اثر احتمالی تغییر اقلیم بر عملکرد محصول گندم در استان تهران

نوع مقاله : علمی -پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشگاه شهید بهشتی

2 دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد شهرری

3 اداره کل هواشناسی استان تهران

چکیده

اثر تغییر اقلیم بر روی کشاورزی و امنیت غذائی  مردم یکی از مهم­ترین موضوعات مطرح در سطح جهان است. استان تهران با داشتن 60125 هکتار سطح زیرکشت گندم (سال زراعی 1389-1388) و عملکرد تولید 6/3795 تن در همین سال دارای بیشترین عملکرد تولید در بین استان­های کشور بوده است. هدف از این مطالعه ارزیابی اثر تغییر اقلیم بر عملکرد تولید محصول گندم در استان تهران است. داده­های هواشناسی 58 سال (2009-1951 میلادی) ایستگاه هواشناسی تهران (مهرآباد، ورامین، فرودگاه امام خمینی (ره)، دوشان تپه، اقدسیه) جهت انجام مطالعه انتخاب شد. پس از صحت سنجی مدل آماری ClimGen داده­های ایستگاه، داده­های اقلیمی سال­های2050–2020 میلادی وارد این مدل شد. نتایج داده­های اقلیمی به همراه متغیرهای خاکشناسی و کشاورزی مربوطه، براساس دو سناریوی تغییر اقلیمی 2A و B2 در دو حالت (1- افزایشCO2، 2- افزایش توأمCO2  و درجه حرارت) وارد مدل کشاورزی APSIM گردید. درسناریوهای مجموعه 2A و 2B ، با افزایش 2CO به تنهایی به ترتیب به میزان700 ppm و 525 ppm و بدون تغییر فرض نمودن نوسانات دما شاهد افزایش تولید به ترتیب به میزان 28% و 13% نسبت به سناریوکنترل هستیم. اما درسناریو بعدی با دخالت دادن افزایش دما به ترتیب به میزان4 و 2 درجه سانتی گراد میزان تولید نسبت به سناریوی کنترل به ترتیب10% و12% کاهش یافته است. AbstractOne of the most important issues which is dealt with across the world is effects of climate change effect on agriculture and food safety. Tehran province has the most wheat product rate among other provinces of country with having 60125 hectares under cultivation (1388-1389 harvesting year) and production rate of 3795.6 tons in the same year. So the objective of this study is to evaluate the effects of climate change on wheat production in Tehran. 58 years (1951-2009) meteorological data of Tehran weather station (mehrabad,Varamin, Imam khomini air port, Doshan tapeh, aghdasieh) was selected as a base for the study. After validating ClimGen statistic model Station data, 2020-2050 years' climate data were in put model. According to A2 and B2 climate change scenarios in two states (1. CO2 increase, 2. Simultaneous increase of CO2 and heat) the results of climate data were used by APSIM agricultural model along with related agricultural and pedological variables. In A1 and B2 scenarios, with the increase of CO2 alone and to the extent of 700 ppm and 525 ppm ignoring heat resonance the production rate increased 28% and 13% respectly rather than the control scenario. But at the other scenario by including heat increase to 4 and 2 the production falled to 10% and 12 %. Keywords: Tehran Province, Climate Change, Wheat, Climatic and Statistic Models, APSIM. 

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Possible effects of climate change on wheat crop in the state of Tehran

چکیده [English]

Effects of climate change on agriculture and food security is one of the most important issues in the world. Wheat consist a high proportion of land under cultivation and is one of the most important food sources for people. Tehran province with 60,125 hectares acreage of wheat (1389-1388 season) and producing 6/3795 tones in the same year produced the highest yield among other provinces. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of climate change on yield of wheat production in Tehran province. Meteorological data for 58 years (2009-1951 AD) of Tehran weather station was chosen in this study. After validation of the ClimGen statistical model for the study area, climate data of 2020 to 2050 were put into the model. Based on climate change scenarios A2 and B2 in two modes (1, increased CO2, 2- Increasing CO2 and temperature), soil variables associated with climate and agricultural data results were put into APSIM agriculture model. In complex scenarios A2 and B2, with rising CO2 levels respectively 700 ppm and 525 ppm alone and without the assumption of temperature fluctuations, production is increased by 28% and 13% respectively compared to the control scenario. But in the next scenario involving a temperature increase of 2 and 4 ° C respectively reduces production 10% and 12% compared to the control scenario. The study results of researchers who have studied on Co2 effects on plants, approve the positive impacts of CO2. Most researches show the negative impact of temperature rise to the product to which this study confirms

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Tehran Province- Climate Change- Wheat- Climatic and Statistic Models- APSIM

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