طراحی و تحلیل رخدادنگار سیلاب‌های شهر قم در هزاره اخیر

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

گروه جغرافیای طبیعی، دانشکده علوم زمین، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران

چکیده

مقدمه
امروز آمار سیل در شهرهایی از استان های تهران، مازندران، اصفهان، آذربایجان شرقی، آذربایجان غربی و نیز قم نگران‌کننده است. در این میان، طبیعت خشک ایران مرکزی و بلندی دوره‌های بازگشت سیل‌های بزرگ در آن، دو عاملی هستند که سبب می‌شوند خطر این بلیه چندان جدی گرفته نشود.
مواد و روش­ها
بیشتر پژوهش‌هایی که با روش‌های آماری و همدید روی سیل در ایران انجام شده است، بر پایه داده‌های حجم آبی است که از ایستگاه‌های آبسنجی بر حسب پیشینه راه‌اندازی آنها، تهیه شده است. امروزه جای پژوهش‌های سیل که بازه آماری آنها دوره‌های تاریخی را هم دربرگیرد خالی است. از این رو ضرورت تحقیق کنونی برای بررسی سیلاب‌ها در شهر شلوغ و زیارتی قم توجیه می‌شود. برای انجام این مهم، داده‌های مقادیر روزانه حجم آب نزدیک‌ترین ایستگاه آبسنجی بالادست شهر قم (ایستگاه شادآباد) از سال 1327 تا سال 1400 خورشیدی تهیه شد. با محاسبه میانگین ماهانه و بلندمدت (73 ساله) حجم آب بر حسب متر مکعب بر ثانیه، سیلاب‌های رخداده مشخص شدند. سپس، بزرگ‌ترین سیلاب در هر سال، سیلاب نشاندار آن سال تعریف شد. آنگاه بر پایه اسناد تاریخی، سیلاب‌های دارای تاریخ رخداد مشخص در بازه سال 1327 به سمت گذشته یعنی تا سال 283 هجری خورشیدی (بازه ای 1043 ساله) استخراج شدند. با استفاده معیارهایی مانند مساحت دهانه پل و داغاب، مشخصات کیفی سیل­های تاریخی به مقادیر کمی حجم آب تبدیل شد. با هدف دستیابی به زمان تمرکز سیلاب­ها طی بازه مورد بررسی، آمار بارش روزانه یازده ایستگاه داده سنجی جوی درون و پیرامون حوضه آبریز قمرود تهیه شد. با تطبیق تاریخ اوج مربوط به جمع مقادیر روزانه هر بارش و تاریخ بده اوج سیلاب ناشی از آن؛ زمان تمرکز سیلاب‌های نشاندار بر حسب روز محاسبه شد. دستیابی به دو سری مقادیر حجم آب شامل سیل‌های بر پایه داده­های ایستگاهی و سیل‌های بر پایه داده‌های تاریخی، امکان طراحی و تحلیل رخدادنگار سیل‌های شهر قم را طی هزاره اخیر با واحد حجم یکسان و بر پایه سال وقوع فراهم کرد.
نتایج و بحث
نخستین نتایج گویای رخداد 66 مورد سیل نشاندار طی بازه آماری یک هزار و چهل و سه ساله بود. تفکیک فصلی و ماهانه سیل­ها نشان داد که بالاترین فراوانی فصلی سیل­ها مربوط به فصل بهار و بالاترین فراوانی ماهانه سیل­ها به ترتیب مربوط به فروردین و اردیبهشت است. 
حجم سیلاب‌های شهر قم پس از آبگیری سد پانزده خرداد در سال 1374 آشکارا کاهش یافته است ولی متناسب با سرشت گرم و خشک آب و هوای حوضه آبریز قمرود، نسبت تغییرات سالانه حجم آب در دوره پس از آبگیری سد همچنان بالا مانده است. در این میان، حجم بالای سیلاب سال­های 1388 و 1398 به تنهایی، گویای وجود خطر فراگیری شهر قم توسط سیلاب با وجود این سد مخزنی است. این خطر طی دهه‌های آینده با پر شدن بی‌بازگشت مخزن سد از سنگ و گل و لای می‌تواند به طور جدی مانند دوره پیش از سال 1374 شود و با توجه به افزایش میزان بده رود با افزایش دوره بازگشت و سرشت خشک و نیمه‌خشک آب‌وهوای حوضه قمرود، سیل­های این رودخانه را می‌توان غافل‌گیرکننده دانست.
نتیجه­گیری
رودخانه‌های مناطق خشک و نیمه‌خشک ایران غافل‌گیرکننده هستند. این غافل‌گیری به لحاظ تغییرات حجم سیلاب است و با ساختن سدهای مخزنی تغییر می‌کند. پس از آبگیری سد پانزده خرداد، حجم سیلاب‎‌های ورودی به شهر قم در بستر قمرود، آشکارا کاهش یافت ولی عواملی از جمله ناپایداری زیرحوضه‌های بالادست سد سبب شده است در هر فصل بهار با رخ دادن سیلاب‎‌های مهیب و انتقال رسوبات به مخزن سد؛ شهر قم به سمت ناایمنی برود. این ناایمنی بر اساس آمار سیل و اسناد تاریخی در گذشته‌های دور، طی سال‌های پیش از 1374 برقرار بوده است و فضای روانی ساخت سد پانزده خرداد، مردم و دولت را در ده­های اخیر به سمت اشغال بیشتر بستر رود برده است. متاسفانه این اشغال با توجیهاتی مانند استفاده‌های موقت و چندمنظوره از بستر رود مانند آنچه که جلو حرم مطهر در بستر قمرود دیده می شود؛ انجام گرفته و می­گیرد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Designing and analysis about annalo-graph of floods over Qom city during recent millenary

