The impact of climate change on Groundwater resources using neural network NARX in Ramhormoz

Document Type : مروری

Authors

1 Academic member of RS and GIS Center, Earth Sciences Faculty,Shahid Beheshti University.

2 M.Sc in Hydro Geology, Islamic Azad University, North Tehran Branch

Abstract

Climate change impacts in recent years have resulted in significant changes in the availability of freshwater all over the world due to changes in precipitation and temperature. In this paper, the effect of climate change on the groundwater resources in Ramhormoz plain was studied. The water supply in agriculture, industrial and domestic sectors in this region is highly depend on groundwater, Therefore it is important to project future changes in groundwater level particularly for water resources management. In order to assess the climate change effects on the groundwater level, the output of one of the General Circulation Models (GCM) was used. Due to low resolution of GCM outputs, the LARS-WG model was utilized for downscaling daily temperature and rainfall data. The downscaled data were used to determine future recharge and discharge of the aquifer and to simulate variations in groundwater levels. Then dynaimc model was developed using neural network in MATLAB. The results of climate change impacts on groundwater assessment in the study region showed a decreasing trend of water level of the aquifer. The management strategies should be examined in order to mitigate the climate change impacts on groundwater resources in this region. The resultes of study also indicated that then will be mone decrease under the A2 Scenario.

Keywords


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