Forecasting of aerosols in Southwest Asia based on SSP scenarios of CMIP 6 models

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Associate professor of climatology shahid Beheshti University

2 Shahid Beheshti University The Faculty of Earth Sciences Tehran,Iran

10.48308/esrj.2023.104050

Abstract

One of the effective events of climate change is aerosols. Investigating the effects of climate change on Southwest Asia's aerosols is very important as one of the most important aerosol centers in the world. The aim of this research is to investigate the effects of climate change and predicting in Southwest Asia using the output of the GFDL-ESM4 model from the set of CMIP6 models under the optimistic scenario (SSP1.2.6) during the near future period (2021-2060).
The research method was first used for the anomaly of aerosols from a historical period of 40 years (1975-2014). Then, CMIP6 models, GFDL-ESM4 model were used to investigate the trend of air conditioners until the end of this century. Next, the optimistic scenario (SSP1-2.6) was used for the forecasting period of the near future (2021-2060). The results showed that the maximum amount of aerosol is in summer and spring and its minimum is in autumn and winter. In the winter season of the Arabian Peninsula, especially the eastern regions, in the spring season in the east of the Arabian Peninsula, in the summer season in the southeast of the Arabian Peninsula and in the southeast of Iran, and in the autumn season in the northern half of Arabian and in the east of Iran, they have the highest frequency of aerosol. According to the optimistic scenario, summer and spring seasons have the highest amount of aerosol.

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