydrometric station showed an increasing trend in December discharge, while precipitation at Nir rain gauge station in January increased significantly. Although the temperature of both Meshgin-Shahr and Nir meteorological stations increased, correlation analysis did not identify a significant relationship between snow cover and hydro-climatic variables in the region. The study reveals a significant decline in snow cover in the Sabalan mountain region, with a 65.1% reduction from 1991 to 2015, indicating potential impacts on water availability. Despite rising temperatures and varying trends in precipitation and discharge, no strong correlation was found between snow cover and hydro-climatic variables. This suggests that other factors, possibly local microclimates or land use changes, may influence snow dynamics. The results revealed the complexity of snow-hydroclimate interactions and the need for integrated monitoring to manage future water resources.

Keywords

Main Subjects

References

Aghelpour, P., Guan, Y., Bahrami-Pichaghchi, H., Mohammadi, B., Kisi, O. and Zhang, D., 2020. Using the MODIS sensor for snow cover modeling and the assessment of drought effects on snow cover in a mountainous area. Remote Sensing, v. 12(20), DOI: 10.3390/rs12203437.
Ahmad, I., Tang, D., Wang, T., Wang, M. and Wagan, B., 2015. Precipitation trends over time using Mann-Kendall and spearman’s rho tests in swat river basin, Pakistan. Advances in Meteorology, v.2, p. 1-15,     DOI: 10.1155/2015/431860.
Asgari, E., Mostafazadeh, R. and Talebi Khiavi, H., 2025. Projecting the Climate Change Impact on Water Yield in a Cold Mountainous Watershed, Ardabil. Journal of the Earth and Space Physics, v. 50(4).
Baig, M.R.I., Shahfahad, Naikoo, M.W., Ansari, A.H., Ahmad, S. and Rahman, A., 2021. Spatio-temporal analysis of precipitation pattern and trend using standardized precipitation index and Mann–Kendall test in coastal Andhra Pradesh. Modeling Earth Systems and Environment, v. 8(1), DOI:  10.1007/s40808-021-01262-w.
Banerjee, A., Chen, R., Meadows, M.E., Sengupta, D., Pathak, S., Xia, Z. and Mal, S., 2021. Tracking 21st century climate dynamics of the Third Pole: An analysis of topo-climate impacts on snow cover in the central Himalaya using Google Earth Engine. International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation, v. 103, 102490.
Barnett, T.P., Adam, J.C. and Lettenmaier, D.P., 2005. Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions. Nature, v. 438, p. 303-309.
Bühler, Y., Marty, M., Egli, L., Veitinger, J., Jonas, T., Thee, P. and Ginzler, C., 2015. Snow depth mapping in high-alpine catchments using digital photogrammetry. The Cryosphere, v. 9(1), p. 229-243.
Chattopadhyay, G., Chakraborthy, P. and Chattopadhyay, S., 2012. Mann–Kendall trend analysis of tropospheric ozone and its modeling using ARIMA. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, v. 110, p. 321-328.
Chen, J., 2022. Glacierized and snow-cover area variation in O'Higgins lake area from 2000 to 2020. In Advances in Measurement Technology, Disaster Prevention and Mitigation, p. 56-64. CRC Press.
Chiew, F.H., Piechota, T.C., Dracup, J.A. and McMahon, T.A., 1998. El Nino/Southern Oscillation and Australian rainfall, streamflow and drought: Links and potential for forecasting. Journal of hydrology, v. 204(1-4), p. 138-149.
Congalton, R.G. and Green, K., 2019. Assessing the accuracy of remotely sensed data: principles and practices. CRC press.
Demir, V., Esra, U.R.A.Y., Orhan, O., Yavariabdi, A. and Kusetogullari, H., 2021. Trend analysis of ground-water levels and the effect of effective soil stress change: the case study of Konya closed basin. Avrupa Bilim ve Teknoloji Dergisi, v. 24, p. 515-522.
Ghafari, S., Ghorbani, A., Moameri, M., Mostafazadeh, R. and Bidarlord, M., 2018. Composition and structure of species along altitude gradient in Moghan-Sabalan rangelands, Iran. Journal of Mountain Science, v. 15(6), p. 1209-1228.
Guan, X., Zeng, X., Shi, R., Chen, H. and Wei, Z., 2023. Changes in snow parameterization over typical vegetation in the Northern Hemisphere. Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, v. 16(2), 100325.
Hall, D.K., Riggs, G.A. and Salomonson, V.V., 2016. MODIS/terra snow cover daily L3 global 500m grid, version 6. Boulder, CO: NASA National Snow and Ice Data Center Distributed Active Archive Center. Doi: 10.5067/MODIS/MOD10A1.006
Hamed, K.H., 2008. Trend detection in hydrologic data: The Mann-Kendall trend test under the scaling hypothesis. Journal of Hydrology, v. 349(3-4), p. 350-363. Doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2007.11.009
