Researches in Earth Sciences

Researches in Earth Sciences

Redefining the geopolitics of the south Caucasus: towards a new regional security orde

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
sirous ahmadi
hojat mahkoi
amir gandomkar
Department of Geography, Na.C., Islamic Azad University, Najafabad, Iran
10.48308/esrj.2026.107331
Abstract
Introduction
The South Caucasus, as the connecting link between Europe, Asia, and the Middle East, is considered one of the most sensitive and strategically important geopolitical regions in the world. With its unique geographical position, rich energy resources (particularly Azerbaijan’s natural gas), vital transportation corridors, and ethnic-religious diversity, the region has always been a focal point for the convergence and competition of great powers and regional actors. The South Caucasus has long been exposed to dynamic interactions of power and influence, further complicated by a complex history of shifting alliances and territorial disputes. At a time when the world is witnessing a period of geopolitical reconfiguration triggered by the Russia-Ukraine conflict and intensified global competition for power, the repercussions of these changes are resonating strongly in the South Caucasus. This article examines the complex landscape of the South Caucasus, analyzing its evolving geopolitical dynamics and the potential emergence of a new security order. Traditionally, the region has been under significant Russian influence, which Moscow has regarded as part of its "sphere of privileged interests." However, Russia’s regional dominance has faced serious challenges, primarily due to the consequences of its war in Ukraine and domestic economic difficulties. This shift in the global geopolitical landscape has created opportunities for other external actors to fill the vacuum left by Russia’s declining influence. Meanwhile, the three South Caucasus countries — Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia — have strategically positioned themselves to capitalize on these changing dynamics, safeguard their national interests, and enhance their independence. Recent developments in regional politics signal a significant transition toward a new security order. Therefore, examining this ongoing transformation and its potential implications for the future of the South Caucasus is essential. Accordingly, the present study seeks to shed light on this ongoing transition by exploring the roots of the Russian-dominated security order, its subsequent decline, and the possible emergence of a new security framework in the South Caucasus, while also assessing its implications. A deeper examination of the intricate geopolitical changes in the South Caucasus provides a comprehensive understanding of the emerging security order, along with the opportunities and challenges it presents for the countries and actors involved. While Russia seeks to regain its influence over its former republics, new actors such as Turkey and Iran have quickly entered the arena. Initially struggling to define their positions, they were later followed — albeit gradually and cautiously — by more distant actors such as the United States and the European Union, primarily for economic reasons. These dynamics highlight the growing importance of the region in international politics. For instance, the United States, through its involvement and support for the Zangezur Corridor, has defined the South Caucasus as a region of vital interest.
Materials and Methods
The present research is an applied study employing a futures studies approach. The main method used is the Quantitative Delphi Technique conducted over three successive rounds, complemented by morphological scenario planning and cross-impact analysis. In the first stage, a systematic literature review and semi-structured interviews with eight initial experts identified 25 key factors. A Delphi panel was then formed consisting of 32 carefully selected experts (18 university professors and researchers, 11 senior political-security analysts, 3 former diplomats and ambassadors). The selection criterion was a minimum of 10 years of relevant experience and in-depth familiarity with the Caucasus region. In the first through third rounds, structured questionnaires were administered, consisting of two sections: a five-point Likert scale to measure the importance of factors and a 0–100 percent probability scale to assess the likelihood of scenarios. After each round, statistical feedback (including means, standard deviations, and coefficients of variation) was provided to the experts, and the questionnaire was revised accordingly. Consensus was evaluated using a coefficient of variation (CV) ≤ 0.5 and the non-parametric Kruskal-Wallis test (p < 0.05). Finally, by integrating the Delphi results with cross-impact analysis of the factors, four probable scenarios were developed for the horizon of 2035. Instrument reliability was confirmed using Cronbach’s alpha (above 0.85), and content validity was verified through expert judgment. This mixed-method approach provides suitable validity and generalizability for security futures studies.
Results and Discussion
