چالش‌های ژئوپولیتیکی موثر بر سیاست خارجی ایران در منطقه قفقاز جنوبی

Introduction

The South Caucasus, which includes Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia, is a region of significant geopolitical and geoeconomic importance. Strategically positioned at the crossroads of Europe, Asia, and the Middle East, it serves as a pivotal area of influence for Iran. The historical, cultural, and geographical ties between Iran and the South Caucasus further emphasize its critical nature in Tehran’s foreign policy considerations. The area's role as an energy corridor, especially through significant pipelines like the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC), enhances its relevance in discussions surrounding global energy security. However, the region's complex ethnic and political landscape brings about significant challenges related to regional stability.

For decades, Iran has encountered difficulties in asserting a proactive stance in the South Caucasus, often resorting to reactive or passive policies. This challenge arises from several geopolitical factors that hinder Iran's ability to effectively implement its foreign policy in the area. Key issues include intra-regional conflicts, such as the protracted Nagorno-Karabakh dispute, the dominant roles played by regional powers like Turkey and Russia, and the increasing involvement of external actors, including the United States, the European Union, and China. Moreover, socio-economic issues, territorial disputes, and geographical barriers exacerbate Iran's struggles in the region. Such dynamics foster a competitive environment wherein Iran's strategic interests—such as energy security, border stability, and regional influence—are frequently compromised by more assertive players. This study aims to identify and assess the geopolitical challenges that shape Iran's foreign policy in the South Caucasus, focusing on the roles of regional and extra-regional powers, the implications of socio-economic and security transformations, and the shortcomings of Iran’s current policy approach.

Materials and Methods

To explore the topic effectively, the study adopted a research method centered around collecting and statistically analyzing the opinions of experts regarding the challenges facing Iran. Given the complexities involved, the Delphi method was deemed most suitable for this research. This subjective forecasting technique is particularly effective for gathering useful data in uncertain contexts, such as the geopolitical landscape of the South Caucasus, and is particularly validated for predicting challenges—one of the core objectives of this study.

The Delphi process is an iterative and systematic procedure wherein questions are presented to a panel of experts in successive rounds to achieve a reliable group consensus. In contrast to individual-based forecasting methods like surveys, Delphi focuses on group dynamics, allowing for a richer interaction that leads to more powerful conclusions than the sum of individual perspectives. The selected expert panel consisted of specialists in geopolitics and South Caucasus affairs, who, due to their experience and positions, were expected to provide valuable insights relevant to this study.

Participants were contacted, and the response rate was highly satisfactory. Although other groups could have been involved, a selection of 15 experts was made to kickstart this exploratory study; this initial pool can be expanded in future research phases depending on funding and available resources. dropout rate during the process was a mere 7%, which is substantially lower than typical rates in published studies (usually ranging from 20% to 30%), minimizing the risk of distortion in final results.

Results and Discussion

The findings illustrate that Iran's foreign policy in the South Caucasus is significantly constrained by three primary categories of geopolitical challenges: intra-regional dynamics, the influence of regional powers, and interventions from external actors. Intra-regional factors include persistent ethnic and territorial conflicts, particularly the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, which has historically destabilized the region and complicated Iran's diplomatic relations. These conflicts contribute to a fragmented geopolitical landscape, where Iran's alignment with one state risks complicating ties with others, thereby limiting its capacity to implement a well-balanced regional strategy.

Moreover, the influence of regional powers—particularly Turkey and Russia—constitutes a significant obstacle to Iran's aspirations. Turkey has solidified its position through cultural ties with Azerbaijan, making extensive economic investments and engaging in military cooperation, particularly evident during the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. On the other hand, Russia, utilizing its historical dominance and maintaining military bases in the region, retains a formidable grip over security and economic dynamics.

Delphi analysis revealed that 78% of experts highlighted the influence of regional powers as the foremost challenge, followed by intra-regional conflicts (65%) and extra-regional interventions (52%). External actors, including the United States, the European Union, and China, have expanded their presence in the South Caucasus through energy projects, security partnerships, and infrastructure investments—most notably, China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Such interventions frequently marginalize Iran, which faces limitations due to international sanctions and domestic political constraints.

Conclusion

The results of this research indicate that the upcoming challenges in Iran's relations with the countries of the South Caucasus region have a geopolitical nature and are primarily due to the multiplicity and diversity of issues and influential actors in the region, along with the interactions and interconnections of complex geopolitical matters that play a significant and effective role in the ambiguity and passivity of the foreign policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the region.