Hanich, L., Chehbouni, A., Gascoin, S., Boudhar, A., Jarlan, L., Tramblay, Y. and Khabba, S., 2022. Snow hydrology in the Moroccan Atlas Mountains. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, v. 42, 101101.
Huang, Y., Xu, J., Xu, J., Zhao, Y., Yu, B., Liu, H. and Zheng, Z., 2022. HMRFS-TP: long-term daily gap-free snow cover products over the Tibetan Plateau from 2002 to 2021 based on Hidden Markov Random Field model. Earth System Science Data Discussions, p. 1-27.
Jafarli, J., 2019. Conditions for the formation of underground waters in the Turyanchay and Girdimanchay river basins. Journal of Technical and Natural Sciences, v. 4, p. 68-72.
Kakavand, M. and Bonyadi, Z., 2022. Evaluation of alteration zones around Parmagasu copper indication, Kuh Zar, Damghan, Iran, using ASTER satellite data. Geocarto International, v. 37(27), p. 16827-16845.
Kisi, O. and Ay, M., 2014. Comparison of Mann–Kendall and innovative trend method for water quality parameters of the Kizilirmak River, Turkey, Journal of Hydrology, v. 513, p. 362-375.
Knowles, N., 2015. Trends in snow cover and related quantities at weather stations in the conterminous United States, Journal of Climate, v. 28(19), p. 7518-7528.
Lettenmaier, D.P., Wood, E.F. and Wallis, J.R., 1994. Hydro-climatological trends in the continental United States, 1948-88, Journal of Climate, v. 7(4), p. 586-607.
Li, Z. et al, 2021. Climate and snow cover's impact on spring runoff in the Yellow River source region. Science of the Total Environment, v. 799, 149503.
Lillesand, T., Kiefer, R.W. and Chipman, J., 2015. Remote sensing and image interpretation. John Wiley & Sons.
Lindsay, C., Zhu, J., Miller, A. E., Kirchner, P., & Wilson, T. L. (2015). Deriving snow cover metrics for Alaska from MODIS. Remote sensing, v. 7(10), p. 12961-12985.
Ma, X., Yan, W., Zhao, C. and Kundzewicz, Z.W., 2019. Snow-Cover Area and Runoff Variation under Climate Change in the West Kunlun Mountains. Water, v. 11(11), 2246.
Marti, R., Gascoin, S., Berthier, E., De Pinel, M., Houet, T. and Laffly, D., 2016. Mapping snow depth in open alpine terrain from stereo satellite imagery. The Cryosphere, v. 10(4), p. 1361-1380.
Misra, A., Kumar, A., Bhambri, R., Haritashya, U.K., Verma, A., Dobhal, D.P., Gupta, A.K., Gupta, G. and Upadhyay, R., 2020. Topographic and climatic influence on seasonal snow cover: Implications for the hydrology of ungauged Himalayan basins, India, Journal of Hydrology, v. 585, 124716.
Moen, J. and Fredman, P., 2007. Effects of Climate Change on Alpine Skiing in Sweden, Journal of SustainableTourism, v. 15(4), p. 418-437.
Mohammad, L., Mondal, I., Bandyopadhyay, J., Pham, Q.B., Nguyen, X.C., Dinh, C.D. and Al-Quraishi, A.M.F., 2022. Assessment of spatio-temporal trends of satellite-based aerosol optical depth using Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator model. Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk, v. 13(1), p. 1270-1298.
Morshedi, A. and Hoseini Boroujeni, B., 2021. Monitoring and comparing NDSI changes using MODIS and ETM+ sensor data to estimate snow cover in North Karun Basin. Water and Soil Management and Modelling, v. 1(4), p. 68-82. Doi: 10.22098/mmws.2021.9453.1045
Mostafazadeh, R. and Mehri, S., 2018. Trends in variability of flood coefficient in river gauge stations of Ardabil Province, Iran. Journal of Watershed Management Research, v. 9(17), p. 82-95.
Mostafazadeh, R., Talebi Khiavi, H., Esmali-Ouri, A. and Golshan, M., 2023. Surface runoff and sediment yield response under the rainfall simulation condition controlled by soil variables of a semi-arid landscape. Environment, Development and Sustainability, v. 25(11), p. 12339-12356.
Namdar, F., Mahmoudi, S., Ouri, A.E. and Pazira, E., 2020. Investigating the effect of land use changes on soil erosion using RS-GIS and AHP-Fuzzy based techniques (Case Study: Qaresu Watershed, Ardabil, Iran). Nexo Scientific Journal, v. 33(02), p. 525-538.
Parchami, N., Mostafazadeh, R., Ouri, A.E. and Imani, R., 2024. Spatio-temporal analysis of river flow master recession curve characteristics over Ardabil province rivers. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/C, v. 134, 103586.
Partal, T. and Kahya, E., 2006. Trend analysis in Turkish precipitation data. Hydrological Processes: An International Journal, v. 20(9), p. 2011-2026.
R Core Team., 2024. R: A language and environment for statistical computing (Version 4.3.0). R Foundation for Statistical Computing. https://www.R-project.org
