ارزیابی نگرش‌های جامعه نسبت به صنوبرکاری در اقلیم سرد: یک تحلیل مبتنی بر روش دلفی

Abstract

Introduction

The increasing demand for wood as a renewable material for construction, furniture, and various industrial applications has necessitated the exploration of sustainable tree cultivation practices. In many regions facing deforestation and environmental degradation, the development of alternative wood sources through agroforestry is gaining momentum. In cold-climate regions, such as Ardabil Province in northwest Iran, the cultivation of fast-growing species like poplar offers a promising opportunity. This study focuses on understanding community attitudes toward poplar tree planting in this cold-climate zone, employing a Delphi-based analytical framework to extract informed insights from experienced farmers. By capturing the opinions of stakeholders directly involved in poplar cultivation, the research seeks to evaluate the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats associated with wood farming practices, contributing to sustainable development and rural livelihoods.

Ardabil Province, characterized by its cold mountainous climate, diverse topography, and fertile soil, presents an ideal environment for cultivating poplar trees. The region experiences annual precipitation ranging from 250 to 600 millimeters and average temperatures fluctuating between 6 to 12 degrees Celsius. Despite these conducive conditions, poplar wood farming is mostly practiced on a small scale, often integrated with traditional farming systems along irrigation channels and orchard perimeters. Given the ecological and economic importance of wood cultivation, particularly in addressing issues of land degradation and poverty, there is a pressing need to assess how local communities perceive and engage with such agroforestry initiatives.

The use of the Delphi method in this research allows for a structured exploration of community perspectives, enabling consensus-building among experts and practitioners. By examining key demographic, economic, and technical factors influencing poplar tree farming, this study offers a comprehensive analysis of the viability and challenges of wood cultivation in cold climates. The research ultimately aims to provide policymakers and development agencies with empirical evidence to guide interventions that promote sustainable forestry, improve farmer livelihoods, and preserve ecological balance in the region.

Materials and Methods

The study population comprised 51 experienced poplar farmers from Ardabil Province, selected through purposive sampling to ensure representation of diverse farming experiences and operational scales. A structured questionnaire was developed, informed by prior studies and expert consultation, to gather detailed data on demographic variables, land ownership, main occupations, experience in poplar cultivation, and cultivation practices. The questionnaire addressed both qualitative and quantitative aspects of poplar farming, including seedling count, planting techniques, irrigation methods, and harvesting patterns. Variables such as household size, gender, education level, and use of tools were also captured to provide contextual background.

To assess community attitudes and extract strategic insights, the Delphi technique was employed, involving multiple rounds of feedback and consensus-building. In the first round, participants responded to open-ended questions related to the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) of poplar tree farming. In subsequent rounds, they reviewed and refined their responses based on the aggregated feedback from other participants. The iterative nature of the Delphi method ensured that diverse perspectives were considered, and areas of agreement or disagreement were clearly delineated.

Expert panels, consisting of forestry specialists, agricultural extension officers, and development planners, reviewed the questionnaire to validate its content and reliability. Statistical analysis of the responses included frequency distributions, averages, and qualitative coding for thematic interpretation. The data were analyzed using both descriptive and inferential techniques to identify patterns, correlations, and divergences in farmer perceptions. Through this methodological approach, the study achieved a nuanced understanding of the enabling and inhibiting factors affecting poplar wood cultivation in the cold-climate context of Ardabil.

Results and Discussion

The demographic analysis of respondents revealed an average age of 49.7 years, with most farmers having over two decades of experience in poplar cultivation. Education levels varied, with a significant proportion (52.93%) possessing a high school diploma or less, suggesting a moderate literacy level among participants. Despite this, farmers demonstrated extensive practical knowledge, particularly in land preparation and planting techniques. None of the respondents identified poplar farming as their primary occupation, highlighting its role as a supplementary income source.

The average landholding for poplar cultivation was 3.34 hectares, with seedling counts ranging widely from 200 to 175,000, reflecting significant heterogeneity in farm size and investment levels. Similarly, household sizes varied from 1 to 12, indicating differing capacities for labor mobilization. While the average spacing between trees was 1x1 meter, this is suboptimal for maximizing wood yield, suggesting a need for training in optimal planting configurations. Irrigation practices were predominantly based on flood irrigation, used by over 91% of farmers, and very few respondents were aware of the specific poplar species they cultivated, demonstrating gaps in technical knowledge.

