Modeling the Precipitation trend in the West Asia region under climate change

Document Type : علمی -پژوهشی

Authors

1 Associate Professor, Faculty of Earth Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University

2 M.Sc in Climatology, Faculty of Earth Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University

3 Ph.D Student, Faculty of Earth Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University

10.29252/esrj.9.3.68

Abstract

Over the past decades, global warming has undergone significant changes in weather and climate cycles, such as increased water vapor in the atmosphere, increased Precipitation and reduced Precipitation. This research was designed with the aim of modeling Precipitation in the region of West Asia under the influence of climate change. For this purpose, the Precipitation data of the West Asia region for the period 1961-2015 and 2016-2045 was downloaded under the A1B scenario of the HADCM3 model from the Canadian Climate Change Center (CCCSN). In the next step, using the R2 and RMSE statistics, the accuracy of the model was evaluated and the modeling results were of great accuracy. The slope of precipitation, using the sen's method, showed that in January, February, July and August, precipitation would increase and decrease in other months of the year. The Precipitation season with the Man-Kendall method also shows that the prevailing trend is decreasing throughout the year, and the incremental precipitation will only be related to precipitation and 24-hour Precipitation. Also, the results of this study showed that Precipitation in the Mediterranean and Sudanese systems is increasing, and this increase will not have a good prospect for the aquatic environment of the region, as 1 - areas with increasing trend during the warm year will evaporate the Precipitation received from the surface and An increase in precipitation in the cold season also causes flooding of the rainforest.

Keywords

References

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Researches in Earth Sciences
Volume 9, Issue 3 - Serial Number 35
September 2018
Pages 68-80

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