Robler, S., Witt, M.S., Ikonen, J., Brown, I.A. and Dietz, A.J., 2021. Remote sensing of snow cover variability and its influence on the runoff of Sápmi’s Rivers, Geosciences, v. 11(3), Doi. org/10.3390/geosciences11030130.
Setzer, J. and Higham, C., 2022. Global trends in climate change litigation: 2022 snapshot.
Sharifi, J., Jalili, A., Gasimov, S., Naqinezhad, A. and Azimi Motem, F., 2012. Study on floristic, life form and plant chorology of wetlands in northern and eastern slopes of Sabalan mountains. Taxonomy and Biosystematics, v. 4(10), p. 41-52.
Sharma, V., Mishra, V. and Joshi, P., 2012. Snow cover variation and streamflow simulation in a snow-fed river basin of the Northwest Himalaya. Journal of Mountain Science, v. 9(6), p. 853-868.
Singh, K.K., Singh, D.K., Thakur, N.K., Dewali, S.K., Negi, H.S., Snehmani, and Mishra, V.D., 2022. Detection and mapping of snow avalanche debris from Western Himalaya, India using remote sensing satellite images. Geocarto International, v. 37(9), p. 2561-2579.
Song, Y., Li, Z., Gu, Y. and Xiao, Z., 2022. Impact of Solar Activity on Snow Cover Variation over the Tibetan Plateau and Linkage to the Summer Precipitation in China. Frontiers in Earth Science, v. 9, 756762.
Sood, V., Singh, S., Taloor, A.K., Prashar, S. and Kaur, R., 2020. Monitoring and mapping of snow cover variability using topographically derived NDSI model over north Indian Himalayas during the period 2008–19. Applied Computing and Geosciences, v. 8, 100040.
Stern, N., 2007. The economics of climate change: The Stern Review, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, p. 1-556.
Talebi Khiavi, H. and Mostafazadeh, R., 2021. Land use change dynamics assessment in the Khiavchai region, the hillside of Sabalan mountainous area. Arabian Journal of Geosciences, v. 14(22), 2257.
Tan, X., Liu, B., Tan, X. and Chen, X., 2022. Long‐term water imbalances of watersheds resulting from biases in hydroclimatic data sets for water budget analyses. Water Resources Research, v. 58(3), e2021WR031209.
Tang, Z., Wang, X., Wang, J., Wang, X., Li, H. and Jiang, Z., 2017. Spatiotemporal variation of snow cover in Tianshan Mountains, Central Asia, based on cloud-free MODIS fractional snow cover product, 2001–2015. Remote Sensing, v. 9(10), 1045.
Thakur, A., Sharma, A. and Thakural, L.N., 2023. Assessment of Snow Cover Changes Over the Tons River Basin During Last Two Decades (2000–2019). In Climate Change and Environmental Impacts: Past, Present and Future Perspective, p. 287-294, Cham: Springer International Publishing.
Thaler, E.A., Crumley, R.L. and Bennett, K.E., 2023. Estimating snow cover from high-resolution satellite imagery by thresholding blue wavelengths. Remote Sensing of Environment, v. 285, 113403.
Tavakoli Ghazi Jahani, M., Raoof, M., Rasoulzadeh, A. and Mirzayi, S., 2018. Evaluation of Effect of Land Use Change on Flood Hydrograph and Peak of Flow in Atashgah Basin of Ardabil. Iranian Journal of Rainwater Catchment Systems, v. 5(4), p. 59-71.
Towfiqul Islam, A.R.M., Rahman, M.S., Khatun, R. and Hu, Z., 2020. Spatiotemporal trends in the frequency of daily rainfall in Bangladesh during 1975–2017. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, v. 141, p. 869-887.
Vehviläinen, B. and Lohvansuu, J., 1991. The effects of climate change on discharges and snow cover in Finland. Hydrological Sciences Journal, v. 36(2), p. 109-121.
Vidot, J., Bellec, B., Dumont, M. and Brunel, P., 2017. A daytime VIIRS RGB pseudo composite for snow detection. Remote Sensing of Environment, v. 196, p. 134-139.
Wang, R., Yao, Z., Liu, Z., Wu, S., Jiang, L. and Wang, L., 2015. Snow cover variability and snowmelt in a high-altitude ungauged catchment. Hydrological Processes, v. 29(12), p. 2672-2684. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.10472
Xia, M., Liu, W.A., Shi, B., Weng, L. and Liu, J., 2019. Cloud/snow recognition for multispectral satellite imagery based on a multidimensional deep residual network. International Journal of Remote Sensing, v. 40(1), p. 156-170.
Yang, D., Robinson, D., Zhao, Y., Estilow, T. and Ye, B., 2003. Streamflow response to seasonal snow cover extent changes in large Siberian watersheds, Journal of Geophysical Research, v. 108(D18), p. 1-14.
Zhang, R., Xu, Z., Zuo, D. and Ban, C., 2020. Hydro-meteorological trends in the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin and possible associations with large-scale circulation. Water, v. 12(1), 344,     DOI: 10.3390/w17030344.
 
 
 
Researches in Earth Sciences
Volume 16, Special Issue - Serial Number 64
Special Issue
December 2025
Pages 18-30

Files

Share

How to cite

Statistics