The SWOT analysis provided rich insights into the systemic issues and potential interventions in poplar wood farming. Among the strengths identified, farmers emphasized the low input requirements of poplar plantations, including reduced labor and minimal use of machinery. Most relied only on basic tools such as water pumps, and irrigation was generally required once every 10 to 14 days. Additionally, poplar trees served multiple functions, including acting as windbreaks and orchard boundaries, enhancing their appeal in integrated farming systems. From an ecological perspective, poplar trees were recognized for their potential in phytoremediation, as they can absorb heavy metals like lead, cadmium, and nickel, contributing to environmental health.

Governmental support, particularly in the form of free sapling distribution, was noted as a facilitating factor. However, the quality of these seedlings was often subpar, with susceptibility to pests and diseases reducing their effectiveness. Another issue was the absence of comprehensive insurance coverage for poplar farms. None of the respondents had insured their plantations, pointing to a significant economic risk. Establishing government-subsidized insurance schemes and guaranteed purchase contracts could mitigate these vulnerabilities.

Weaknesses in the current system were also apparent. A major issue was the inconsistent use of fertilizers and pest control measures, stemming from limited knowledge and financial constraints. Farmers reported inadequate access to affordable and effective pesticides, particularly against common pests like aphids and scales. Additionally, a lack of pricing transparency in wood markets led to significant disparities in sales prices across regions, ranging from 55,000 to 110,000 Iranian Rials per kilogram. The absence of a standardized valuation system hindered profitability and discouraged new entrants.

Another critical weakness was the poor maintenance of plantations. Surveys indicated that 70% of plantations lacked soil improvement measures and 60% were not properly thinned, affecting tree health and growth rates. In some cases, irrigation intervals extended beyond optimal ranges, leading to water stress. These issues stemmed from insufficient advisory services and a lack of structured extension support. Enhanced farmer training, extension visits, and capacity-building programs were identified as essential to improving management practices.

Opportunities for enhancing poplar farming included expanding technical education, forming local and national associations of poplar growers, and improving linkages between research, education, and field implementation. Establishing demonstration farms and training centers could also facilitate knowledge transfer. Increasing awareness about the environmental benefits of poplar plantations could attract policy support and public interest, especially given their role in carbon sequestration and soil conservation.

From a market perspective, poplar wood offered a cost-effective alternative to traditional crops, especially in marginal lands. By diversifying income sources and reducing dependency on annual crops, poplar farming could enhance rural resilience. Improving nursery infrastructure to produce disease-resistant, climate-adapted seedlings would further boost productivity. Additionally, integrating modern irrigation systems, such as drip or sprinkler systems, could optimize water use and improve tree health.

Threats to the sustainability of poplar wood farming were also significant. Chief among these was water scarcity, a growing concern in many parts of Ardabil. As climate change exacerbates drought risks, reliance on traditional flood irrigation may become untenable. Without investments in water-efficient technologies and infrastructure, the viability of poplar plantations could be compromised. Other threats included land use pressures, as farmers prioritized more profitable crops, and the lack of long-term policy support for agroforestry.

Social challenges also emerged, particularly in the form of limited youth engagement in poplar farming. The aging farmer population and the low attractiveness of forestry as a career path indicated a potential labor gap in the future. Addressing this would require targeted incentives, youth training programs, and greater visibility of forestry's economic potential. Moreover, the lack of coordinated marketing channels limited farmers' ability to negotiate better prices or access distant markets.

Conclusion

The results of this study underscore the complex interplay of ecological, economic, and social factors shaping the attitudes and practices of poplar farmers in Ardabil Province. While poplar wood farming presents notable advantages in terms of low input requirements, ecological benefits, and supplementary income, significant challenges remain. These include inadequate technical knowledge, poor market infrastructure, water scarcity, and the absence of institutional support mechanisms such as insurance and standardized pricing.

To unlock the full potential of poplar plantations in cold-climate regions, a multi-pronged strategy is necessary. This includes improving seedling quality, investing in farmer education, and modernizing irrigation practices. Establishing transparent market systems and offering financial safeguards can enhance profitability and reduce risks. Furthermore, fostering community-based organizations and linking them with research and extension services will strengthen knowledge dissemination and innovation uptake.

Given the environmental adaptability of poplar trees and their role in agroforestry systems, promoting their cultivation can contribute significantly to sustainable land use and rural development. Policymakers and development agencies should consider poplar farming not merely as an economic activity, but as a holistic approach to environmental conservation, poverty reduction, and climate resilience. By addressing existing weaknesses and leveraging identified opportunities, Ardabil Province can serve as a model for sustainable wood farming in similar cold-climate regions.