The results of the quantitative Delphi method indicated strong consensus on 18 out of the 25 initial factors. The relationship between Azerbaijan and Armenia emerged as the most central variable, with a statistically significant difference (p < 0.05). This finding suggests that the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict remains the “mother risk” of the region. The rise of the Turkey-Azerbaijan axis and the critical importance of transportation corridors indicate a shift of power from the north to the southwest of the region. The weakening of Russia (ranked 4th) enjoys relative consensus, although some experts pointed to Moscow’s limited capacity for a comeback. The dominant scenario — Fragile Multilateral Balance — characterized by the relative dominance of Turkey and Azerbaijan, limited Russian presence, a more marginal role for Iran, and Western economic engagement, is the most probable future. This scenario is fragile because it heavily depends on the stability of Baku-Yerevan relations and effective corridor management. The regional cooperation scenario, although desirable for all actors (especially Iran), has only a 27.3% probability. The high standard deviation (15.8) reflects serious expert skepticism. Its realization requires the establishment of practical confidence-building mechanisms, such as joint management of the Zangezur Corridor, effective 3+3 dialogue, and multilateral security agreements. Experts emphasized that without resolving the Armenia-Azerbaijan issue, this scenario would remain largely unattainable. The polarization scenario carries a 16. 8% probability but involves very high risk. In this case, Russia-West and Iran-Turkey rivalries would turn the region into an arena for proxy conflicts. Experts warned that escalation of the Ukraine war or Iran-Israel/Western tensions could activate this scenario. The disorder scenario is the least probable (only 7.3%), yet it is the most destructive. In this scenario, the continuation of frozen conflicts, severe weakness of regional institutions, and unregulated competition among actors would lead to chronic instability, increased forced migration, economic collapse in some areas, and the complete marginalization of several actors. This situation could transform the South Caucasus into a gray, insecure zone lacking effective governance, with negative consequences extending far beyond the region’s borders. The strongest barrier remains the continuation of territorial and ethnic conflicts, which are rooted in history, identity, and geography. This structural factor challenges any attempt to build an indigenous security architecture. Great power competition, as the second barrier, keeps the region in a state of securitization. In contrast, confidence-building mechanisms were identified as the strongest facilitator. Experts stressed the need to move from zero-sum approaches to win-win games. Diversification of corridors can also reduce dependencies and create grounds for cooperation. Overall, the findings indicate that the South Caucasus is undergoing a structural geopolitical transition from a Russian-dominated unipolar order toward a fragile multipolar one. This transition is neither inevitable nor linear; rather, it will largely depend on the strategic choices of the actors over the next 5–7 years. Theoretically, the results align closely with structural realism and the Copenhagen School of Regional Security. The
region remains in the stage of securitization, and desecuritization requires a discursive shift and the creation of a shared security identity.
Conclusion
The South Caucasus, as one of the most sensitive geopolitical regions in the world, is experiencing a profound structural transition. Utilizing the Quantitative Delphi Method and scenario planning techniques, and with the participation of 32 distinguished experts, the present study identified the key factors shaping the future security order of the region and outlined probable scenarios up to the 2035 horizon. The most significant finding is the prominence of Azerbaijan-Armenia relations as the most central key factor (mean = 4.78). This variable not only influences other factors but also acts as the focal point of developments. Following this are the role of the Turkey-Azerbaijan axis, the status of transportation corridors (especially Zangezur and the Middle Corridor), and the relative decline of Russian presence. This pattern confirms that conflict geography, energy, and corridors remain the three main pillars of South Caucasus geopolitics. Among the four scenarios developed, the Fragile Multilateral Balance scenario, with nearly 49% probability, is considered the most likely future. In this scenario, Turkey and Azerbaijan will gain relative economic and military dominance, Russia will maintain a limited but intelligent presence, Iran will play a more marginal role, and the West will engage primarily through economic tools and energy. The fragility of this scenario makes it unstable, as even minor border tensions or disruptions in the corridors could push it toward polarization or disorder. Although the indigenous regional cooperation scenario is the most desirable from a normative perspective (27% probability), its realization demands strong political will and practical confidence-building mechanisms due to deep historical mistrust, geopolitical rivalries, and weak regional institutions. The two negative scenarios (polarization and disorder), despite lower probabilities, carry extremely high destructive potential and must not be overlooked by policymakers. Theoretically, the findings are largely consistent with structural realism and the Copenhagen School’s Regional Security Theory. The region is still in the stage of securitization, and moving toward desecuritization requires shifting from zero-sum competition to win-win cooperation. Moreover, the study highlights the growing importance of non-traditional factors such as corridors and energy diplomacy in shaping new security orders, demonstrating that in today’s world, economic geography is as significant as political geography.
Keywords
South Caucasus
Geopolitics
Regional order
Regional actors
Extra-Regional actors
Subjects
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