Keywords: Geopolitics, South Caucasus, Iran, Foreign Policy, Regional Powers,

Introduction

The South Caucasus, which includes Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia, is a region of significant geopolitical and geoeconomic importance. Strategically positioned at the crossroads of Europe, Asia, and the Middle East, it serves as a pivotal area of influence for Iran. The historical, cultural, and geographical ties between Iran and the South Caucasus further emphasize its critical nature in Tehran’s foreign policy considerations. The area's role as an energy corridor, especially through significant pipelines like the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC), enhances its relevance in discussions surrounding global energy security. However, the region's complex ethnic and political landscape brings about significant challenges related to regional stability.

For decades, Iran has encountered difficulties in asserting a proactive stance in the South Caucasus, often resorting to reactive or passive policies. This challenge arises from several geopolitical factors that hinder Iran's ability to effectively implement its foreign policy in the area. Key issues include intra-regional conflicts, such as the protracted Nagorno-Karabakh dispute, the dominant roles played by regional powers like Turkey and Russia, and the increasing involvement of external actors, including the United States, the European Union, and China. Moreover, socio-economic issues, territorial disputes, and geographical barriers exacerbate Iran's struggles in the region. Such dynamics foster a competitive environment wherein Iran's strategic interests—such as energy security, border stability, and regional influence—are frequently compromised by more assertive players. This study aims to identify and assess the geopolitical challenges that shape Iran's foreign policy in the South Caucasus, focusing on the roles of regional and extra-regional powers, the implications of socio-economic and security transformations, and the shortcomings of Iran’s current policy approach.

Materials and Methods

To explore the topic effectively, the study adopted a research method centered around collecting and statistically analyzing the opinions of experts regarding the challenges facing Iran. Given the complexities involved, the Delphi method was deemed most suitable for this research. This subjective forecasting technique is particularly effective for gathering useful data in uncertain contexts, such as the geopolitical landscape of the South Caucasus, and is particularly validated for predicting challenges—one of the core objectives of this study.

The Delphi process is an iterative and systematic procedure wherein questions are presented to a panel of experts in successive rounds to achieve a reliable group consensus. In contrast to individual-based forecasting methods like surveys, Delphi focuses on group dynamics, allowing for a richer interaction that leads to more powerful conclusions than the sum of individual perspectives. The selected expert panel consisted of specialists in geopolitics and South Caucasus affairs, who, due to their experience and positions, were expected to provide valuable insights relevant to this study.

Participants were contacted, and the response rate was highly satisfactory. Although other groups could have been involved, a selection of 15 experts was made to kickstart this exploratory study; this initial pool can be expanded in future research phases depending on funding and available resources. dropout rate during the process was a mere 7%, which is substantially lower than typical rates in published studies (usually ranging from 20% to 30%), minimizing the risk of distortion in final results.

Results and Discussion

The findings illustrate that Iran's foreign policy in the South Caucasus is significantly constrained by three primary categories of geopolitical challenges: intra-regional dynamics, the influence of regional powers, and interventions from external actors. Intra-regional factors include persistent ethnic and territorial conflicts, particularly the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, which has historically destabilized the region and complicated Iran's diplomatic relations. These conflicts contribute to a fragmented geopolitical landscape, where Iran's alignment with one state risks complicating ties with others, thereby limiting its capacity to implement a well-balanced regional strategy.

Moreover, the influence of regional powers—particularly Turkey and Russia—constitutes a significant obstacle to Iran's aspirations. Turkey has solidified its position through cultural ties with Azerbaijan, making extensive economic investments and engaging in military cooperation, particularly evident during the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. On the other hand, Russia, utilizing its historical dominance and maintaining military bases in the region, retains a formidable grip over security and economic dynamics.

Delphi analysis revealed that 78% of experts highlighted the influence of regional powers as the foremost challenge, followed by intra-regional conflicts (65%) and extra-regional interventions (52%). External actors, including the United States, the European Union, and China, have expanded their presence in the South Caucasus through energy projects, security partnerships, and infrastructure investments—most notably, China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Such interventions frequently marginalize Iran, which faces limitations due to international sanctions and domestic political constraints.

Conclusion

The results of this research indicate that the upcoming challenges in Iran's relations with the countries of the South Caucasus region have a geopolitical nature and are primarily due to the multiplicity and diversity of issues and influential actors in the region, along with the interactions and interconnections of complex geopolitical matters that play a significant and effective role in the ambiguity and passivity of the foreign policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the region.

Keywords: Geopolitics, South Caucasus, Iran, Foreign Policy, Regional Powers, ی