Designing and analysis about annalo-graph of floods over Qom city during recent millenary

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

Designing and analysis about annalo-graph of floods over Qom city during recent millenary

Abstract

Introduction
Today, flood statistics in the provinces of Tehran, Mazandaran, Isfahan, East Azerbaijan, West Azerbaijan, and Qom are worrying. Meanwhile, the arid nature of central Iran and the high return periods of great floods are two factors that cause the risk of this disaster not to be taken seriously.
 
Materials and Methods
Most of the research conducted by statistical and synoptic methods on flood in Iran is based on water volume data prepared from hydrometric stations based on their setting up history. Today, flood research whose statistical range includes historical periods is empty. Therefore, the necessity of current research is justified for investigating floods in the crowded and pilgrimage city of Qom. To do this, data on the daily water volume of the nearest upstream hydrometric station of Qom city (Shadabad station) was prepared from 1948 to 1400 solar years. Floods were determined by calculating the monthly and long-term mean (73 years) of water volume in cubic meters per second.  Then, the largest flood in each year was defined as the marked flood of that year. Then, based on historical documents, floods with a specific occurrence date were extracted from 1327 to the past, i.e. up to 283 AH (1043 years’ interval). Using criteria such as bridge span area and water effect, the qualitative characteristics of historical floods were converted to small amounts of water volume. To achieve the time of flood concentration during the studied period, the daily precipitation statistics of eleven atmospheric data stations in and around the Ghomrood catchment area were prepared. The concentration-time of marked floods was calculated by matching the peak date of each rainfall and the peak date of the resulting flood. They achieved two series of water volume values, including floods based on station data and floods based on historical data, making it possible to design and analyze the floods annualo-graph of Qom city during the last millennium with the same volume unit and based on the year of occurrence.
 
Results and Discussion
The first results indicated that 66 cases of marked floods occurred over one thousand and 43 years. Seasonal and monthly segregation of floods showed that the highest seasonal frequency of floods was related to spring and the highest monthly frequency of floods was related to April and May, respectively. Qom City flood volume was reduced after the dam of Panzde-Khordad was dewatered in 1995 but according to the warm and dry climate of the Qomrood catchment, the ratio of annual water volume changes in the period after dam dewatering has remained high. Meanwhile, the high volume of floods in 2009 and 2019 alone indicates the danger of flooding in Qom City despite this reservoir dam. This risk over the coming decades with the irreversible filling of the dam reservoir of rock and mud could become as serious as it was before 1995.
 
Conclusion
The rivers of arid and semi-arid regions of Iran are amazing. This surprise is in terms of the volume of the flood and changes with the construction of reservoir dams. After the dam of Panzde-Khordad was dewatered, the volume of floodwaters entering the city of Qom in the bed of Qomrood was reduced, but factors such as the instability of upstream sub-basins of the dam have caused the city to become insecure every spring with the occurrence of massive floods and transferring sediments to dam reservoir. This insecurity based on flood data and historical documents in the distant past, has been in place for years before 1995, and the people's perception of the construction of the dam of Panzde-Khordad has taken people and government to occupy more of the riverbed in recent decades. Unfortunately, this occupation has been and it is carried out with justifications such as temporary and multi-purpose use of the river bed, such as what is seen in front of the holy shrine in the bed of Qomrood.

Keywords

Main Subjects

References

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