سنجش سطوح و اولویت‌بندی آسیب‌پذیری سکونتگاه‌های روستایی در برابر زلزله با استفاده از منطق فازی در GIS (مطالعه موردی: استان فارس)

نوع مقاله : علمی -پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار مرکز مطالعات سنجش از دور و GIS، دانشکده علوم زمین، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی

2 استاد مرکز مطالعات سنجش از دور و GIS، دانشکده علوم زمین، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی

3 مربی مرکز مطالعات سنجش از دور و GIS، دانشکده علوم زمین، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی

4 کارشناس ارشد مرکز مطالعات سنجش از دور و GIS، دانشکده علوم زمین، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی و رئیس GIS ستاد پلیس راهنمایی و رانندگی

10.29252/esrj.9.4.181

چکیده

از مهم­­ترین بلایای طبیعی که نقش مهمی در آسیب­پذیری و تخریب سکونتگاه­های روستایی ایفا می­نماید، زلزله می­باشد. آسیب­پذیری دارای مفهومی پیچیده است به طوری که عوامل و متغیرهای مختلفی در آن دخالت دارد و استفاده از روش­های نوین موجب بهبود فرآیند سنجش سطوح آسیب­پذیری می­شود. هدف از ارائه پژوهش حاضر، سنجش سطوح و اولویت­بندی آسیب­پذیری سکونتگاه­های روستایی با به کارگیری عملگرهای مبتنی بر منطق فازی می­باشد. استان فارس که دارای گسل­های اصلی و فرعی متعددی بوده و در طول سالیان گذشته زلزله­های متعددی با قدرت تخریب بالا در آن به ­وقوع پیوسته و هم­چنین، سکونتگاه­های روستایی آن دارای تنوع آسیب­پذیری طبیعی و انسانی می­باشد، به عنوان منطقه­ی مطالعاتی انتخاب شده است. سکونتگاه­های روستایی از محیط­هایی به شمار می­رود که به دلیل ویژگی­های فیزیکی آن در مقایسه با سکونتگاه­های شهری در معرض آسیب­پذیری بیشتری می­باشد. در این پژوهش، جهت سنجش سطوح و اولویت­بندی آسیب­پذیری از عملگرهای فازی که شامل تلفیق چندمعیاره اهمیت معیارها و وزن­ رتبه­ها بوده و دو ویژگی مهم در نظرگرفتن متغیرهای کیفی (زبانی) و توجه به گروه­های مختلف ذینفع را نیز داشته و هم­چنین، به نتایج بهتری منجر شده، استفاده گردید. لذا با به کارگیری و تلفیق متغیرها و سناریوهای مختلف، مناطق با درجات بالای ریسک مشخص شد. سپس، سکونتگاه­های روستایی در معرض ریسک حاصل از سناریوی نسبتا بدبینانه آسیب­پذیری طبیعی انتخاب گردید. در نهایت، آسیب­پذیری انسانی این سکونتگاه­ها با به کارگیری سناریوی متعادل اولویت­بندی شد. نتایج حاصل در تمامی سناریوها نشان داد که بخش­های جنوب و غرب منطقه که دارای مقادیر بالای بیشینه جنبش افقی زمین (Peak Horizontal Acceleration)، سازندهای زمین­شناسی جدید و نزدیکی به گسل­های فعال زمین­شناسی بوده به عنوان مناطق با درجات بالای ریسک آسیب­پذیری طبیعی شناسایی شده و همواره زلزله­های متعدد با قدرت تخریب بالا در آن به وقوع می­پیوندد اما از منظر متغیرهای آسیب­پذیری انسانی مورد استفاده در این پژوهش در حد متوسط می­باشند.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Vulnerability assess of the levels and prioritization of rural settlements against earthquakes using Fuzzy Logic in GIS (case study: Fars Province)

نویسندگان [English]

  • ََAlireza shakiba 1
  • Ali akbar matkan 2
  • Babak mirbagheri 3
  • Yaghub seif 4
1 Associated Professor, Center for Remote Sensing Studies and GIS, Faculty of Earth Sciences, ShahidBeheshti University
2 Professor, Center for Remote Sensing Studies and GIS, Faculty of Earth Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University
3 Coach, Center for Remote Sensing Studies and GIS, Faculty of Earth Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University
4 MS.c in Remote Sensing and GIS, Center for Remote Sensing Studies and GIS, Faculty of Earth Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University
چکیده [English]

One of the natural disasters that plays a major role in the vulnerability and destruction of rural settlements is earthquake. Vulnerability has a complex concept so that involves various factors and variables and using modern methods could improve vulnerability assess of the levels. The objective of this study is to vulnerability assess the levels and prioritization of rural settlements with the use of operators based on Fuzzy Logic. The Fars province was selected as a case study because of exist many major and minor faults, during the years occured huge earthquakes and theirs rural settlements have a variety of natural and human vulnerability. Because of the physical characteristics, rural areas exposured to high vulnerability is compared with urban areas. In this study, for vulnerability assess the levels and prioritization was used fuzzy operators that including multi criteria aggregation criterion importance and orders weight and two important properties consider to qualitative (linguistic) variables and according to various interest groups and also led to better results. Therefore, by using and aggregating various variables and scenarios, areas with high degrees of risk identified. Then rural settlements exposure risk resulting from relatively pessimistic scenario of natural vulnerability was choiced. Eventually, the human vulnerability of settlements have been prioritized using a moderate scenario. The results in all scenarios showed that South and West areas with high values of Peak Horizontal Acceleration, new geological formations and proximity to active faults as areas with high degrees natural vulnerability of risk has been identified and always happening huge earthquakes but from the perspective of human vulnerability variables is moderate.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Fars Province
  • Firozabad
  • vulnerability
  • Rural settlements
  • Earthquake
  • Fuzzy logic
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