عنوان مقاله [English]
Predicting the impact of earthquakes on buildings and structures requires understanding the dynamics of their behavior. The procedures adopted for this purpose are quite complex and tedious in terms of cost, time and execution, especially when the studies are concerned with spatial domains rather than individual buildings. Assessing seismic vulnerability using available resources is of great importance. Vulnerability index and capacity spectrum-based methods used to assess expected physical damage in dwellings have been reviewed and their main advantages and disadvantages have been analyzed and discussed. Then a method based on vulnerability index is used to assess the expected damage in Ardabil. Risk analysis for seismic scenarios defined by macroseismic intensities of V, V-VI, VI, VI-VII and VII has been performed to design seismic emergency plans. According to the country's seismic regulations, the peak of the initial acceleration of the earth for a 475-year return period is 0.04g, which is related to the intensity of VII. Therefore, while quantifying physical damage, its impact on the population and other quantities such as debris, the number of homeless and the economic cost have been investigated. In spite of the low-to-moderate seismic hazard in Ardabil, the results show that the risk is high, due to the high exposure and vulnerability of the built environment.