نویسندگان [English]

  • Gholamreza Barati
  • reza moghadam fardouei
Designing and analysis about annalo-graph of floods over Qom city during recent millenary
چکیده [English]

Introduction
Today, flood statistics in the provinces of Tehran, Mazandaran, Isfahan, East Azerbaijan, West Azerbaijan, and Qom are worrying. Meanwhile, the arid nature of central Iran and the high return periods of great floods are two factors that cause the risk of this disaster not to be taken seriously.
 
Materials and Methods
Most of the research conducted by statistical and synoptic methods on flood in Iran is based on water volume data prepared from hydrometric stations based on their setting up history. Today, flood research whose statistical range includes historical periods is empty. Therefore, the necessity of current research is justified for investigating floods in the crowded and pilgrimage city of Qom. To do this, data on the daily water volume of the nearest upstream hydrometric station of Qom city (Shadabad station) was prepared from 1948 to 1400 solar years. Floods were determined by calculating the monthly and long-term mean (73 years) of water volume in cubic meters per second.  Then, the largest flood in each year was defined as the marked flood of that year. Then, based on historical documents, floods with a specific occurrence date were extracted from 1327 to the past, i.e. up to 283 AH (1043 years’ interval). Using criteria such as bridge span area and water effect, the qualitative characteristics of historical floods were converted to small amounts of water volume. To achieve the time of flood concentration during the studied period, the daily precipitation statistics of eleven atmospheric data stations in and around the Ghomrood catchment area were prepared. The concentration-time of marked floods was calculated by matching the peak date of each rainfall and the peak date of the resulting flood. They achieved two series of water volume values, including floods based on station data and floods based on historical data, making it possible to design and analyze the floods annualo-graph of Qom city during the last millennium with the same volume unit and based on the year of occurrence.
 
Results and Discussion
The first results indicated that 66 cases of marked floods occurred over one thousand and 43 years. Seasonal and monthly segregation of floods showed that the highest seasonal frequency of floods was related to spring and the highest monthly frequency of floods was related to April and May, respectively. Qom City flood volume was reduced after the dam of Panzde-Khordad was dewatered in 1995 but according to the warm and dry climate of the Qomrood catchment, the ratio of annual water volume changes in the period after dam dewatering has remained high. Meanwhile, the high volume of floods in 2009 and 2019 alone indicates the danger of flooding in Qom City despite this reservoir dam. This risk over the coming decades with the irreversible filling of the dam reservoir of rock and mud could become as serious as it was before 1995.
 
Conclusion
The rivers of arid and semi-arid regions of Iran are amazing. This surprise is in terms of the volume of the flood and changes with the construction of reservoir dams. After the dam of Panzde-Khordad was dewatered, the volume of floodwaters entering the city of Qom in the bed of Qomrood was reduced, but factors such as the instability of upstream sub-basins of the dam have caused the city to become insecure every spring with the occurrence of massive floods and transferring sediments to dam reservoir. This insecurity based on flood data and historical documents in the distant past, has been in place for years before 1995, and the people's perception of the construction of the dam of Panzde-Khordad has taken people and government to occupy more of the riverbed in recent decades. Unfortunately, this occupation has been and it is carried out with justifications such as temporary and multi-purpose use of the river bed, such as what is seen in front of the holy shrine in the bed of Qomrood.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • flood annualo-graph
  • recent millenary
  • Qom

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